Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

I've been following the thread and took Oaktown at -150 this morning. They've been playing pretty well in this young season and should beat Bal in Oak at least once. Additionally,  the juice should be manageable.

GL!

Yeah,

That should be a system play.  Sorry guys I completely missed it.  I didn't think any new series started until tomorrow.  Good luck!

Plays for 4/15:

System record 9-0-0

Additional series 3-0-0

 

Series #13  (game 1) 10:15  bal @ OAK -148

BOL

Game 1 wins =8

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0

 

okay we didn't miss it.. Thanks for picking this up guys.  I will try to stay on top of it the best I can.  I will try to post the plays the night before so if you don't see a post from me try to remind me if you can because I have likely missed it.

im watching the series like a hawk...lol....got a bunch starting tomorrow

Plays for 4/16:

System record 9-0-0

Additional series 3-0-0

Series #13  (game 1) 10:15  bal @ OAK -148--pending

Series #14 (game 1) 2:20     hou @ CHC -173

Series #15 (game 1) 7:05     fla  @ PHI -245, -1.5 ??

Series #16 (game 1) 7:05     tex  @ NYY -201, -1.5 ??

Series #17 (game 1) 7:10     tb  @ BOS -181

Series #18 (game 1) 7:05     MIL -157 @ was

Series #19 (game 1) 8:15     nym  @ STL -240, -1.5??

Series #20 (game 1) 10:10    det @ SEA -181

Series #21 (game 1)  10:10   sf  @ LAD -145

BOL

Game 1 wins =8

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0

**can't believe how many plays we are having so far.  Seems like every series has a heavy favorite!

Plays for 4/16:

System record 9-0-0

Additional series 3-0-0

Series #13  (game 1 wins)  OAK -148

Series #14 (game 1) 2:20     hou @ CHC -173

Series #15 (game 1) 7:05     fla  @ PHI -245, -1.5 ??

Series #16 (game 1) 7:05     tex  @ NYY -201, -1.5 ??

Series #17 (game 1) 7:10     tb  @ BOS -181

Series #18 (game 1) 7:05     MIL -157 @ was

Series #19 (game 1) 8:15     nym  @ STL -240, -1.5??

Series #20 (game 1) 10:10    det @ SEA -181

Series #21 (game 1)  10:10   sf  @ LAD -145

BOL

Game 1 wins =9

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0

**can't believe how many plays we are having so far.  Seems like every series has a heavy favorite!

Oakland took care of that series PDQ

yea i figured oak would roll, dam wish i would have loaded up, LOL

not sure what im gonna play this week but i like some of the home dogs too....here are the tms i like to win 1 gm....plus oakland which i already played last night...

clev +123

tor +100

TB +162

minn -124

SF +136

Hey Rizz,
Great research and thanks for putting in the time to post it up.
I have a question about the labby you are using. Do you use the 3 line labby for each team, then carry it over to their potential next series, or a random following series?
For example, say the soxs get swept. Do you wait until they are favored again to start up the labby, or say your next set of match-ups has Colorado favored and you use the soxs loss labby here?
I hope thats not to confusing.
Thanks for you time!

Rizz, thanks for your system. I am going to start playing your games. I do hope I get it right as I like the numbers I mean who doesnt like to win right? lol

Winoracer,

You could play it however you wanted to but I would just play the next series with the same lines.  If you wait until a certain teams next series that money you lost is still sitting there and we want to work to get it back.  Let some of the other teams do the work for you.  Playing it straight up could be bad esp with the juice on some of these games.  We have a winning pct on all levels in past seasons data which will hopefully allow us to cross off lines more quickly.  BOL

Revguy,

thanks for taking a look.  Money management is key as a loss playing a straight chase could cost us a lot of units.  I am also trying to mitigate the juice by playing RL on the huge favorites and splitting money between ML and RL on the rest to essentially be a push if a team wins by one (see previous posts).

