Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

i was about to ask the same thing, what kinda filter is proposed to help make the system more profitable?

I don't know of any really good filters to use.  In essence we are counting on the odds makers as a filter to not make a crap team -150 favorite....  We could use Call82 tier system and not play tier 3 teams (TOR and BAL were both tier 3).  I am finishing up running 2008 for NL right now, then I will look back at who caused the losses last season, this might give us more insight into a good filter.

That sounds like a great idea...also it sounds like the -150 is based on the opening line or the closing line? 

Sorry if i missed that part, been doing a ton of reading.

The only data I have to backtest is the closing line, which is kind of hard to predict.  As I was backtesting if I saw a line of saw -147, I included it thinking it very well had been -150 close to closing.

2008 data:

AL: 117-4

NL:  141-6

Combined:  258-10

Playing any favorite >-200 on -1.5 RL would add 3 losses = 255-13, a few teams had multiple losses.  Will detail 2009 losses in next post.

Guys, look at the A, B, and C game records!  Just use a 3 line LaBouchere and bank the cash!  With that kind of won-loss record you wont have to filter out anybody, just play the system and anyone who gets swept will be picked up by future plays.  Backtest this a few more years back.  If it holds true this is a phenominal system!

a lot of juice, i also think Toronto +111 can steal 1 at home from the white soz

2009 losses:

Favored team(record for year)           Oponent         Line        Date

MIN  (9-1)                                       LAA            -154          7/31

TOR (6-2)                                       FLA              -210         6/12

                                                    @ATL            -168         5/24

St L (15-1)                                     COL               -170         6/7

PHI  (16-1)                                     TOR               -182        6/16

FLA (10-1)                                    @WAS            -170         8/6

ATL (12-1)                                      FLA                -158        4/6

---would have been a rough couple of weeks last year at end of may beginning of June...not consistent in prev years.

Think at this point, it becomes a choice that each of us has to make.

 

Playing the RL with any and all teams that are at the -150 closing line or worse.

If this is the course decided by the individual, then be prepared to play and extra game or lose an extra series.

For 2009 losses, 3 out of 7 were interleague play.  Might be a good filter not to play interleague series, unless there are a ton of wins coming from them.

2007 in the works Cinderella.  Good pickup on the interleague games.  I looked at the 2008 losses and 1 out of 6 losses for the NL were during interleague games SD vs MIN 6/24.  I have to mark the games for AL 2008 still, just ran through the season keeping a running tally in my head instead of taking the time to mark each game.

People can play this as they deem best, I don't have a large bankroll so will probably play a three line labby.  For those that want to play the -1.5RL to decrease juice, I have posted how many losses this would add for last season previously.  When I originally tested this I planned to play -1.5 line regardless of the line (i.e. even if the initially favorite was an underdog in game 2/3, I would still play -1.5), this resulted in 30 losses for last year. 

I am going to post the plays as a three game chase on the ML.  If there is very high juice I will post both and each person can play or not play in the style they would like.  I have worked very hard to crunch these numbers and will be making the plays myself.  I will feel bad enough if I lose money, but would feel horrible if others did because of this so please proceed with caution and cap these plays yourself.  If it goes against what you feel is a good play don't do it.  I am hoping between this and the sweep chase system we can win some money this season.

2008 NL numbers by game (with ML plays)

141-6

Game 1 wins = 98     (98- 49, 66.7%)

Game 2 wins = 34     (34-15, 69.4%)

Game 3 wins = 9       (9-6, 60%)             (141-70, 66.8%)

so if the bank roll was large enough there would be 9 plays tomorrow?

TB

Red Sox

Det

SF

Fla

Atl

Stl

Philly

Cubs

This is correct right?  Since every team is at -150 or worse according to lines out now at the Greek.

Rizz, that 258-10 is with absolutely no runlines, correct?

Rizz:

In case I forgot, thanks for all the hard work in this project.  It is much appreciated.

philly isnt under -150 or r you talking about RL bets?

Plays for 4/11, play at your own risk:

System record 1-0-0

 

Series #1 (game 1) 1:05          kc @ DET -190

Series #2 (game 1) 2:25         mil @ CHC -155

Series #3 (game 1) 3:05         was @ PHI -270, -1.5 RL ??

Series #4 (game 1) 4:15         BOS @ minn +150

Series #5 (game 1) 4:15         hou @ STL -220, -1.5 RL ??

Series #6 (game 1) 6:35         ATL -155@ sd

Series #7 (game 1) 7:05         TB -155 @ bal

Series #8 (game 1) 7:15         cin @ FLA -155

Series #9 (game 1) 10:15       pit @ SF -180

?? meant odds weren't available at this time.  Watch the odds this system was backtested with the closing line, so if a line drops below -140, I would not play it. 

Does anyone know what books offer -1 RL as I would like to play these games with this line and it isn't available at my book?

 

If you can get a -1 RL record would be very similar with a few pushes.  If you play -1.5 for odds higher than -190 would have added 3 losses.  I have the game by game data for making all plays on the -1.5 RL regardless of the games odds.  I can calculate that and post it if you would find it of use.  I have avoided posting it because I didn't want to confuse things.

are you gonns pplay all these gms or r u just tracking?

Not necessary, thanks.  I am more interested in just moneyline.

I know a lot of people are worried about the juice.  This could really hurt us if a series was high in all three games.  Most series it was pretty variable.  If you feel a series is likely to be very high juice at all levels it may not be worth the risk, or just play first game and see if it hits.  As previously mentioned I am going to use a three line labby as this is the first year doing this and I don't have a large bankroll to chase 5 series into a game three.  I will probably play all the series at least game 1's.  I am literally going to bet these to win 1/4 or 1/8th of a unit until I get a better feel for how this will go.  Every season runs the risk of screwing up the previous patterns.  BOL and play at your own risk

Rizz, you don't need a book that offers -1RL.  Just make your own.  Basically, let's say your a $100 bettor.  You would risk 65 on the ML and 35 on the RL.  Up to about -200 odds this works well enough to at least break even or lose a couple of bucks with a 1 run win.  

 

If I understand this correctly, is it possible to give results for playing RL for fav with -150 or worse in both leagues for previous years?

I am not sure how everyone is going to play the system this year, i.e. runline, moneyline, etc.  To be complete. I want to make sure everyone has as much info as I do before they make the plays.  Here are the numbers if you play EVERY game on the -1.5 RL regardless of the odds.

AL 2009 (all plays on the -1.5 runline regardless of odds)= 109-10

Game 1 wins= 66 (66-53, 55.4%)

Game 2 wins = 22 (22-31, 41%)

Game 3 wins = 21 (21-10, 67.7%)          109-94, 53.7%

NL 2009 = 114-19

Game 1 wins = 74    (74-59, 55.6%)

Game 2 wins = 29    (29-30, 49.1%)

Game 3 wins = 11    (11-19, 36.6%)        114-108, 51.4%

 

Cinderella, I think that would be a good way to play it!  I think I will try that for tomorrows games.  I will keep posting them in the way that I did tonight.  A win will be recorded when the ML hits.