The web site I found said that it does well. Doesn't say exactly what dif amount does well and what doesn't. I haven't seen this tracked anywhere, which is why I wanted to do it...to be able to go back and see if the dif for the plays should be something else or not. I'm currently tracking a dif of at least 1 goal, but maybe it could be a half a goal...or not.
Also, we can see if the higher numbers work well for -1.5 lines...or not!
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The web site I found said that it does well. Doesn't say exactly what dif amount does well and what doesn't. I haven't seen this tracked anywhere, which is why I wanted to do it...to be able to go back and see if the dif for the plays should be something else or not. I'm currently tracking a dif of at least 1 goal, but maybe it could be a half a goal...or not.
Also, we can see if the higher numbers work well for -1.5 lines...or not!
I have just gone back and recorded the results for the year so far, and according to my calculations - this system is a destroyer!
Small sample size so far, I know - but using a 100 unit bankroll, here is what I have.
Firstly, I only play teams with a GD of greater than 0.7.
Total bets 40
Won 25, Lost 15 = 62.5%
Total wagers = 171.48 unit
Total profit = 72.8 units
ROI = 42.45%
Average bet size = 4.29 units
The way I am calculating bet sizes is simple modified version of kelly criterion.
Also Buckeye - I am not sure if there is a type for the plays posted for 19 Oct, but Tampa Bay has a number of 18.365 - seems very high for NHL, what is the story here?
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Hey Buckeye!
I have just gone back and recorded the results for the year so far, and according to my calculations - this system is a destroyer!
Small sample size so far, I know - but using a 100 unit bankroll, here is what I have.
Firstly, I only play teams with a GD of greater than 0.7.
Total bets 40
Won 25, Lost 15 = 62.5%
Total wagers = 171.48 unit
Total profit = 72.8 units
ROI = 42.45%
Average bet size = 4.29 units
The way I am calculating bet sizes is simple modified version of kelly criterion.
Also Buckeye - I am not sure if there is a type for the plays posted for 19 Oct, but Tampa Bay has a number of 18.365 - seems very high for NHL, what is the story here?
Good question on TB. I went back and checked all formulas etc. All I can say is that it must have been a mistake in a formula that I have since fixed unknowingly. They did win!!
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RM, no that's fine, post away.
Good question on TB. I went back and checked all formulas etc. All I can say is that it must have been a mistake in a formula that I have since fixed unknowingly. They did win!!
Good question on TB. I went back and checked all formulas etc. All I can say is that it must have been a mistake in a formula that I have since fixed unknowingly. They did win!!
If you don't mind posting the updated number for Tampa Bay 19 Oct so I can update my back testing.
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Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:
RM, no that's fine, post away.
Good question on TB. I went back and checked all formulas etc. All I can say is that it must have been a mistake in a formula that I have since fixed unknowingly. They did win!!
If you don't mind posting the updated number for Tampa Bay 19 Oct so I can update my back testing.
Road team’s (TB) offensive percentage by the home team’s (Cbus) defensive percentage, and then multiply that number by the league average for goals scored by the away team.
23.7926-3.2978= 20.4948 in TB favor. This might be off cause I had to manually add it up but because Cbus had an under 1 goal a game at the time, it skewed the numbers.
So, the number posted was correct.
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Road team’s (TB) offensive percentage by the home team’s (Cbus) defensive percentage, and then multiply that number by the league average for goals scored by the away team.
23.7926-3.2978= 20.4948 in TB favor. This might be off cause I had to manually add it up but because Cbus had an under 1 goal a game at the time, it skewed the numbers.
.... this can be a solid system if you have a large enough sample size to get decent averages, so this is probably better suited for later in the season. Teams can get off to a hot or cold start early in the season and the numbers could be skewed, so save this for the second half.
That's why we post, maybe it could be a good system early too.
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Quoted:
.... this can be a solid system if you have a large enough sample size to get decent averages, so this is probably better suited for later in the season. Teams can get off to a hot or cold start early in the season and the numbers could be skewed, so save this for the second half.
That's why we post, maybe it could be a good system early too.
I wonder if its best to use a system like this, but only take into account more recent results like L10 or maybe even L20?
In my opinion (and itsonly opinion based from observations) there is no point in using data from October to make picks in February.
What skills are required to build spreadsheets that you do Kaptn? My mathematics is sound, however when it comes to using computers I don't know much. Would you advise learning any computer coding, or any specific functions in excel?
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I wonder if its best to use a system like this, but only take into account more recent results like L10 or maybe even L20?
In my opinion (and itsonly opinion based from observations) there is no point in using data from October to make picks in February.
What skills are required to build spreadsheets that you do Kaptn? My mathematics is sound, however when it comes to using computers I don't know much. Would you advise learning any computer coding, or any specific functions in excel?
What skills are required to build spreadsheets that you do Kaptn? My mathematics is sound, however when it comes to using computers I don't know much. Would you advise learning any computer coding, or any specific functions in excel?
When I started using spreadsheets, I was like 5 year old learning math. I followed DeGen and his spreadsheet thread. I downloaded most of what he made. I used it but tore copies apart looking at formulas. DeGen was my teacher by making a lot of spreadsheets. I just happened to decipher them, and learn from them. I keep almost all of my old spreadsheets that I make, in case there's a formula I forgot about.
I also went and bought Excel for Dummies....seriously!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:
What skills are required to build spreadsheets that you do Kaptn? My mathematics is sound, however when it comes to using computers I don't know much. Would you advise learning any computer coding, or any specific functions in excel?
When I started using spreadsheets, I was like 5 year old learning math. I followed DeGen and his spreadsheet thread. I downloaded most of what he made. I used it but tore copies apart looking at formulas. DeGen was my teacher by making a lot of spreadsheets. I just happened to decipher them, and learn from them. I keep almost all of my old spreadsheets that I make, in case there's a formula I forgot about.
I also went and bought Excel for Dummies....seriously!!!
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