Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

Check that!  Since the plays start at -150 odds, maybe it would be best to play ML from -150 to -175

2007 AL:   -1.5 RL on all plays= 133-23

                  ML plays = 151-5

Game 1 wins = 105    (105-51, 67.3%)

Game 2 wins = 34     (34-17, 66.7%)

Game 3 wins = 12     (12-5, 70.6%) 

Let's hope the 2007 NL numbers are right there too.  Looks like we might have a pretty damn good MLB season!

Losses for AL 2007

Team (record for year)        Opp         Line            Date

LAA (20-1)                           KC           -260              6/27

NYY (27-2)                          @COL       -170              6/21

                                          LAA           -145             5/27

BAL (2-2)                           WAS           -172             6/14

                                         TB               -163             8/30

---ok guys I don't want to try to dismiss these losses, but I think we SHOULD NOT play interleague games.  Also, the -145 line is borderline but I tried to include these type of games in the analysis because I could see that being a play depending on where the line started.  The thing that concerns me is BAL, obviously a team of little value in that they only met criteria 4 times for the season, losing twice...  When we feel a play like this is posted we have to try to skip it if at all possible.  I would advise using extreme caution in playing these as a straight chase even though we will follow it that way and consider labby lines as the game by game plays consistently are showing good percentages.  I will get the NL for 2007 up as soon as I can and will run it for the sweep chase system also this week.  Two of our plays overlap with that system starting tomorrow.

Plays for 4/11, play at your own risk:

System record 1-0-0

 

Series #1 (game 1) 1:05          kc @ DET -195

Series #2 (game 1) 2:25         mil @ CHC -155

Series #3 (game 1) 3:05         was @ PHI -270, -1.5 RL -130

**Series #4 (game 1) 4:15         BOS -132*** @ minn

Series #5 (game 1) 4:15         hou @ STL -220, -1.5 RL (even)

****Series #6 (game 1) 6:35         ATL -115*** @ sd

Series #7 (game 1) 7:05         TB -143 @ bal

******Series #8 (game 1) 7:15         cin @ FLA -138****

Series #9 (game 1) 10:15       pit @ SF -160

 

****Proceed with caution.  This system was tested using the closing lines.  Three of these games are dropping below the appropriate range.  I would love to test this system against opening lines if someone knows where we can get those numbers for the past two or three seasons it would be very helpful and could allow us to play more games with reduced juice.  If these games go off less than -145 or so, I will not consider them system plays.

Okay guys, I was worried about all these line swings.  I was able to secure a database with all the opening and closing lines.  I ran the same assessment as we have been doing and played all teams with opening lines of -145 or higher regardless of where it ended up.  I also excluded interleague games and got 260-7 for 2009. 

Do you have the breakdown for gm 1,2,3 wins?  

Finally finished NL for 2007 and it would not have been a good season for this system = 101-8.

2007 Combined = 252-13

yea i think you may have to narrow it down and pick a series you really like with good odds and then just chase that series...last week i did it with SF and they hit on gm1, gonna chase the TOR series starting tonight, i think they'll steal one at home....also thinkin about chasing SF again this home stand...

For the NL 2007, did you still have good results for the game 1 wins?

NL 2007

101-8, playing all games -190 or higher on -1.5 L = 101-9

Game 1 wins = 67         (67-42, 61.5%)

Game 2 wins = 24         (24-18, 57.1%)

Game 3 wins = 10         (10-8,  55.5%)     101-68, 59.8%

 

Awesome work, rizz. You totally rule.

I was already playing a top 5 bottom 5 series chase. I added your system to my plays today.

Are you finding the favorite to be the fav throughout each game of the series? What if the chase was on the team that was favored on each particular game of the series? Sorry if this Q had already been addressed earlier.

Thnx and GL!

Jonny,

Sorry for the delay in response I got called in tonight.  As I was backtesting I saw that the odds were fairly variable and it was not uncommon to be playing for a win on a team that was even or an underdog.  I did not look at playing the favorite each game to get a win but it might work.  I can think of at least a couple instances were a team was heavily favored in game 1 and were then underdogs in game 2/3 and it resulted in a system loss.  The majority of the losses come with the team favored in all three.  We could test it???  I bought a database today that goes back to 2003 with opening and closing lines and scores.  I can forward it to anyone who is interested. 

we should probably starting keeping track of the bank roll, just to see what kind of cash it brings in, even after losing a couple high juice gms..

