NHL Home Chase 3 Games Variation Plus 3

You are correct sir. I have them written down as a 19 unit loss for 3 games. Pathetic display of hockey by the Wings and their goaltenders.

But since I still have a profit showing on my spreadsheet, I'll see until how long it shows.

However, since the plays have not been hitting as consistently as before, there is no point in posting the picks in this thread.

 I'll gladly post a final recap on the last day of this year's season to see if I was able to show a profit or not using my spreadsheet.

As a side note, considering the 25 + previous pages where it has been mentioned several times that this was to be expected, keep this in mind when starting a chase system in any sport. It always starts off well and then evens out. The skill involved here is to jump off the train before it crashes .

Sometimes the train crashes right away.  I applaud your efforts in tracking this.  I will be back checking diligently this offseason to study this system.  I thought it was good to go after going 77-0 last year (all home teams with 4 game+ homestands won at least 1 of the first 4 games.)  Unfortunately, this year, Vancouver and Washington have lost 4 game homestands that were quite costly. 

I felt like there was some merit to the idea that teams staying at home will be better rested and play slightly better. 

Yeah , please do so. I'll have a lot of data to add to this thread so it should be interesting. I'll probably just bump this same thread and update the final results.

Cheers .

Actually, since this forum is really not occupied at all, I'll use this space to document the system instead of cramming it into my spreadsheet. So basically, I'll keep track of how this system ends off the season and hopefully it ends strong. If not, it will have been a great lesson about when to stop.


Yesterday night, Vancouver started a 4 game home stand and won  against the Kings so that counts as a series win.

On chase list as of now :   STL fade ( G3 )  +  EDMONTON ( G2 )

overall record of 136 - 4  with a profit of 37 units

plays today :

EDMONTON    - 155

NASHVILLE  ( PHX fade )   - 127

PITTSBURGH    - 182

TAMPA BAY  ( FLO fade )  + 200

DETROIT  ( STL fade )  - 139

On chase list as of now :    EDMONTON ( G3 )  +  PITTSBURGH ( G2 ) 


overall record of 139 - 4  with a profit of 40 units

Wow, was not expecting the two fade plays to come through and yet they both hit.

play today:

PITTSBURGH  - 122

On chase list as of now :    EDMONTON ( G3 ) 


overall record of 140 - 4  with a profit of 41 units

So the Penguins get it done during game 2. Might get into trouble with a big game 3 coming up for the Edmonton Oilers but that's the point of tracking this whole ordeal.

NO PLAYS tomorrow on Monday. 

On chase list as of now :    EDMONTON ( G3 ) 


overall record of 140 - 4  with a profit of 41 units

plays today :

EDMONTON   - 122

OTTAWA   - 120

TORONTO ( tampa bay fade )  + 104

Perfect 3 - 0 night !  How the hell did that Edmonton game go into OT again. At least they cashed in on game 3.

On chase list as of now :    no one !


overall record of 143 - 4  with a profit of 44 units

plays today :

CAROLINA     - 123

CALGARY  ( regulation )   - 109

Another perfect sweep. Things might be picking up somewhat.

On chase list as of now :    no one !


overall record of 145 - 4  with a profit of 46 units

play today :

SAN JOSE (regulation)  - 160

Damn it. Hate it when this happens. San Jose goes on to win it in a shootout and -160 is still kinda juicy. I'm gonna have to sweat it out with the juicy lines for 2 more games with the Sharks now.

On chase list as of now :    San Jose ( G2 )

overall record of 145 - 4  with a profit of 46 units

play today:

CHICAGO  - 185

On chase list as of now :    San Jose ( G2 )   +  Chicago ( G2 )

overall record of 145 - 4  with a profit of 46 units

SAN JOSE ( regulation )   - 136

MONTREAL   ( regulation )  - 122

NY RANGERS  - 162

wtf is up with these crazy lines ... hoping these heavy favorites hit in regulation

On chase list as of now :    Chicago ( G2 )  + Montreal ( G2 )

overall record of 147 - 4  with a profit of 48 units


Well, how bout that. Montreal shits the bed as they are about to miss the playoffs. That smells like trouble for the chase. Almost back up to 50 unit profit so I'm excited to see how well or badly this system is gonna do as the season ends off.

play today :

CHICAGO    no line available so far but regulation if worse than - 200

On chase list as of now :    Montreal ( G2 )

overall record of 148 - 4  with a profit of 49 units

On chase list as of now :    Montreal ( G2 )

overall record of 148 - 4  with a profit of 49 units

So, there were no games that fit the system yesterday. Time to get back to business today.

plays today:

MONTREAL    - 170

DALLAS   + 104

NASHVILLE   - 134

LA KINGS ( STL fade )   + 150

On chase list as of now :   Dallas ( G2 ) + Nashville ( G2 ) + St.Louis [fade] ( G2 )

overall record of 149 - 4  with a profit of 50 units

no plays tomorrow

* NOTE: Just a reminder I am using this space to track a system that was once up over 100 units and is now up 50 with a couple of chases that are gonna be quite hard to win. The system is quite straightforward. I am fading bottom 8 home teams from LAST year which are these :  LA   PHO    STL    TB    ATL     FLO     TOR     NYI. Only purpose of this thread is to see if the original system can finish in the positive units by the end of the season.


