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Testing new system in NBA

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Posted: #51
I guess kbit  don't understand can you explain this in detail?

Thanks a million
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

Well went 4-5 tonight so our record is 16-9 for the season
hmmmmmmm!!!!!!!!
December 11 games

Boston 100.2                  Over
Washington   98.6            O/U 197

Charlotte  89.8                   Under
Dallas     101.4                   O/U 191.5

Portland 98.1                        Over
Utah      100.2                    O/U 194

Good luck as always

for example, the added averages for boston and washington equals 198.8, which is 1.8 points above the listed total.

while the added averages for utah/portland is 198.3 which is 4.3 points above the listed total.

using a 4 point "buffer" you would exclude the boston/washington game from your card and play the utah/portland game.

i hope this helps, if not let me know and ill try and explain further. ill also try and research the season so far with with the buffer in place.

maybe it will keep me from getting to drunk this weekend too!

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

I guess kbit  don't understand can you explain this in detail?



Expert- All he is saying is that you add a specific filter. You either play the under or over only when there is a 4 point difference between your total number of points and the actual total of the books.

So, for example:

Boston & Washington add up to 198.8  total points but the over/under is set at 197. Since 197 - 198.8 is less than 4 points, it would be a no play situation. On the other hand, you would bet the Portland - Utah game because there is a 4 point difference. Not sure if this could work out by you could always track both simultaneously.
 
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Posted: #54
thanks eli, you are correct.
 
when you take the average of the teams scoring, do you take into account home scoring and road scoring and home points against and road points against or is it the whole season averaged out?
 
I really like the way the Utah/Portland over is shaping up tonight if its home/road scoring and points against isn't taken into consideration.
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by kbit:

thanks eli, you are correct.
 
when you take the average of the teams scoring, do you take into account home scoring and road scoring and home points against and road points against or is it the whole season averaged out?
 


This was brought up earlier. I think it would make more sense to factor in the road/home factor into the calculations but that's just my preference. Don't know if it would help out the results or make them worse. Although, not sure where exactly to find up to date team by team statistics with those stats. Seems like all sites out there are only interested in a average per game stat.
 
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Posted: #56
Here's the up to date #'s for that if you want to test for tonight.
 
         Home    Road
Team Offense Offense
Atlanta 99.5 98.0
Boston 100.9 96.2
Charlotte 88.1 90.8
Chicago 104.3 95.2
Cleveland 106.2 98.9
Dallas 100.2 99.7
Denver 106.1 98.3
Detroit 95.8 96.0
Golden State 109.0 101.9
Houston 98.4 95.5
Indiana 102.1 94.5
LA Clippers 90.9 93.3
LA Lakers 109.3 107.0
Memphis 95.5 93.1
Miami 100.8 96.3
Milwaukee 93.7 94.5
Minnesota 94.0 96.0
New Jersey 99.2 103.2
New Orleans 97.6 97.8
New York 109.5 100.5
Oklahoma City 91.4 94.3
Orlando 101.6 96.9
Philadelphia 96.5 90.3
Phoenix 100.8 100.6
Portland 101.1 95.8
Sacramento 97.8 96.1
San Antonio 94.4 94.9
Toronto 100.6 91.6
Utah 104.0 95.9
Washington 97.3 98.4
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:



This was brought up earlier. I think it would make more sense to factor in the road/home factor into the calculations but that's just my preference. Don't know if it would help out the results or make them worse. Although, not sure where exactly to find up to date team by team statistics with those stats. Seems like all sites out there are only interested in a average per game stat.

Go to sportsmemo and then click the Stats tab. They have road/home stats for both teams. 
 
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Posted: #58

Yahoo sports has some great stat sheets, too.

 

 
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Posted: #59
Thanks everybody for your suggestion its always appreciated
Last night we had a  2-1 night making our record 18-10 with the Portland/Utah game going under
 
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Posted: #60
December 12,2008 still testing
Atlanta 97.5                 Over
Miami   99.1                  O/U 194.5

Toronto 97.1                   Under
New Jersey   101.8          O/U 207

NO            97.7               Over
Boston      101.1             O/U 189.5

Indiana 99.5                  Under
Detroit   95.6                O/U 200

Chicago 98.8                    Under
Memphis   94.6              O/U 202

SA 96.9                          over
Minn    95.7                     O/U 190.5

La Clippers 92.5                 Over
Portland       97.7              O/U 188

Sac 97.8                             Under
LA Lakers  108.3                  O/U 216
3 with out O/U
Update later
 
