Posted:
#1101
Friday we have double dip A games on Boston and Washington.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
Post All-Star Home System
Posted:
#1103
Dodgers heading to a final game on post All-Star system.
The success rate has been proven over the years with the system. While there would be more losses, that's exactly why I don't think you should ever play more than three games.
When I started tracking this, I did it for six games because the record was based on the homestand. The record I keep is still for the homestand. Regardless, best of luck if you're still playing Dodgers in any form.
Posted:
#1105
Dodgers become second loss on system since 1999. While I maintain the record I keep is for six games, I've also advised never go beyond 3 or 4 games (still would have been big loss). Nevertheless, you can make nice money on this system even if you play just the first two games. It is what it is and we me move on.
Diamondbacks on Game 3.
Updated through Sept. 9
Game 1 wins – 12
Game 2 wins – 6
Game 3 wins – 1
Posted:
#1107
Quote Originally Posted by Sabbathen:
No mention of only playing 3-4 games, or only the first two in your covers article. Pretty misleading.
No mention of only playing 3-4 games, or only the first two in your covers article. Pretty misleading.
Nothing misleading about this system. Everyone can play it however they want. Record is based on 6 games. Try going back to page 30 on something I've posted in the past.
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:
CKP, do you make it a play when a target team only has a 5 game home stand or does it need to be 6?
The Dodgers have a 5 game stand starting 7/26, and SF 8/26. Just wondering how you handle these so I can have my schedule match yours. I show 41 series with the 5 gamers or 39 if they don't qualify. Lots of plays this year in both systems!
I don't count them as part of the system record but usually play them any way.
For what it's worth, I've changed my strategy on the system over the last few years. While the system is a 6-game system, I start cutting teams after 3 games and invest in new plays. Rarely did it ever go to 5 or 6 games, but I get so annoyed these days that I don't have the patience to deal with these teams.
The record does stand for itself. But I do remember a few years ago teams going to 3 and 4 games when they were matched with other teams in the system. I'm sure that will be the case this season.
Thanks for all your help.
Posted:
#1111
Quote Originally Posted by CKP22:
For what it's worth, I've changed my strategy on the system over the last few years. While the system is a 6-game system, I start cutting teams after 3 games and invest in new plays. Rarely did it ever go to 5 or 6 games, but I get so annoyed these days that I don't have the patience to deal with these teams.
Thanks for all your help.
Nothing misleading about this system. Everyone can play it however they want. Record is based on 6 games. Try going back to page 30 on something I've posted in the past.
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:
CKP, do you make it a play when a target team only has a 5 game home stand or does it need to be 6?
The Dodgers have a 5 game stand starting 7/26, and SF 8/26. Just wondering how you handle these so I can have my schedule match yours. I show 41 series with the 5 gamers or 39 if they don't qualify. Lots of plays this year in both systems!
I don't count them as part of the system record but usually play them any way.
For what it's worth, I've changed my strategy on the system over the last few years. While the system is a 6-game system, I start cutting teams after 3 games and invest in new plays. Rarely did it ever go to 5 or 6 games, but I get so annoyed these days that I don't have the patience to deal with these teams.
The record does stand for itself. But I do remember a few years ago teams going to 3 and 4 games when they were matched with other teams in the system. I'm sure that will be the case this season.
Thanks for all your help.
"The record does stand for itself" doesn't mean much from a betting perspective because it's not a count of units.
Yes the 583 wins equals 583 units won, however those 2 losses does not indicate the amount of units lost.
With regards to the recent Dodgers 6 game chase loss, here's what that single loss equates to (Note: using the Covers closing line):
Game 1 (Sept 4th -170): -1.7 units
Game 2 (Sept 5th -150): -4.05 units
Game 3 (Sept 6th -183): -12.35 units
Game 4 (Sept 7th -320): -61.12 units
Game 5 (Sept 8th -220): -176.48 units
Game 6 (Sept 9th -240): -616.08 units
Total: -871.78 units
So in the grand scheme of things, anyone playing this system according to how it's drawn up is down a ton considering I only calculated the one recent loss. I think people should be made aware of this as I agree with 'Sabbathen' it's a very misleading record you are tracking in terms of 'a good system'.
If the whole point of this Forum is to help each other win, the right thing to do would be to close this thread and re-start with your 2 or 3 games chase system rather than referencing some 6-game chase which is not only not profitable, but also not what you are even playing yourself. Or continue it, but track units alongside the record.
