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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

    «First Previous 121314 ... 454647 Next Last»
    jakeandba
    therizz
    cdmop
    kkirby99
    avenue
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    «First Previous 121314 ... 454647 Next Last»
     
    jakeandba
    jakeandba
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 9:21 PM ET #276

    Quote Originally Posted by jakeandba:

    so based on the new o/u filter and based on scoresandodds, the only team that qualifies is Col.  dont have a number for the cubs.

     

    Please let me know if this is correct or completely wrong.

     

    maybe would help to remember the starting point is at -150 or higher plus the filter...sorry bout that

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    Quote Originally Posted by jakeandba:

    so based on the new o/u filter and based on scoresandodds, the only team that qualifies is Col.  dont have a number for the cubs.

     

    Please let me know if this is correct or completely wrong.

     

    maybe would help to remember the starting point is at -150 or higher plus the filter...sorry bout that

     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 9:21 PM ET #277

    Since I am just discovering all of this, I will just post all the plays as we were before.  I will mark the o/u and put an asterick by those that pass the filter.  At this time none of the plays for tomorrow pass the filter.  The other thing I noticed is some of the teams (such as SF) always had an o/u less than 9 but would have been 10-0 in the system last year, so I think some teams we should probably play regardless.... long story short it is going to take a little bit of time to sort through this completely.  Play whatever you are most comfortable with.  I also think it will be of value to track all the plays and keep track of the filtered plays as a subset... i.e. I will post all the plays this year and keep track of the records for all the plays and the filtered plays so we will have more info rolling into next year.  I am also thinking of charting the rankings on teamrankings.com as each series starts as this will also give us more info and another possible filter if we need one.
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    Since I am just discovering all of this, I will just post all the plays as we were before.  I will mark the o/u and put an asterick by those that pass the filter.  At this time none of the plays for tomorrow pass the filter.  The other thing I noticed is some of the teams (such as SF) always had an o/u less than 9 but would have been 10-0 in the system last year, so I think some teams we should probably play regardless.... long story short it is going to take a little bit of time to sort through this completely.  Play whatever you are most comfortable with.  I also think it will be of value to track all the plays and keep track of the filtered plays as a subset... i.e. I will post all the plays this year and keep track of the records for all the plays and the filtered plays so we will have more info rolling into next year.  I am also thinking of charting the rankings on teamrankings.com as each series starts as this will also give us more info and another possible filter if we need one.
     
    cdmop
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 9:25 PM ET #278

    How many years have you backtested this?
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    How many years have you backtested this?
     
    kkirby99
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 9:32 PM ET #279

    Nothing wrong with that cd. It's been pretty consistent even without the filter.
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    Nothing wrong with that cd. It's been pretty consistent even without the filter.
     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 9:36 PM ET #280

    Plays for 4/24:

    System record 28-0-1

    Additional series 3-0-0

    Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff  

    Series #33 (G1)     7:10    sd@ FLA-160     8        -0.8 

    Series #34 (G1)     8:10    SEA -162 @kc    7.5       0

    Series #35 (G1)     8:10    pit @ MIL -199    8.5      +2.4

    Series #36 (G1)     8:05    cle @ LAA -175   8.5      +0.7

    Series #37 (G1)     10:15  PHI -152 @ sf       6.5      +0.9  

    ****No plays meet 9+ o/u filter*****

     

     

    Game 1 wins =23

    Game 2 wins = 4

    Game 3 wins = 1

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    Plays for 4/24:

    System record 28-0-1

    Additional series 3-0-0

    Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff  

    Series #33 (G1)     7:10    sd@ FLA-160     8        -0.8 

    Series #34 (G1)     8:10    SEA -162 @kc    7.5       0

    Series #35 (G1)     8:10    pit @ MIL -199    8.5      +2.4

    Series #36 (G1)     8:05    cle @ LAA -175   8.5      +0.7

    Series #37 (G1)     10:15  PHI -152 @ sf       6.5      +0.9  

    ****No plays meet 9+ o/u filter*****

     

     