On chase list as of now :   Dallas ( G2 ) + Nashville ( G2 ) + St.Louis [fade] ( G2 )

overall record of 149 - 4  with a profit of 50 units

plays today :

DALLAS   - 158

NASHVILLE     + 112

NY RANGERS [ATL fade]    - 135

VANCOUVER  [STL fade]    - 120

On chase list as of now :   Dallas ( G3 ) + St.Louis [fade] ( G3 ) + Atlanta [fade] ( G2 )

overall record of 150 - 4  with a profit of 51 units


WTF was that some bullshit tonight with the Rangers blowing a 4-1 lead wow. A couple of game 3 plays coming up so I'm expecting to have to substract a chunk of units from the overall record soon enough.

plays tomorrow :

DETROIT  ( regulation )    - 222

WASHINGTON  ( regulation )   - 203

* this is just insane ... I would have never thought of having two crazy ass favorites on the same night but I'm sticking with the original rules of the system for the purpose of tracking

On chase list as of now :   Dallas ( G3 ) + St.Louis [fade] ( G3 ) + Atlanta [fade] ( G2 )  + Detroit ( G2 )

overall record of 151 - 4  with a profit of 52 units


Ouch. That hurts real bad. How could the red wings not even score a goal as - 400 favorites. Absolutely brutal.

plays today :

DALLAS   - 121

COLUMBUS  + 105

OTTAWA  - 113

On chase list as of now :   Atlanta [fade] ( G2 )  + Detroit ( G2 )

overall record of 151 - 6  with a profit of 35.8 units


Shit. Two important games not going the system's way. That means 2 series losses on the same night. This would have been horrible in terms of units lost but still showing a small profit so far.

This is the first time the original sytem strategy of FADING bottom 8 home teams from last year has produced a series loss. 10 units down the drain thanks to Dallas losing 3 in a row and 6.2 units also lost because of St.Louis being too strong at home for 3 consecutive games. Clearly, this is the hard way of learning that any system is gonna even out.

plays today :

DETROIT  ( regulation )  - 176

EDMONTON  - 155

On chase list as of now :   Atlanta [fade] ( G3 )  + Detroit ( G3 ) + Edmonton ( G2 )

overall record of 151 - 6  with a profit of 35.8 units

OH OH TROUBLE AHEAD

The Wings are enjoying their home stand by not winning games and playing them is costing a shit load of units even in regulation. Like I said previously, once the profit disappears, I'll stop cluttering this section of the forum with chase crap like this.

On chase list as of now :   Atlanta [fade] ( G3 )  + Detroit ( G3 ) + Edmonton ( G2 )

overall record of 151 - 6  with a profit of 35.8 units

plays today :

BOSTON ( regulation )   - 212   ( shit )

EDMONTON  - 107

OTTAWA  + 129  ( florida fade )

On chase list as of now :   Atlanta [fade] ( G3 )  + Detroit ( G3 ) + Edmonton ( G3 ) + Florida [fade] ( G2 )

overall record of 152 - 6  with a profit of 36.8 units

This might be it. Three G3's coming up shortly and that may well be the point at which this system reaches negative results with too many chases not coming through at the same time.

plays today:

BUFFALO [ atl fade ]  - 124

 

Atlanta is now the second team to have resulted in a fade chase to go down the drain.

On chase list as of now :   Detroit ( G3 ) + Edmonton ( G3 ) + Florida [fade] ( G2 )

overall record of 152 - 7  with a profit of 26.6 units

plays today:

DETROIT (regulation)  - 161

CAROLINA  - 143

EDMONTON  + 121

thats it ... won't even take the time to recap the losses yesterday night because of Detroit and their disgusting play on home ice down the strech

Just like it was pointed out numerous times in this very thread, most, if not all systems will even out. The key here is to know when a particular strategy has hit the highest point of positive variance which usually is by mid-season or say 2/3 into the season. Otherwise, by the time the season ends and the losses accumulate, any profit which had been collected will evaporate because of the way in which the money management is based on.

I was just keeping track of this system so that those who had seen how well it had done early on would realize how easily it can be burned down to nothing. Honestly, I wasn't expecting it to be this bad. Who could have predicted that one of the best teams in the league would lose 3 consecutive home games against crappy opponents while in a race to win the Conference.