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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

    «First Previous 789 ... 454647 Next Last»
    therizz
    duby
    kkirby99
    jonnymega
    jakeandba
    ...
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    «First Previous 789 ... 454647 Next Last»
     
    therizz
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 1:10 PM ET #151

    That juice is so high I think it is RL or no play for me.  Juice on MIL game is also down to even.  People are fading them today.
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    That juice is so high I think it is RL or no play for me.  Juice on MIL game is also down to even.  People are fading them today.
     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 1:17 PM ET #152

    Quote Originally Posted by duby:

     

    Great work!!  Did u by any chance run the numbers using the RL for all plays?

     

    Thanks

    I

    I didn't but it would be pretty easy for me to go back through it.  Will try to post this info tonight

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    Quote Originally Posted by duby:

     

    Great work!!  Did u by any chance run the numbers using the RL for all plays?

     

    Thanks

    I

    I didn't but it would be pretty easy for me to go back through it.  Will try to post this info tonight

     
    duby
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 1:20 PM ET #153

    Great thanks for your hard work!
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    Great thanks for your hard work!
     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 1:41 PM ET #154

    Duby,

    Are you interested in the overall record or game by game?

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    Duby,

    Are you interested in the overall record or game by game?

     
    duby
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 1:55 PM ET #155

    Just overall W/L record using the RL for all games

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    Just overall W/L record using the RL for all games

     
    kkirby99
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:03 PM ET #156

    Milw puts up a 10-spot in the 1st
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    Milw puts up a 10-spot in the 1st
     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:04 PM ET #157

    Okay this was pretty easy to figure out.  So playing RL for ALL games adds 17 losses:

    242-26

    only playing RL above -190 adds 5 losses = 254-14

    Playing RL on ALL games reg. of odds adds 15 game 2's, and 13 game 3 wins

     

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    Okay this was pretty easy to figure out.  So playing RL for ALL games adds 17 losses:

    242-26

    only playing RL above -190 adds 5 losses = 254-14

    Playing RL on ALL games reg. of odds adds 15 game 2's, and 13 game 3 wins

     

     
    jonnymega
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:10 PM ET #158

    Word that Kkirby. LOL!

    Go Milw!
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    Word that Kkirby. LOL!

    Go Milw!
     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:11 PM ET #159

    For 2006:

    Playing ALL games on RL regardless of odds:

    242-26

    Game 1 = 132-136, 49.3%

    Game 2 = 68-68, 50%

    Game 3 = 42-26, 61.8%

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    For 2006:

    Playing ALL games on RL regardless of odds:

    242-26

    Game 1 = 132-136, 49.3%

    Game 2 = 68-68, 50%

    Game 3 = 42-26, 61.8%

     
    jakeandba
    jakeandba
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:14 PM ET #160

    yep for the hell of it i played Mil, thinking might as well go down with the ship....lol

     

    Rizz:

    Just to clarify when you say all plays, is that at -1.5 rl with odds starting at -150? or is that all fav down to -101 on up?

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    yep for the hell of it i played Mil, thinking might as well go down with the ship....lol

     

    Rizz:

    Just to clarify when you say all plays, is that at -1.5 rl with odds starting at -150? or is that all fav down to -101 on up?

     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:17 PM ET #161

    Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

    Milw puts up a 10-spot in the 1st

    I put them in a 1U parlay today.  Hopefully they finish it up

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    Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

    Milw puts up a 10-spot in the 1st

    I put them in a 1U parlay today.  Hopefully they finish it up

     
    revguy800
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:17 PM ET #162

    rizz,  we start new series tommorrow right?
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    rizz,  we start new series tommorrow right?
     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:32 PM ET #163

    Jake,

    Those numbers are playing ML regardless of odds, even if the team is a dog.  Most of those losses are in series that start at -145- 155.  I would not recommend playing those on the RL unless you feel extremely strongly about it.  GL with MIL today

    Revguy, 

    we should have some more series starting tomorrow.  I have 3 or 4 starting tomorrow in my other system as well.

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    Jake,

    Those numbers are playing ML regardless of odds, even if the team is a dog.  Most of those losses are in series that start at -145- 155.  I would not recommend playing those on the RL unless you feel extremely strongly about it.  GL with MIL today

    Revguy, 

    we should have some more series starting tomorrow.  I have 3 or 4 starting tomorrow in my other system as well.

     
    duby
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:53 PM ET #164

    Thats perfect. Thanks for the info Rizz!
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    Thats perfect. Thanks for the info Rizz!
     
    duby
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 3:03 PM ET #165

    Ok you confused me a bit with your last post.  When you have a record of :

    Playing ALL games on RL regardless of odds:

    242-26

     

    You do mean betting on a team that has first game of series odds of -145/-150 or more right? Then you keep chasing until a win betting the RL regarless of odds of game 2 and game 3.  Is this correct?