    Game 1 wins =23

    Game 2 wins = 4

    Game 3 wins = 1

     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 9:37 PM ET #281

    TR is teamrankings.com difference between the teams home and away ratings...  something I want to follow.
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    TR is teamrankings.com difference between the teams home and away ratings...  something I want to follow.
     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 9:38 PM ET #282

    Plays for 4/26:

    System record 28-0-1

    Additional series 3-0-0

    Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff  

    Series #33 (G1)     7:10    sd@ FLA-160     8        -0.8 

    Series #34 (G1)     8:10    SEA -162 @kc    7.5       0

    Series #35 (G1)     8:10    pit @ MIL -199    8.5      +2.4

    Series #36 (G1)     8:05    cle @ LAA -175   8.5      +0.7

    Series #37 (G1)     10:15  PHI -152 @ sf       6.5      +0.9  

    ****No plays meet 9+ o/u filter*****

     

     

    Game 1 wins =23

    Game 2 wins = 4

    Game 3 wins = 1

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    Plays for 4/26:

    System record 28-0-1

    Additional series 3-0-0

    Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff  

    Series #33 (G1)     7:10    sd@ FLA-160     8        -0.8 

    Series #34 (G1)     8:10    SEA -162 @kc    7.5       0

    Series #35 (G1)     8:10    pit @ MIL -199    8.5      +2.4

    Series #36 (G1)     8:05    cle @ LAA -175   8.5      +0.7

    Series #37 (G1)     10:15  PHI -152 @ sf       6.5      +0.9  

    ****No plays meet 9+ o/u filter*****

     

     

    Game 1 wins =23

    Game 2 wins = 4

    Game 3 wins = 1

     
    cdmop
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 9:39 PM ET #283

    Shouldnt the Cubs be a play as well @ -160?
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    Shouldnt the Cubs be a play as well @ -160?
     
    avenue
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 9:47 PM ET #284

    rizz...will follow you with making these one unit plays and when a play with the filter occurs make it two units.
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    rizz...will follow you with making these one unit plays and when a play with the filter occurs make it two units.
     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 10:07 PM ET #285

    Plays for 4/26:

    System record 28-0-1

    Additional series 3-0-0

    Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff  

    Series #33 (G1)     7:10    sd@ FLA-160     8        -0.8 

    Series #34 (G1)     8:05    was@ CHC-160   ?       -2.2

    Series #35 (G1)     8:10    SEA -162 @kc    7.5       0

    Series #36 (G1)     8:10    pit @ MIL -199    8.5      +2.4

    Series #37 (G1)     10:05    cle @ LAA -175   8.5      +0.7

    Series #38 (G1)     10:15  PHI -152 @ sf       6.5      +0.9  

    ****No plays meet 9+ o/u filter*****

     

     

    Game 1 wins =23

    Game 2 wins = 4

    Game 3 wins = 1

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    Plays for 4/26:

    System record 28-0-1

    Additional series 3-0-0

    Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff  

    Series #33 (G1)     7:10    sd@ FLA-160     8        -0.8 

    Series #34 (G1)     8:05    was@ CHC-160   ?       -2.2

    Series #35 (G1)     8:10    SEA -162 @kc    7.5       0

    Series #36 (G1)     8:10    pit @ MIL -199    8.5      +2.4

    Series #37 (G1)     10:05    cle @ LAA -175   8.5      +0.7

    Series #38 (G1)     10:15  PHI -152 @ sf       6.5      +0.9  

    ****No plays meet 9+ o/u filter*****

     

     

    Game 1 wins =23

    Game 2 wins = 4

    Game 3 wins = 1

     
    avenue
    avenue
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 10:07 PM ET #286

    rizz....cubs ?
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    rizz....cubs ?
     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 10:08 PM ET #287

    Quote Originally Posted by cdmop:

    How many years have you backtested this?

    System for 4 years, filters for 2.   Added the CHC play.  Had it written down but forgot to add it

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    Quote Originally Posted by cdmop:

    How many years have you backtested this?

