Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

Damn Rizz, that's some serious research. How do you keep it all straight? Plus you follow the sweep chase. And don't you have another thread with MLB as the vehicle?

You should do a summary at some point to show what all you do.

Good stuff.

NM,

It was getting a little hairy wrapping up my nba system and rolling into the two mlb systems.  There is a pretty good summary from post 71-95 (starts on page 3) showing a breakdown of all the plays for the last 3 years on ML and/or RL, including just playing RL if the juice is above -190, and if you placed a RL wager through the entire series.  I also have backtested this using just the opening line which has very similar numbers (as opposed to the closing line which was originally used to backtest).  I just noticed this trend with o/u above and below 9 last evening after trying to help neilsy avoid 1 run games in his thread.  The key is to keep the juice as low as possible.  I accomplish this by playing mostly on the -1 line and some on the RL, I would rather have a few series push instead of having a huge juice loss that burns 20U!

The two losses would be on 3 game series.  No series had to go to a d bet if I remember correctly.  If I have time tonight I will try to give a breakdown of the records of these subsets of games on ML and RL but it will likely be very similar to the previous numbers without the o/u filter.  If I don't get it done tonight it may be awhile as I am back on service this week.

You have to create it by placing part of the wager on the ML and part on the RL whereas if the ML wins it essentially cancels out the amount you placed on the RL.  Overall if decreases the odds significantly.  I have a calculator in excel.  If you PM me your email I can forward it to you.

2009 AL with O/U filter

ML Record 88-1

Game 1 = 58-31, 65.2%

Game 2 = 21-10, 67.7%

Game 3 = 9-1, 90%

RL record for all games regardless of odds = 85-4

Game 1 = 45-44, 50.6%

Game 2 = 24-20, 54.5%

Game 3 = 16-4, 80%

Right, this is just for AL.  NL numbers being posted now.

NL 2009 with 9+ O/U filter

ML record = 63-1

Game 1 = 51-13, 79.7%  ---- holy schnikes!

Game 2 = 9-4, 69.2%

Game 3 = 3-1, 75%

Runline record for all 3 games regardless of odds = 60-4

Game 1 = 37-27, 57.8%

Game 2 = 16-11, 59.3%

Game 3 = 7-4, 63.6%

2009 Combined records with 9+ o/u filter

ML = 151-2

Game 1 = 110-44, 71.4%

Game 2 = 30-14, 68.2%

Game 3 = 12-2, 85.7%

RL for all 3 games of series = 145-8

Game 1 = 82-71, 53.6%

Game 2 = 40-31, 56.3%

Game 3= 23-8, 74.2%

so based on the new o/u filter and based on scoresandodds, the only team that qualifies is Col.  dont have a number for the cubs.

Please let me know if this is correct or completely wrong.