     

    Thanks

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    Ok you confused me a bit with your last post.  When you have a record of :

    Playing ALL games on RL regardless of odds:

    242-26

     

    You do mean betting on a team that has first game of series odds of -145/-150 or more right? Then you keep chasing until a win betting the RL regarless of odds of game 2 and game 3.  Is this correct?

     

    Thanks

     
    jakeandba
    jakeandba
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 3:06 PM ET #166

    Rizz:

    Thanks for the help.  last questions, do know if this question has been asked.  lets say team A, the first game in the series is -200 ml and bet the rl. 

    This first bet loses and then the next game for team A the -140ml?

    question do the numbers support play the  ml for this game or play the RL?

    If this middle play loses and the last game in the series, the ml is -180 or less do the numbers support playing the ml?

    Guess what I am trying to determine when is the best time to play the ml versus the rl after the first bet loses, based on 2nd and 3rd game odds.

    if it is still possible to get a copy of the database you were offering?

     

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    Rizz:

    Thanks for the help.  last questions, do know if this question has been asked.  lets say team A, the first game in the series is -200 ml and bet the rl. 

    This first bet loses and then the next game for team A the -140ml?

    question do the numbers support play the  ml for this game or play the RL?

    If this middle play loses and the last game in the series, the ml is -180 or less do the numbers support playing the ml?

    Guess what I am trying to determine when is the best time to play the ml versus the rl after the first bet loses, based on 2nd and 3rd game odds.

    if it is still possible to get a copy of the database you were offering?

     

     
    revguy800
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 3:15 PM ET #167

    Quote Originally Posted by therizz:

    Jake,

    Those numbers are playing ML regardless of odds, even if the team is a dog.  Most of those losses are in series that start at -145- 155.  I would not recommend playing those on the RL unless you feel extremely strongly about it.  GL with MIL today

    Revguy, 

    we should have some more series starting tomorrow.  I have 3 or 4 starting tomorrow in my other system as well.

     

    I didnt know you were running 2 systems i will be ready for the new stuff

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by therizz:

    Jake,

    Those numbers are playing ML regardless of odds, even if the team is a dog.  Most of those losses are in series that start at -145- 155.  I would not recommend playing those on the RL unless you feel extremely strongly about it.  GL with MIL today

    Revguy, 

    we should have some more series starting tomorrow.  I have 3 or 4 starting tomorrow in my other system as well.

     

    I didnt know you were running 2 systems i will be ready for the new stuff

     

     
    kkirby99
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 3:44 PM ET #168

    I wonder if the vaunted Milwaukee bullpen can hang on to a five run lead.
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    I wonder if the vaunted Milwaukee bullpen can hang on to a five run lead.
     
    revguy800
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 4:40 PM ET #169

    never can tell, hope they keep hitting
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    never can tell, hope they keep hitting
     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 5:28 PM ET #170

    Quote Originally Posted by duby:

    Ok you confused me a bit with your last post.  When you have a record of :

    Playing ALL games on RL regardless of odds:

    242-26

     

    You do mean betting on a team that has first game of series odds of -145/-150 or more right? Then you keep chasing until a win betting the RL regarless of odds of game 2 and game 3.  Is this correct?

     

    Thanks

    Right.  The first game makes it become a play based on the odds.  Then I would chase all three games on the RL for that record even if the odds were even or I was betting on a dog.  This is how I was first looking into playing this, then I saw the ML numbers were significantly better.  A few pages back I posted all the record for 2007-9 by playing this system just on the ML, ML + playing RL for any game greater than -190 (most years adds 2 or 3 series losses, but less juice), or playing every game on the RL regardless of odds.  I keep the record based on the ML plays.  I think thus far all series would have covered on the RL unless STL loses tonight.  I just want to give everyone the most info possible so they can play whatever method they feel most comfortable.  Personally, I play ML on 150 to 170, then I split money on ML and RL 170-190, and RL if it is higher than 190.  If a series goes off higher than 190 I keep posting the plays for the RL plays but count the win when the series hits on ML.  Sorry for the delayed response had to clean my deck.