    System for 4 years, filters for 2.   Added the CHC play.  Had it written down but forgot to add it

     
    avenue
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 10:09 PM ET #288

    no ov un for cubs yet.
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    no ov un for cubs yet.
     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 10:47 PM ET #289

    2009 team records for teams beginning series tomorrow

    FLA 10-1

    CHC 11-0 * all covered RL

    SEA 4-0

    MIL 6-0* all covered RL

    LAA 12-0

    PHI 16-1 ** only loss from Interleague series, 16-0 otherwise

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    2009 team records for teams beginning series tomorrow

    FLA 10-1

    CHC 11-0 * all covered RL

    SEA 4-0

    MIL 6-0* all covered RL

    LAA 12-0

    PHI 16-1 ** only loss from Interleague series, 16-0 otherwise

     
    SUPEREAGLE43
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2010 - 11:23 PM ET #290

    Rizz, youre the stats guy.  What is your opinion on the new topic I posted?  Why wouldnt it work?
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    Rizz, youre the stats guy.  What is your opinion on the new topic I posted?  Why wouldnt it work?
     
    doubledime
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2010 - 9:41 AM ET #291

    Thank you sir  BOL to all
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    Thank you sir  BOL to all
     
    kkirby99
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2010 - 11:01 AM ET #292

    rizz, I've been following team rankings as well. The problem is that they change every day. They've changed since you posted for example. You might look at the series prices from the books to give you an idea which chases are more likely to succeed. They have factored in the pitching for each game of the series already.

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    rizz, I've been following team rankings as well. The problem is that they change every day. They've changed since you posted for example. You might look at the series prices from the books to give you an idea which chases are more likely to succeed. They have factored in the pitching for each game of the series already.

     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2010 - 5:27 PM ET #293

    Plays for 4/26:

    System record 28-0-1

    Additional series 3-0-0

    Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff  

    Series #33 (G1)     7:10    sd@ FLA-160     8        -0.4 

    Series #34 (G1)     8:05    was@ CHC-160   8       -2.7

    Series #35 (G1)     8:10    SEA -162 @kc    7.5       -1.2

    Series #36 (G1)     8:10    pit @ MIL -199    8.5      +2.2

    Series #37 (G1)     10:05    cle @ LAA -175   8.5     +1.7

    Series #38 (G1)     10:15  PHI -152 @ sf       6.5      +1.7  

    ****No plays meet 9+ o/u filter*****

    ---updated TR diffs

     

    Game 1 wins =23

    Game 2 wins = 4

    Game 3 wins = 1

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    Plays for 4/26:

    System record 28-0-1

    Additional series 3-0-0

    Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff  

    Series #33 (G1)     7:10    sd@ FLA-160     8        -0.4 

    Series #34 (G1)     8:05    was@ CHC-160   8       -2.7

    Series #35 (G1)     8:10    SEA -162 @kc    7.5       -1.2

    Series #36 (G1)     8:10    pit @ MIL -199    8.5      +2.2

    Series #37 (G1)     10:05    cle @ LAA -175   8.5     +1.7

    Series #38 (G1)     10:15  PHI -152 @ sf       6.5      +1.7  

    ****No plays meet 9+ o/u filter*****

    ---updated TR diffs

     

    Game 1 wins =23

    Game 2 wins = 4

    Game 3 wins = 1

     
    redskinsnation
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2010 - 5:35 PM ET #294

    so Rizz, let me get this straight your using a website to follow team rankings? Whats the website?

    You are subtracting the team rankings to get a number and this number has to fit the system, they its a play?

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    so Rizz, let me get this straight your using a website to follow team rankings? Whats the website?

    You are subtracting the team rankings to get a number and this number has to fit the system, they its a play?

     
    redskinsnation
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2010 - 5:51 PM ET #295

    Quote Originally Posted by therizz:

    There are different ways to play it but I play it more aggressively.  You start with three line

    20-20-20-20

    20-20-20-20

    20-20-20-20

    Play the outside numbers on game 1 ( be to win 40),  If it wins cross those numbers off until you clear the line two times, then increase your plays by ten percent to start a new line 22-22-22-22.

    How aggressive you are depends on the losses.  I take half of my loss and put it on line 1 and half on line 2.  So if I bet 60 to win 40.

