I just heard that Ovechkin did not play. What a bummer when the line is so horrible. So Washington loses 3 in a row at home but I'm assuming most people chasing were not too comfortable with the way they were playing and might have cut down the losses. If not, I think the overall record of the system is gonna get hit hard now. For the purpose of tracking, there is still one more game at home so they might even pull it off with a G4 win but there are not looking good at all right now.
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Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:
WASHINGTON ( -0.5 regulation ) -155
I just heard that Ovechkin did not play. What a bummer when the line is so horrible. So Washington loses 3 in a row at home but I'm assuming most people chasing were not too comfortable with the way they were playing and might have cut down the losses. If not, I think the overall record of the system is gonna get hit hard now. For the purpose of tracking, there is still one more game at home so they might even pull it off with a G4 win but there are not looking good at all right now.
DALLAS (this is the LA fade) -104 (holy shit they had a huge lead )
When things go bad, they do go bad. Not even able to squeak out a win with a team that has a 4-2 lead in the 3rd period. But, moving along, this means I continue to fade LA.
So, on chase list as of now : Washington ( G4 ) + Philly ( G2 ) + LA [fade] ( G2 )
Plays today are:
ANAHEIM -145
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Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:
DALLAS (this is the LA fade) -104 (holy shit they had a huge lead )
When things go bad, they do go bad. Not even able to squeak out a win with a team that has a 4-2 lead in the 3rd period. But, moving along, this means I continue to fade LA.
So, on chase list as of now : Washington ( G4 ) + Philly ( G2 ) + LA [fade] ( G2 )
I was wondering why Boston would not be a chase team as they have lost 3 straight at home? I am new to this thread so sorry if it is a stupid question.
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I was wondering why Boston would not be a chase team as they have lost 3 straight at home? I am new to this thread so sorry if it is a stupid question.
I was wondering why Boston would not be a chase team as they have lost 3 straight at home? I am new to this thread so sorry if it is a stupid question.
It is simple. Boston started the home stand on February 24th. They were gonna play 6 straight games at home. Thats when the chase starts. Boston won the game on the 24th 6 - 1 against Florida so that closes off the chase. Whatever happens after does not affect the chasing. Once we win with the 1st game of the chase, it is over even though they might be playing more than 3 straight home games.
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Quote Originally Posted by mikeshelton31:
I was wondering why Boston would not be a chase team as they have lost 3 straight at home? I am new to this thread so sorry if it is a stupid question.
It is simple. Boston started the home stand on February 24th. They were gonna play 6 straight games at home. Thats when the chase starts. Boston won the game on the 24th 6 - 1 against Florida so that closes off the chase. Whatever happens after does not affect the chasing. Once we win with the 1st game of the chase, it is over even though they might be playing more than 3 straight home games.
Ouch on Washington. I chased the first 3, but thankfully laid off the 4th game. (I couldn't lay big money against my Penguins, especially knowing how hot they are)
For the record, if you played Washington on the ML for all 4 games, you lost 70 units. That's right, 70. With Matchbook lines of -202, -176, -250, and -140, you'd be in the hole 70 units.
Also for the record, that is by far the worst 4 game home losing streak in the past 4 years. Prior to that, Vancouver had 2 such streaks in the 40 unit range.
Just this year alone, if you were playing all 4 games at home, Vancouver's + Washington's streaks would set you back about 110 units and you'd be down for the season, given only about 80 4-game homestands. However, last year no team lost all 4 games at home. Crazy, but likely within the normal variation.
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Ouch on Washington. I chased the first 3, but thankfully laid off the 4th game. (I couldn't lay big money against my Penguins, especially knowing how hot they are)
For the record, if you played Washington on the ML for all 4 games, you lost 70 units. That's right, 70. With Matchbook lines of -202, -176, -250, and -140, you'd be in the hole 70 units.
Also for the record, that is by far the worst 4 game home losing streak in the past 4 years. Prior to that, Vancouver had 2 such streaks in the 40 unit range.
Just this year alone, if you were playing all 4 games at home, Vancouver's + Washington's streaks would set you back about 110 units and you'd be down for the season, given only about 80 4-game homestands. However, last year no team lost all 4 games at home. Crazy, but likely within the normal variation.
On chase list as of now : LA [fade] ( G3 ) + Anaheim ( G2 ) + Detroit( G2 ) + Chicago ( G2 )
Major because of Washington who have now lost 4 in a row at home. I've tracked the units lost to be at 40 units for that complete chase. That's what I mean when I say the system is gonna even out. Having a profit of 100 units is a good reason to expect something to go horribly wrong soon enough.