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    Quote Originally Posted by duby:

    Ok you confused me a bit with your last post.  When you have a record of :

    Playing ALL games on RL regardless of odds:

    242-26

     

    You do mean betting on a team that has first game of series odds of -145/-150 or more right? Then you keep chasing until a win betting the RL regarless of odds of game 2 and game 3.  Is this correct?

     

    Thanks

    Right.  The first game makes it become a play based on the odds.  Then I would chase all three games on the RL for that record even if the odds were even or I was betting on a dog.  This is how I was first looking into playing this, then I saw the ML numbers were significantly better.  A few pages back I posted all the record for 2007-9 by playing this system just on the ML, ML + playing RL for any game greater than -190 (most years adds 2 or 3 series losses, but less juice), or playing every game on the RL regardless of odds.  I keep the record based on the ML plays.  I think thus far all series would have covered on the RL unless STL loses tonight.  I just want to give everyone the most info possible so they can play whatever method they feel most comfortable.  Personally, I play ML on 150 to 170, then I split money on ML and RL 170-190, and RL if it is higher than 190.  If a series goes off higher than 190 I keep posting the plays for the RL plays but count the win when the series hits on ML.  Sorry for the delayed response had to clean my deck.

     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 5:34 PM ET #171

    Quote Originally Posted by jakeandba:

    Rizz:

    Thanks for the help.  last questions, do know if this question has been asked.  lets say team A, the first game in the series is -200 ml and bet the rl. 

    This first bet loses and then the next game for team A the -140ml?

    question do the numbers support play the  ml for this game or play the RL?

    If this middle play loses and the last game in the series, the ml is -180 or less do the numbers support playing the ml?

    Guess what I am trying to determine when is the best time to play the ml versus the rl after the first bet loses, based on 2nd and 3rd game odds.

    if it is still possible to get a copy of the database you were offering?

     

    Jake a few pages back I put a summary up of all the data for last three seasons.  A series like this would fall into the -190 criteria.  So playing all series like this with RL for game 1, then ML for any series game better than -190 would add about 2-3 series losses per year but will be significantly decreasing your juice.  Personally I would likely play a series like that on RL for game 1, then ML for game 2.  I am also using a three line labby system for all my plays to mitigate losses.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jakeandba:

    Rizz:

    Thanks for the help.  last questions, do know if this question has been asked.  lets say team A, the first game in the series is -200 ml and bet the rl. 

    This first bet loses and then the next game for team A the -140ml?

    question do the numbers support play the  ml for this game or play the RL?

    If this middle play loses and the last game in the series, the ml is -180 or less do the numbers support playing the ml?

    Guess what I am trying to determine when is the best time to play the ml versus the rl after the first bet loses, based on 2nd and 3rd game odds.

    if it is still possible to get a copy of the database you were offering?

     

    Jake a few pages back I put a summary up of all the data for last three seasons.  A series like this would fall into the -190 criteria.  So playing all series like this with RL for game 1, then ML for any series game better than -190 would add about 2-3 series losses per year but will be significantly decreasing your juice.  Personally I would likely play a series like that on RL for game 1, then ML for game 2.  I am also using a three line labby system for all my plays to mitigate losses.

     
    duby
    duby
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 5:55 PM ET #172

    Excellent very clear now...Thanks!
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    Excellent very clear now...Thanks!
     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 8:23 PM ET #173

    Hit my parlay with BAL and MIL!!

    Lets go STL

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    Hit my parlay with BAL and MIL!!

    Lets go STL

     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 8:27 PM ET #174

    Results for 4/18:

    System record 15-0-1

    Additional series 3-0-0

     

    Series #18 (game 3 wins)   MIL  

    ***Series #19 (game 3) 8:05  nym @  STL -265, RL pending

    BOL

    Game 1 wins =13

    Game 2 wins = 1

    Game 3 wins = 1

    **STL line only included to follow for those that played them on RL, has already been included as a system win***

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    Results for 4/18:

    System record 15-0-1

    Additional series 3-0-0

     

    Series #18 (game 3 wins)   MIL  

    ***Series #19 (game 3) 8:05  nym @  STL -265, RL pending

    BOL

    Game 1 wins =13

    Game 2 wins = 1

    Game 3 wins = 1

    **STL line only included to follow for those that played them on RL, has already been included as a system win***

     
     
    jakeandba
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 8:32 PM ET #175

    Rizz: 

    Are you willing to send out the database you are using?  If not that is cool, thanks.

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    Rizz: 

    Are you willing to send out the database you are using?  If not that is cool, thanks.

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