    20-20-20-20-30

    20-20-20-20-30

    So my game 2 bet would be to win 50.  If it wins I cross out the 30 and 20.  If you want to be very aggressive with it, instead of adding a new number at the end of the chain you can just add the number to the end.

    20-20-20-50

    20-20-20-50

    20-20-20-20

    If you play it this way you would only add a new number if a series lost.  Just continuing with above if game 2 and 3 lost

    20-20-20-50

    20-20-20-85

    20-20-20-55             after game 2, so bet 75 on game 3, if loses

     

    20-20-20-50-37.5

    20-20-20-85

    20-20-20-55

    A couple of losses this way can have you making very aggressive bets but they are spread out between the three games.  I run an nba qtr system that hits about 96-97% and I was running an aggressive 4 line labby and in one night I had one game go the 4th qtr for my win and another series lost.  Staying steady and playing my aggressive lines I was able to recoup my losses and be a little ahead by the end of the next night (was playing 6 series a night).  I have never run this with the juice as heavy as some of these games so I am not sure if I am going to play the aggressive or standard.  I will probably play aggressive but as I said in previous posts I am playing a very small amounts to start.

    Hey rizz, i started reading your thread and Im on page 4 so far, can you explain this 3 and 4 team labby. What is a labby? What is the purpose of doing this. I'm confused,

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    Quote Originally Posted by therizz:

    There are different ways to play it but I play it more aggressively.  You start with three line

    20-20-20-20

    20-20-20-20

    20-20-20-20

    Play the outside numbers on game 1 ( be to win 40),  If it wins cross those numbers off until you clear the line two times, then increase your plays by ten percent to start a new line 22-22-22-22.

    How aggressive you are depends on the losses.  I take half of my loss and put it on line 1 and half on line 2.  So if I bet 60 to win 40.

    20-20-20-20-30

    20-20-20-20-30

    So my game 2 bet would be to win 50.  If it wins I cross out the 30 and 20.  If you want to be very aggressive with it, instead of adding a new number at the end of the chain you can just add the number to the end.

    20-20-20-50

    20-20-20-50

    20-20-20-20

    If you play it this way you would only add a new number if a series lost.  Just continuing with above if game 2 and 3 lost

    20-20-20-50

    20-20-20-85

    20-20-20-55             after game 2, so bet 75 on game 3, if loses

     

    20-20-20-50-37.5

    20-20-20-85

    20-20-20-55

    A couple of losses this way can have you making very aggressive bets but they are spread out between the three games.  I run an nba qtr system that hits about 96-97% and I was running an aggressive 4 line labby and in one night I had one game go the 4th qtr for my win and another series lost.  Staying steady and playing my aggressive lines I was able to recoup my losses and be a little ahead by the end of the next night (was playing 6 series a night).  I have never run this with the juice as heavy as some of these games so I am not sure if I am going to play the aggressive or standard.  I will probably play aggressive but as I said in previous posts I am playing a very small amounts to start.

    Hey rizz, i started reading your thread and Im on page 4 so far, can you explain this 3 and 4 team labby. What is a labby? What is the purpose of doing this. I'm confused,

     
    cdmop
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2010 - 6:26 PM ET #296

    Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

    rizz, I've been following team rankings as well. The problem is that they change every day. They've changed since you posted for example. You might look at the series prices from the books to give you an idea which chases are more likely to succeed. They have factored in the pitching for each game of the series already.



    Where do I find series prices?  My book doesnt list them.
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    Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

    rizz, I've been following team rankings as well. The problem is that they change every day. They've changed since you posted for example. You might look at the series prices from the books to give you an idea which chases are more likely to succeed. They have factored in the pitching for each game of the series already.



    Where do I find series prices?  My book doesnt list them.
     
    redskinsnation
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2010 - 6:48 PM ET #297

    Quote Originally Posted by cdmop:



    Where do I find series prices?  My book doesnt list them.

     

    usabetting has it

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    Quote Originally Posted by cdmop:



    Where do I find series prices?  My book doesnt list them.

