I have been following this for a bit now and feel I must chime in. I Love this stuff and reading these posts helps make ca$h. I took this original format and back-tested it throughout this season with a twist. From LAST SEASON'S final standings I wrote down the Top 5 Home teams, Top 5 Road teams, Bottom 5 Home teams and Bottom 5 Road teams. Then I put the magical (at least) 3 Home or Road games in a row stretch to the test.
Top 5 Homers: Play on when beginning at least 3 game Home stand. Do the A, B, C bets. All-Star Break record = 18-0
Breakdown: 8 A wins, 7 B wins, 3 C wins
Top 5 Roadies: Play on when beginning at least 3 game Road stand. A, B, C bets. All-Star Break record = 19-0
Breakdown: 13 A wins, 5 B wins, 1 C win
Bottom 5 Homers: Fade when beginning at least 3 game Home stand. A, B, C bets. All-Star Break record = 17-0
Breakdown: 8 A wins, 6 B wins, 3 C wins
Bottom 5 Roadies: Fade when beginning at least 3 game Road trip. A, B, C bets. All-Star Break record = 17-1 (Columbus screwed it up when Mason got white Hot and had 3 SO's in a row, two in the 3 games here).
Breakdown: 12 A wins, 4 B wins, 1 C win
Note: Columbus DID lose the "D" game if you had the sack to play it.
That makes Total record at All-Star Break 71-1.
Since the All-Star Break: LA lost "A" game of Away Fade @ Mon on 1/31 and Det won "A" game of Home Play on 2/2.
2-0 since break.
Hold on though. I did back-test this taking results from 06-07 final standings. Last year this "system" would have gone 101-9. I think losing 9 C bets absolutely sucks! Especially if they come early. However, if you took the +1.5 line as a dog in the games that you could have, it tested out to a Marvelous 107-3. Completely worth the 3 losses there!!!
I've noticed many people in here try to get the lowest line available which is smart. However, getting a better money line by taking the Regulation Line can cost you dearly. Last night's Detroit bet comes to mind. The key is to focus on the result, not the risk. With CRAZY numbers like this, you know you're going to win one of the 3 anyway, what's it matter what the risk is on that particular game? I was on Detroit in Regulation last night and I will no longer cut my chances of winning due to a high line. I want every edge possible to cash that first game.
One last note. Since we are into the secod half, I have begun to play on against the Top and Bottom 5 of each Home and Road based on THIS SEASON'S standings.
2nd Half Results so far:
Home Plays = 3-0 all "A" winners
Away Play = 1-0 "A" winner
Away Fades = 2-0 both "B" winners
the other situation has not come up yet. Now with this method the standings are fluid (meaning they change daily). Just take 10 minutes each day to see who is beginning a 3 game streak, Home or Road, then if they are a Top or Bottom 5 Home or Road record. I use ESPN site because you can click "League" to sort all teams, then click "Home" or "Away." Unortunately they don't do it by percentage, they do it by wins or losses. So I take my calc out and do a quick % check which gives a true Top or Bottom 5.
This is my first post so I wanted to be thorough. I hope this helps even one person. GFL!
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