Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

Im looking dont  look like any new things till friday?

Revguy,

Yeah, I don't see any new series for tomorrow.  Should have a few for friday.

awesome thanks for your help i played seatle and i also played detroit tonight .great info for the other system too thanks

Nice hit on Detroit.  I know that one was a heartbreaker for a lot of people. Always good to be on the right side in games like that

thanks yes to many times I am on the otherside of that lol lets keep it going

rizz, you see anything for tommorrow?

Plays for 4/23:

System record 22-0-1

Additional series 3-0-0

 

Series #28 (game 1)  7:10      bal @ BOS -225, RL

Series #29 (game 1) 7:10        tor  @ TB -225, RL

Series #30 (game 1)  8:05       pit @ HOU -160

Series #31 (game 1) 10:05       cle @ OAK -146

Series #32 (game 1) 9:40        PHI -175 @ ariz

Series 33 (game 1)  10:15        stl   @ SF -160

BOL

Game 1 wins =19

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins = 1

HI  therizz

i like ur H-Fav. chase
and interleague series is not good for ur home chase
especially, if we chase the NL teams
based on my research
from 2007-09, u would make profit only by backing AL underdogs @ home....

plus
from your backtest, i've found one thing interesting
average w% for home fav. (-150 or more) @ 1st home game hits aorund 65%
but how is the average odds for those game?

if average market line is lower than 65% W (i.e. -180, -175, -170....), we could make profit just by backing every 1st home game

my English is poor, hope u can understand what i wrote

me and my friend only have data for 2009
I've added u as a friend
if u can send me your database from 2003-09, i could come up the conclusion soon and share with u guys

BOL to all

5858,

You would have to PM me with your email for me to send you the database.  I am not sure what the average opening line is for these series but I could figure it out...  I am guessing prob in -165-170 range off the top of my head.  Yeah based on the losses IL play would have caused the last couple of years we have decided to exclude those series.  Just so you know their is data back to 1999 on covers also by just looking at the team section and past results.  When I was first getting started I loaded all the teams into excel, so that may be helpful also.

Just wanted to make a few comments about these games.  I am thinking of trying to incorporate some filters on these series using teamrankings.  The series that would be filtered out in this case would be TB and SF because the teams they are playing have a higher rating on the road then they have at home???  The problem is it is still very early in the year so there is not a lot of data.  Anyone have any thoughts on potentially using this as a filter or these series in particular??

The other filter I was thinking about incorporating is to not play on a team to win that is under 50% for their last 10 games unless they have won 2/3 or 3/4... This filter would also eliminate the SF series if we were to use a double filter???

quick regarding this filter about the last 10, is there a way to back test this potential filter?

More just kind of bouncing ideas of off people, but I can look at that particular filter this weekend.  Of the series tonight SF makes me a bit nervous only in that if they don't hit tonight with their ace it might be kind of sketchy with the next two games..

Rizz,

I have been thinking the exact same thing as you...I have been looking at the teamrankings.com and the 2 loses in my RL System (Bos, and Atl) could have been eliminated. Starting tonight im going to take notes of overall, home, and away rankings, rpi, and a couple other stats to see if I can find a filter.

I agree with you on the SF series, if they cant get it done with Lincecum tonight, it may not happen in game 2 or 3.

BOL

rizz,

 you can add what you like the question I have is the system is pretty close to perfect so far I would maybe track the filters and implement them when the system starts to fade in its percentage

Yeah,

I looked back at the 50% over previous 10 filter and it would have eliminated losses and not any wins... can consider using it as a second level but definitely not a first level filter.  I think the teamrankings may be helpful especially when it is more established via more games to add to it.

rizz we have to chanse tb and philly is there anything else?

Results for 4/23:

System record 26-0-1

Additional series 3-0-0

 

Series #28 (game 1 wins)   bal @ BOS -225 , RL

Series #29 (game 1) 7:10        tor  @ TB -225 , RL

Series #30 (game 1)  8:05       pit @ HOU -160

Series #31 (game 1) 10:05       cle @ OAK -146

Series #32 (game 1) 9:40        PHI -175 @ ariz

Series 33 (game 1)  10:15        stl   @ SF -160  

 

Game 1 wins =23

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins = 1

Plays for 4/24:

System record 26-0-1

Additional series 3-0-0

 

**Series #28 (game 2) 7:10      bal @ BOS -195, RL **

Series #29 (game 2) 6:10        tor  @ TB -140

Series #32 (game 2) 8:10        PHI -110 @ ariz

*** only included for those chasing on RL or if pushed -1 and want to try again.  Already included as a game 1 system win.***

We actually missed a play today.  We should have been on the CWS also.  I did not notice the line went above -150.  sorry everyone.

 

Game 1 wins =23

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins = 1

Another stat, I thought people might find interesting for those wanting to play the RL to bring down the juice.  I looked at AL for 2009, with an opening O/U at 9 or higher.  Record was 84-4 to hit at least one game on the RL regardless of odds.  This means under 9 was only 25-6 for hitting the RL regardless of odds.

Okay, this is interesting.... For NL 2009  = 58-5 for opening o/u 9 or higer covering on RL for any spread...

 

The other thing that is interesting is that combining the AL and NL there were only 2 ML losses = 142-2 for these subsets of games.

Results for 4/24:

System record 28-0-1

Additional series 3-0-0

 

**Series #28 (game 2)     bal @ BOS -175 , RL

Series #29 (game 2) 6:10        tor  @ TB -140 

Series #32 (game 2) 8:10        PHI -110 @ ariz 

*** only included for those chasing on RL or if pushed -1 and want to try again.  Already included as a game 1 system win.***

Board is clear!

 

Game 1 wins =23

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins = 1

NL 2008:   88-9 any RL if o/u 9 or higher

96-1 on ML

AL 2008:  66-7 any odds RL if o/u 9 or higher

71-2 on ML

 

2008 Combined:   154-16 RL

167-3 on ML

Comparisons:

2009:

playing all series on ML = 246-7

o/u 9+ filter =            142-2

under 9 = 104-5

2008

all series on ML = 258-10

o/u 9+ filter = 167-3

under 9 = 91-7

*** I am a little surprised by this finding, but strangely enough playing the series that start under 9 are not adding much value, especially if the juice is high.  I am going to mark the series O/U from now on.  I am considering playing the series where the o/u is 9 or higher for 2U instead of 1.  Interested to read others opinions about this???  If we could use the oddsmakers knowledge against them to not only select series and a filter could be the ultimate coup!