     

    usabetting has it

     
    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2010 - 7:04 PM ET #298

    labby lines refers to labouchere method of money management.  The numbers help you keep track of the amount you want to wager to win.  You wager to win the sum of the outside numbers in your line.  If you win you cross those numbers out.  The idea is to cross out lines.  You only need to win 40% or so to break even.  You can do this all on one line or when you are doing a series chase, you can choose to have a separate line for all the A B and C bets.  This helps to distribute the load to all the different level of games as opposed to doing a straight martingale where you wager a much higher amount on your C bets.  This also allows you to recoup your losses more easily.  There is more info at platiumsportsinvesting.com.

    The website I am using is teamrankings.com.  They have daily updated rankings for teams playing at home and on the road.  I don't know if this is of value or not.  I just want to keep track of the rankings when all the new series start as a means to look back on the season and see if this would be a potentially valuable filter.  Within the last couple of pages shows that playing o/u 9 and higher may be a beneficial filter as well as skipping interleague games.  Since this is the first year we are doing this I just want to have as much data as possible available for us so we can develop the best way to play this for 2010 and the future.

     

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    labby lines refers to labouchere method of money management.  The numbers help you keep track of the amount you want to wager to win.  You wager to win the sum of the outside numbers in your line.  If you win you cross those numbers out.  The idea is to cross out lines.  You only need to win 40% or so to break even.  You can do this all on one line or when you are doing a series chase, you can choose to have a separate line for all the A B and C bets.  This helps to distribute the load to all the different level of games as opposed to doing a straight martingale where you wager a much higher amount on your C bets.  This also allows you to recoup your losses more easily.  There is more info at platiumsportsinvesting.com.

    The website I am using is teamrankings.com.  They have daily updated rankings for teams playing at home and on the road.  I don't know if this is of value or not.  I just want to keep track of the rankings when all the new series start as a means to look back on the season and see if this would be a potentially valuable filter.  Within the last couple of pages shows that playing o/u 9 and higher may be a beneficial filter as well as skipping interleague games.  Since this is the first year we are doing this I just want to have as much data as possible available for us so we can develop the best way to play this for 2010 and the future.

     

     
    redskinsnation
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2010 - 7:10 PM ET #299

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    therizz
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2010 - 7:13 PM ET #300

    Plays for 4/26:

    System record 28-0-1

    Additional series 3-0-0

    Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff  

    Series #33 (G1)     7:10    sd@ FLA-160     8        -0.4 

    Series #34 (G1)     8:05    was@ CHC-160   8       -2.7

    Series #35 (G1)     8:10    SEA -162 @kc    7.5       -1.2

    Series #36 (G1)     8:10    pit @ MIL -199    8.5      +2.2

    Series #37 (G1)     10:05    cle @ LAA -175   8.5     +1.7

    Series #38 (G1)     10:15  PHI -152 @ sf       6.5      +1.7  

    ****No plays meet 9+ o/u filter*****

    ---updated TR diffs(for reference only)

    Series Prices (for future reference only)

    FLA -180

    SEA -125

    LAA -240

    MIL -260

    CHC -225

    PHI -130

     

    Game 1 wins =23

    Game 2 wins = 4

    Game 3 wins = 1

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    Plays for 4/26:

    System record 28-0-1

    Additional series 3-0-0

    Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff  

    Series #33 (G1)     7:10    sd@ FLA-160     8        -0.4 

    Series #34 (G1)     8:05    was@ CHC-160   8       -2.7

    Series #35 (G1)     8:10    SEA -162 @kc    7.5       -1.2

    Series #36 (G1)     8:10    pit @ MIL -199    8.5      +2.2

    Series #37 (G1)     10:05    cle @ LAA -175   8.5     +1.7

    Series #38 (G1)     10:15  PHI -152 @ sf       6.5      +1.7  

    ****No plays meet 9+ o/u filter*****

    ---updated TR diffs(for reference only)

    Series Prices (for future reference only)

    FLA -180

    SEA -125

    LAA -240

    MIL -260

    CHC -225

    PHI -130

     

    Game 1 wins =23

    Game 2 wins = 4

    Game 3 wins = 1

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