Posted:
#1112
Nuscas, Your numbers make sense if someone did a strict Martingale chase all the way through. Many people have commented on the different ways they play this system regarding their bankroll. Some do labby lines, some play the run line on anything over -180, others break it down to 3 two game chases.
I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone on this thread that
played all 6 games of the LAD series at that high juice. Since everyone is responsible for their own bankroll and how they wager on each series, using units won/loss would be kind of meaningless for most of the followers because I doubt many use a strict Martingale chase method.
Just my opinion, I could be wrong. Would like to hear from other posters on how they dealt with this series. I personally played game 1 and then stopped. Hate chasing with high juice, rolled that Loss into other series and already got it back.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
Posted:
#1113
I'm in between what Danrules24 is saying and what Nuscas/Sabbathen are saying. In following this thread, there are conversations quite often about how people manage their money in different ways to make sure they're never risking a ton of money. So it has been discussed many times that people fold their losses from 3 straight losses into a new series or that people never risk more than X dollars on a game. So strictly looking at how a Martingale budget would have you down big isn't necessarily accurate. That being said, if we're hard pressed to find anyone on the thread that follows the 6 game chase, why is the 583-2 record relevant? The 583-2 record strictly says that 2 teams ever have lost a 6 game homestand (of teams that qualify). If nobody here is chasing for 6 games, why are we discussing that record? Wouldn't a record for the first 2 or 3 games be much more relevant if that's all people are chasing? CKP always posts how many Game 1 wins and Game 2 wins and etc. for the current season, but I'd like to see that for the entire history of this system if this system isn't designed to go for a 6 game chase. Saying "this team will win one of the next 6 games" seems to only be relevant if someone is chasing them for 6 games. If nobody is chasing that team for 6 games who cares if they win game 4 or 5 or 6 when they've already lost you for that series.
Posted:
#1114
Even with the six-game chase and how I divide up my bets, I have been very successful. To say it's not a profitable system, is just not accurate because everyone plays different amounts.
Starting next season, I will break it down to a 2-game or 3-game chase. Haven't decided. Anyone willing to question if that's profitable based on the numbers?
If playing two games
585 total series -- 513 wins
if playing three games
585 total series -- 565 wins
Thanks for all the input.
Posted:
#1116
Did some quick back testing just for this year so far, using oddsportal which takes the average closing odds of 50+ books.
2 game chase to win 1 unit overall = loss of 15.47 units
Putting 1 unit on 1st game and another 1 unit on second game if first loses, no chasing = loss of 2.06 units
Putting 1 unit on 1st game only = loss of 1.37 units
Still a couple of series to go for this year but based on current numbers, I find it hard to see how you can make a profit this year. The strike rate may be good but the juice completely wipes that out. You can chase for more but the Dodgers would have wiped you by game 4. Happy to be proven wrong with anyone's actual numbers that show how.
Posted:
#1117
Quote Originally Posted by Sabbathen:
Did some quick back testing just for this year so far, using oddsportal which takes the average closing odds of 50+ books.
Did some quick back testing just for this year so far, using oddsportal which takes the average closing odds of 50+ books.
2 game chase to win 1 unit overall = loss of 15.47 units
Putting 1 unit on 1st game and another 1 unit on second game if first loses, no chasing = loss of 2.06 units
Putting 1 unit on 1st game only = loss of 1.37 units
Still a couple of series to go for this year but based on current numbers, I find it hard to see how you can make a profit this year. The strike rate may be good but the juice completely wipes that out. You can chase for more but the Dodgers would have wiped you by game 4. Happy to be proven wrong with anyone's actual numbers that show how.
I think you're maybe missing CKP's point. This is not a STRICT system. If you choose to use it, yes, you should play it to win, but not blindly. You need to keep your eyes open and use the system guidelines to your advantage. Recently, the Rockies were having a difficult time, so laying off them was wise. When the Indians went 15 games over .500, they deserved a look despite not "qualifying" at the break. While contrary to the system in STRICT terms, these plays - or non plays made sense.
On the recent Dodger sweep, note that they had lost 8 of 9 BEFORE beginning that homestand where they dropped all 7. (Maybe fading the Dodgers at still crazy odds until they prove they can win 3 of every 4 games might work now?)
I'm not advocating any heavy-duty handicapping here - there are other forums for that. But especially as we move into the last few weeks where some top teams may be resting players, it's good to at least look at the games a bit - along with the upcoming pitching rotations. BOL to all.
Hot Forum Topics