This original system now looks like this:
overall record of 131 - 2 with a profit of 60 units
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Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:
WASHINGTON ( no line available as of now )
CHICAGO -145 ( regulation line )
On chase list as of now : LA [fade] ( G3 ) + Anaheim ( G2 ) + Detroit( G2 ) + Chicago ( G2 )
Major because of Washington who have now lost 4 in a row at home. I've tracked the units lost to be at 40 units for that complete chase. That's what I mean when I say the system is gonna even out. Having a profit of 100 units is a good reason to expect something to go horribly wrong soon enough.
This original system now looks like this:
overall record of 131 - 2 with a profit of 60 units
Just this year alone, if you were playing all 4 games at home, Vancouver's + Washington's streaks would set you back about 110 units and you'd be down for the season, given only about 80 4-game homestands. However, last year no team lost all 4 games at home. Crazy, but likely within the normal variation.
Very good insight Unlucky187.
However, I've said it for the past 3 months that this would not work with normal money lines because of the inflated odds sometimes. Washington is a perfect example. This is why I've been using regulation lines. Instead of having lost 70 , it would have been 40 like I pointed out in the post above.
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Quote Originally Posted by Unlucky187:
Just this year alone, if you were playing all 4 games at home, Vancouver's + Washington's streaks would set you back about 110 units and you'd be down for the season, given only about 80 4-game homestands. However, last year no team lost all 4 games at home. Crazy, but likely within the normal variation.
Very good insight Unlucky187.
However, I've said it for the past 3 months that this would not work with normal money lines because of the inflated odds sometimes. Washington is a perfect example. This is why I've been using regulation lines. Instead of having lost 70 , it would have been 40 like I pointed out in the post above.
Just wanted to chim in & Thank You for all your time and hard work keeping this thread up to date with all the Chases going on, I think you might be right this system is seeing alot more Gm #2 & #3 lately. Might be starting to even itself out. Anyways Have a great day & Thanks again
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Elithepunk,
Just wanted to chim in & Thank You for all your time and hard work keeping this thread up to date with all the Chases going on, I think you might be right this system is seeing alot more Gm #2 & #3 lately. Might be starting to even itself out. Anyways Have a great day & Thanks again
Infoo, at the end of last years MLB season he said that he was going to use the power ratings to filter the mlb picks. I don't remember the exactly but I think that if the teams were more than 2 points appart there would not be a chase. Thats how he change the losing season he had last year to 43-0 after the games had been played. Now the free picks for life he is trying to charge for again what a joke. He did this with the NBA he wanted 100 for NBA in order to get them more than an hour before tip off. I did not send the 100 but I'm still getting the picks the day before. I suspect he will do the same for MLB.
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Infoo, at the end of last years MLB season he said that he was going to use the power ratings to filter the mlb picks. I don't remember the exactly but I think that if the teams were more than 2 points appart there would not be a chase. Thats how he change the losing season he had last year to 43-0 after the games had been played. Now the free picks for life he is trying to charge for again what a joke. He did this with the NBA he wanted 100 for NBA in order to get them more than an hour before tip off. I did not send the 100 but I'm still getting the picks the day before. I suspect he will do the same for MLB.
Well there you have it. This is what we call a system evening out. It is just simply fascinating how every time, it is not a progressive slow down. Instead, everything gets worse almost all at the same time. On one end, we have the Washington Capitals that can't win a home game when they were one of the hottest home teams in the league and now the LA Kings have decided to start winning at home which means this is the 3rd series loss. I've calculated the unit loss to be at 9 units.
On chase list as of now : Anaheim ( G2 ) + Detroit( G2 ) + Chicago ( G2 )
overall record of 131 - 3 with a profit of 51 units
plays today :
DETROIT - 199 ( regulation line ; ouch ! )
MONTREAL - 175
DALLAS [ STL fade ] + 120
NY ISLANDERS [ TOR fade ] + 121
I'd still be up 50 units so this is still interesting for me to track but I'm sure everyone here knows how dangerous these systems tend to be. Whatever your filter or criteria is, proceed with caution .
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Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:
VANCOUVER -140 ( LA fade ) (damn Canucks)
Well there you have it. This is what we call a system evening out. It is just simply fascinating how every time, it is not a progressive slow down. Instead, everything gets worse almost all at the same time. On one end, we have the Washington Capitals that can't win a home game when they were one of the hottest home teams in the league and now the LA Kings have decided to start winning at home which means this is the 3rd series loss. I've calculated the unit loss to be at 9 units.
On chase list as of now : Anaheim ( G2 ) + Detroit( G2 ) + Chicago ( G2 )
overall record of 131 - 3 with a profit of 51 units
plays today :
DETROIT - 199 ( regulation line ; ouch ! )
MONTREAL - 175
DALLAS [ STL fade ] + 120
NY ISLANDERS [ TOR fade ] + 121
I'd still be up 50 units so this is still interesting for me to track but I'm sure everyone here knows how dangerous these systems tend to be. Whatever your filter or criteria is, proceed with caution .
I keep posting in the quote (above). Sorry about that. 
and BOL 
.
Thanks Capitals. 
)
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