Plays for 4/16:

System record 10-0-0

Additional series 3-0-0

Series #14 (game 1) 2:20     hou @ CHC -171, RL +115

Series #15 (game 1) 7:05     fla  @ PHI -260, RL  -120

Series #16 (game 1) 7:05     tex  @ NYY -201, RL -110

Series #17 (game 1) 7:10     tb  @ BOS -181, RL -+115

Series #18 (game 1) 7:05     MIL -157 @ was

Series #19 (game 1) 8:15     nym  @ STL -240, RL -110

Series #20 (game 1) 10:10    det @ SEA -181, RL +115

Series #21 (game 1)  10:10   sf  @ LAD -150

BOL

Game 1 wins =9

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0

**i see a lot of inflated juice in a lot of these lines.  I am not sure how some of these teams warrant laying that kind of juice...

I just want to point out that TB/BOS and SF/LAD series contradict the plays in my sweep chase system as TB and SF both swept teams on the road in their last series.  Just might want to pay a little closer attention to these series.  I think the LAD line is inflated but each person should cap these series individually and make the plays they feel are the best.  good luck everyone

which system are you playing re the contradicting plays?

I will probably play boston tonight and see what happens.  If I get the boston win tonight, may start playing tb tomorrow.  The SF/LAD series has me conflicted I may just sit that one out.  I don't think either team will sweep the other, but you can never know for sure.   You have any thoughts avenue?

play them both!

Okay let me see if I got this right.
det @ SEA -181, RL +115

Take Sea on RL and ML or just RL?

I just post the odds for everyone depending on how they want to play it.  I personally split money between RL and ML for -150-190, and play RL for higher than 200.  Just depends how aggressive you want to be.  The stats are kept based on the ML.  Playing odds above -190 will likely add 2 or 3 losses for the year (see previous posts) but will reduce the juice on the losses.  I split my money on RL and ML to essentially get a financial push if a team wins by 1.  I am also running a 3 line labby to mitigate losses.  BOL

Damn you cards!  Give up two meaningless runs in the ninth to F my RL wager!

Plays for 4/16:

System record 14-0-0

Additional series 3-0-0

Series #14 (game 1 wins)  CHC -171 , RL 

Series #15 (game 1 wins) PHI -260, RL 

Series #16 (game 1 wins)  NYY -201, RL

Series #17 (game 1) 7:10     tb  @ BOS -181, RL -+115--pend

Series #18 (game 1)     MIL -157 @ was  

Series #19 (game 1 wins)   STL -240 , RL

Series #20 (game 1) 10:10    det @ SEA -181, RL +115 -pend

Series #21 (game 1)  10:10   sf  @ LAD -150--pend

BOL

Game 1 wins =13

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0

** I will post the NYY and STL plays for tomorrow for those that played them on the RL.  As I stated previously the record will be kept based on ML plays as I don't want to confuse things***

rizz, im new to all chase systems we lost on the brewers I played it to win 20.00 thats my goal unit how much would i play them tommorrow? and a fyi they have lost the first game of every series this year

Revguy,

 depends on how you plan to play this and whether you bet runline or not.  If you played ML you would have layed 30 to win 20.  If you are playing straight chase (which I do not recommend) you would need to bet to win the 30 you lost + 20 you want to win.  So at -150 you would need to bet 75 to win 50.  I hope you played some of the other plays to make some profit today???

 

If you are playing labby lines and lost 30 today:

10-10-10-10-15

10-10-10-10-15

10-10-10-10-10

or more aggressively

10-10-10-25

10-10-10-25

10-10-10-10

In the less aggressive route you would bet to win 25 tomorrow.  More aggressive bet to win 35.  Hope this makes sense.  As you can see the juice can really kill us in these plays in our losses we have to work to mitigate these the best we can.  Keep track of your lines however you want to play them.  The next game 1 you have you will be betting more than you did today.