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Posted: #61
so these teams to play with the filter of 5 points
Toronto /New Jersey U 207
New Orleans/ Boston O 189
Chicago/Memphis  U 202
Sac/LA Lakers    U 216
 
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Posted: #62
still testing
December 12 all the games

Atlanta 97.5                 Over
Miami   99.1                  O/U 194.5

Toronto 97.1                   Under
New Jersey   101.8          O/U 207

NO            97.7               Over
Boston      101.1             O/U 189.5

Indiana 99.5                  Under
Detroit   95.6                O/U 200

Chicago 98.8                    Under
Memphis   94.6              O/U 202

SA 96.9                          over
Minn    95.7                     O/U 190.5

La Clippers 92.5                 Over
Portland       97.7              O/U 188

Sac 97.8                             Under
LA Lakers  108.3                  O/U 216

Phil     94.3                                Over
Cleveland   103.9                      O/U 190.5

Orlando 99.9                            Under
Phoenix    101.7                       O/U 211

Houston 96.4                             Under
Golden State   106.3                 O/U 217
 
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Posted: #63
so these teams to play with the filter of 5 points
Toronto /New Jersey U 207
New Orleans/ Boston O 189
Chicago/Memphis  U 202
Sac/LA Lakers    U 216
Orl/Phoenix          U 211
Houston/GS         U217
Is this right guys?
 
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Posted: #64
Are we using the average pts per game here or the home and away pts per game. By the way I think its great what you are doing here, coming up with a system  an avoiding the touts.
eyeball
 
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Posted: #65
Thats the point here eyeball, were here to help others, not only that its the excitement of finding something that works. WE strive to be the best at what we do. i really don't think it matters the away or home I just use average points its about the same.
 
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Posted: #66
do you think this would work for college basketball or no?

 
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Posted: #67
All of the lines dropped about 2 points from what was posted. The 200+ totals always seems to come out under with this system. That kinda worries me but outcomes are doing alright. Keep this up, it may not hit every game but it is hitting at a profitable percentage.
 
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Posted: #68
Sup guys new to the forum, but anyway I do have a new system that i believe actually works and it doesnt just pertain to the NBA, its using all leagues and doesnt matter if u keep up with the league or not, Im currently testing it I went 6-0 on my last wagers you can checkout my "completed bets" by looking at my profile of course....
 
I will post the suggested winning picks from my system today Saturday Dec 13th at 5pm........
 
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Posted: #69
Is there a way we can find the average points scored in head to head match ups? I think this would make it more accurate.
 
 
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Posted: #70
I was on a trip and never got to put the O/U out for the games on Saturday so here they are

Cleveland 102.7       Over  8     W
Atlanta     97          O/U 187.5

Detroit         96.2             Over         L
Charlotte      89.7              O/U 184

Wash  97.7              Under       W
Phil    93.8              O/U   195.5

New Jersey 100.8         Under              L
Chicago       99.3           O/U    204.5

OKC       93.1                      Under 8W
Dallas     101.2                     O/U 205

Indiana         100.1             Under    L
Milwaukee   96.9                 O/U 204.5
 
GS 106.3                        Under       L
Denver 103.9                  O/U 230
  
Orl   100.5                      Under          W
Utah 99.8                       O/U 202

NY             105                 Under 8 W
Sacramento 97.7              O/U 218.5

Houston 96.8                     Under         W
LA Clippers    93.7            O/U 191         

The top 3 were 3-0
Overall today we were 6-3
making us 24-13 for the season not bad
if its over or under 8 its a top play
 
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Posted: #71
good stuff expert ... I like the top play concept. It usually helps to reduce the amount of plays but have to be careful with the juice on the totals.
 
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Posted: #72
Thanks eli , we strive to get the best
here is todays NBA test again

December 14

No 96.8               Over
Toronto 97.3         O/U 192

Miami    98.6                Over
Memphis 95                O/U 193.5

OKC    93.1             Under
SA     96.9             O/U 196

Min            95.3         Under
LA Lakers 108.5         O/U 209.5

Good luck
 
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Posted: #73
OKC
SA        Under 196 Top play

Minn
LA Lakers Under  209.5 is another but not as strong
 
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Posted: #74
ex,
what do you mean by over 8 play being a top play, i may have missed something
 
 
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Posted: #75
I ment 6 my mistake, so if the total is off by 6 or more its a top play
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