NHL Betting System: Goal Scored And Allowed Systems

Something to look at.  That's why I want to make sure I put out the numbers daily.  We can go back and look at them...etc.

Just take everything on face value in your example.

Phi scores 3.5 goals per game on the road

CHI gives up 2 goals per game

The average you have is 2.9 goals /game.  

Yet you are predicting 5.2 goals for PHI

I believe the PHI 1.18 ratio and CHI 0.64 ratio is correct.  But I think you need to multiply all 3 together.

1.18*0.64*2.9 = 2.2 goals expect for PHI.  So the fact that Chicago is so much better vs average bring down their expected goals.

If CHI gave up 3.0 goals per game you would have 3.5/2.9 * 3.0/2.9 * 2.9 = 3.6.  PHI offense scores more than average and CHI gives up more than average, so PHI could take advantage of the poor defense and do better than they normally do.

thanks!  

Using Median instead of Average

Played both plus in a parlay.