Plays for 4/13, play at your own risk:

System record 5-0-0

 

Series #1 (game 2) 1:05          kc @ DET -123

****Series #4 (game 2 pend)        BOS  @ minn, next 4/14 

****Series #6 (game 2 pend)         ATL*** @ sd, next 4/14

****Series #8 (game 2) 7:10        cin @ FLA -119

Series #10 (game 1) 1:05           laa @ NYY -200, -105 (-1.5)

Series #11 (game 1) 4:10           ariz @ LAD -163

Series #12 (game 1) 8:40           nym @ COL -148

 

Game 1 wins = 5

Game 2 wins = 0

Game 3 wins = 0

****Proceed with caution.  These plays fall outside of the original system.  I need to backtest against the opening lines to determine if plays like these should be included.  They are listed here in case anyone played these series.  I did not and actually bet on Minn today.  We need to watch the COL line closely also as it may drop out of being a system play.

     I've found that on some chase systems it can be to one's benefit
to place a bet early before the line gets too juicy. I was able to catch the NYY game at  -180 this morning on Sportsbetting.com and it's -210 now. This probably would work better on B and C games where you have to make a play and you think the line will go up.

Great record to start!

I agree jonny.  We have to try to avoid the heavy juice as much as we can.  If this system turns into playing heavy favorites on all three games often the losses will absolutely kill us.. I like the percentages of each game of the series and am playing it as 3 line labby system to buffer the losses and am playing a split on RL and ML so a game will essentially push if it wins at -1.  I think this system is way too risky to play straight chase but to each their own.  I am also watching this games closely with opening lines that qualify them but then drop.  Some of the plays we have by backtesting will have started as a play and others became plays because the line moved up above -150 due to the lines.  I now have the data set to hopefully sort this out but it will take some time for me to run it.

Okay guys want to put a summary up of what we know so far, so people can make an educated decision as to whether to follow any of these plays in a chase or any other manner.

2009 Combined Record 246-7  (3 losses from interleague play)

51 sweeps by favorite = 20.1 %

-playing any favorites >-190 on -1.5 line adds 2 losses

AL (116-3)

109-10 if play ALL games on -1.5 line reg. of line

Game 1 = 78-41, 65.5%

Game 2 = 25-16, 61%

Game 3 = 13-3, 81%

 

NL (130-4)

-114-20 if play ALL games on -1.5 line

Game 1 = 100-34, 74.6%

Game 2 = 23-11, 67.6%

Game 3 = 7-4, 63.6%

 

Combined

Game 1 = 178-75, 70.4%

Game 2 = 48-27, 64%

Game 3 = 20-7, 74.1%

 

2008 Combined Record 258-10 

 

-playing any favorites >-190 on -1.5 line adds 3 losses

AL (117-4)

108-13 if play ALL games on -1.5 line reg. of line

Game 1 = 77-44, 63.6%

Game 2 = 26-18, 59.1%

Game 3 = 14-4, 77.7%

 

NL (141-6)

-130-17 if play ALL games on -1.5 line

Game 1 = 98-49, 66.7%

Game 2 = 34-15, 69.4%

Game 3 = 9-6, 60%

 

Combined

Game 1 = 175-93, 65.3%

Game 2 = 60-33, 64.5%

Game 3 = 23-10, 69.7%

2007 Combined Record 252-13 

 

-playing any favorites >-190 on -1.5 line adds 2 losses

AL (151-5)

133-23 if play ALL games on -1.5 line reg. of line

Game 1 = 105-51, 67.3%

Game 2 = 34-17, 66.7%

Game 3 = 12-5, 70.6%

 

NL (101-8)

 

Game 1 = 67-42, 61.5%

Game 2 = 23-11, 57.1%

Game 3 = 10-8, 55.5%

 

Combined

Game 1 = 172-93, 64.9%

Game 2 = 58-35, 62.4%

Game 3 = 22-13, 62.9%

Last three seasons:

756-30 (96.1%)

Game 1 = 525-261, 66.8%

Game 2 = 166-95, 63.6%

Game 3 = 65-30, 68.4%        756-386, 66.2%  

Thanks for all the hard work Rizz!  Can you PM me?  I'd like to get that database you were offering.  Thanks