Posted:
#176
GSGA
Nyr 0.631
Car 0.103
Stl 0.360
Chi 0.287
Veg 1.520
GSGA2
Nyr 0.931
Car 0.351
Stl 0.605
Chi 0.531
Veg 1.770
NHL Betting System: Goal Scored And Allowed Systems
Posted:
#181
Quote Originally Posted by budhachi:
First, thank you for posting and all your hard work. Just a quick question.... Does a goalie change affect the numbers? Just found your thread and will be following. Thanks.
No...the formula is strictly goals for and against. Like MLB against a top 20 pitcher in Sagarin ratings, up to you to decide on to play or not.
GSGA 430 - 294 $49.32
GSGA2 431 - 291 $38.77
^ is record to date if you played every team who had a better number than their opponent (using Cover's closing lines)
GSGA is using averages, GSGA2 uses the median.
https://www.sportsbookinsiders.com/betting-systems/702-575-nhl-betting-system-goal-averages
Posted:
#182
https://www.thegreek.com/sports-betting/hockey/nhl-betting-how-to-predict-hockey-games-using-a-mathematical-based-system
This site has use of medians, but I can only get my excel spreadsheet to state median "whole" numbers...3 instead of 2.87 as a median, while I know how to compute averages to any decimal.
Posted:
#184
GSGA5:
Win Min Nas Tor
GSGA5 Fade (Play):
Ott(Was)
Last 5 Play:
Win Nas Min
Last 5 Fade (Play):
Ott(Was)
Last 10 Play:
Win Tor
Last 10 Fade (Play):
System // ML W/L // // ML $$$ // // February // // February //
L5 Play // 117 - 107 // ($15.59) // 27 - 24 // $(6.87)
L5 Fade // 111 - 101 // ($23.18) // 20 - 22 // $(14.31)
L10 Play // 105 - 97 // ($22.78) // 30 - 21 // $(1.60)
L10 Fade // 113 - 94 // ($11.23) // 29 - 22 // $0.50
GSGA5 Play // 73 - 61 // ($10.45) // 29 - 21 // $(4.58)
GSGA5 Fade // 73 - 52 // ($4.92) // 29 - 20 // $(2.92)
Progs/Regres // 40 - 29 // ($6.25) // 7 - 7 // $(4.89)
Dogs // 147 - 253 // ($55.61) // 26 - 66 // $(28.49)
Rev Line // 88 - 101 // ($2.93) // 17 - 26 // $(7.49)
GSGA // 152 - 106 // ($5.90) // 39 - 21 // $1.73
GSGA2 // 185 - 115 // $8.84 // 43 - 24 // $(0.55)
Chase RL // 123 - 122 // ($8.92) // 38 - 26 // $10.21
Chase RL Fade // 122 - 123 // ($5.47) // 26 - 38 // $(13.21)
Posted:
#191
Since Feb 17th, I have wagered on every team on GSGA posted (mostly...if Dan Rules had a different team on his parlay, I played his team). My goal is to gain one unit for each day played.
Assuming San Jose loses, through 15 days of wagering, I am right at my goal of a unit a day. Not bad, considering the first day I lost 7.5 units.
For the uninitiated, I would adjust up if I have lost on a day or keep it at a unit if I'm at or above a unit/day. I just add a quarter or half unit to each play to adjust.
Year to Date:
GSGA 463 - 309 $60.26
GSGA2 462 - 308 $42.51
^^^ Does not include the Winnipeg and Minnesota wins and the San Jose game (currently losing 2-0 in 2nd period) . Dollar figure is as if wagering $1.00 as a unit....based on Cover's closing lines.
Posted:
#200
Quote Originally Posted by BlueStar57:
Step 3: figure out the number of predicted goals
Example using same game:
St Louis: .981 / .921 * 2.7 = 2.876, rounded to 2.9
Anaheim: 1.000 / .900 * 3.0 = 3.333, rounded to 3.3
These numbers aren't posted.
Quote Originally Posted by BlueStar57:
Example using teams from tonight's games - St Louis at Anaheim:
St Louis GF: 2.65 / 2.7 = .981
St Louis GA: 2.79 / 3.1 = .900
Anaheim GF: 3 / 3 = 1.000
Anaheim GA: 2.5 / 2.8 = .921
My numbers:
St Louis GF: 2.6764 / 2.7842 = .9613
St Louis GA: 2.7941 / 3.1093 = .8986
Anaheim GF: 3.0303 / 3.1093 = .9745
Anaheim GA: 2.6364 / 2.7842 = .9469
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