Posted:
#26
Team Dif
Bos 2.910
Ari 0.691
Win 1.924
Tor 3.934
Tb 1.650
Ott 0.017
La 0.354
Fla 2.382
Nyi 0.055
Dal 0.354
Was 1.508
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NHL Betting System: Goal Scored And Allowed Systems
Posted:
#38
I don't understand the equation approach. ARI is one of the worst Defense in the league, but you divide DET off by their defense gives the projected goals for DET less than they average and vs the worst defense in the league.
Seems you should multiply DET off * ARI def / average def on road. i.e. DET should perform above their average, not below.
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Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by mpg137:
I don't understand the equation approach. ARI is one of the worst Defense in the league, but you divide DET off by their defense gives the projected goals for DET less than they average and vs the worst defense in the league.
I don't understand the equation approach. ARI is one of the worst Defense in the league, but you divide DET off by their defense gives the projected goals for DET less than they average and vs the worst defense in the league.
Seems you should multiply DET off * ARI def / average def on road. i.e. DET should perform above their average, not below.
The equation for Detroit is (Home Offense / Road Defense)*League Ave Home....(2.5/4.29) * 3.215=1.874
Opposite for Arizona....(2.71/3.25) * 2.966=2.473
Arizona "favored" at .599. (My spreadsheet takes the decimals further on all equations..that's why this number difference from above).
Quoted from web site:
"For example, you would take the road team’s offensive percentage by the home team’s defensive percentage, and then multiply that number by the league average for goals scored by the away team. That would give you the predicted number of goals for the road team in this particular matchup.
To find the home team’s predicted goals, do the same thing, just switch the teams where applicable."
Detroit's at home tonight
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Posted:
#40
I wanted to use this thread to keep track all season of the numbers.....to be able to back track and see what plays could be made from this. Early in the thread, I suggested looking at a difference of one full goal, as a start, to be a play. Using that logic, none of the above would be a play (post 37).
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Posted:
#41
I found another equation to predict goals on a different web site. I'm going to set it up on my spreadsheet and add it below the current one. It's based on medians, not averages. Plus, there's a formula to give a percentage to win and to give a money line prediction. Might as well post these numbers to track as well.
Google this: Mathematical Based NHL Predictions
The first entry was the web site on my search
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Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by mpg137:
"For example, you would take the road team’s offensive percentage by the home team’s defensive percentage"That's not what you are doing. You are taking the average goals / game - not the offense percentage. The offense percentage is teams goals / average goals.
"For example, you would take the road team’s offensive percentage by the home team’s defensive percentage"That's not what you are doing. You are taking the average goals / game - not the offense percentage. The offense percentage is teams goals / average goals.
This web site has confused me...it doesn't give examples. Since your post, I've been going through my formulas etc to see if I read the web site correctly in my calculations.
The paragraph before the one you quoted:
"Then you would check out the two teams in the matchup for which you are looking to bet on, and starting with the home team, you would take the number of goals they average on their own ice and divide it into the league average to figure out their percentage compared to the rest of the NHL. You do this for both the goals scored and against, for both the home and away teams."
I did forget a step, but you have it backwards...its League Average/Home Ice Average.
I'm not arguing, I just want to make sure I get this right. The web site I found for post #41 has examples and I was doing the formuli for it now onto my spreadsheet.
Let me know what you think.
It looks like Covers is switching over to the new format. I was logged out under the old, wouldn't let melog in until I switched to the new format.
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Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:
I did forget a step, but you have it backwards...its League Average/Home Ice Average. I'm not arguing, I just want to make sure I get this right. The web site I found for post #41 has examples and I was doing the formuli for it now onto my spreadsheet. Let me know what you think. It looks like Covers is switching over to the new format. I was logged out under the old, wouldn't let melog in until I switched to the new format.
I did forget a step, but you have it backwards...its League Average/Home Ice Average. I'm not arguing, I just want to make sure I get this right. The web site I found for post #41 has examples and I was doing the formuli for it now onto my spreadsheet. Let me know what you think. It looks like Covers is switching over to the new format. I was logged out under the old, wouldn't let melog in until I switched to the new format.
looking at the new web site in post #41 and comparing with the above, I have it backwards...it's team ave/league ave. Mathematical word problems suck and it's been a long time since I had a high school test on math.
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Posted:
#45
MPG, check me if I'm doing this right...For Phil away vs Chic
Phil ave 3.5 goals scored away....3.5 / 2.967 (league away ave goals) = 1.18
Chc ave 2.0 goals against home....2.0/2.967 = .674
1.18/.674=1.75....1.75*2.967 (league away ave goals) = 5.192
...you would take the number of goals they average on away and divide it into the league average to figure out their percentage compared to the rest of the NHL. You do this for both the goals scored and against...
... you would take the road team’s offensive percentage by the home team’s defensive percentage, and then multiply that number by the league average for goals scored by the away team. That would give you the predicted number of goals for the road team in this particular matchup. ...
Did I do this correctly,as this is what I'm doing...
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Posted:
#46
Added new projections called GSGA2 from different web site using medians instead of averages (for league scoring). I will reset GSGA in other thread to zero as I messed up a bit as you can tell from above. Still waiting for MPG to reply current formulas are correct. I will adjust if need.
GSGA
Phi 1.803
Pit 0.059
Nj 1.814
Tor 0.739
Sj 1.960
GSGA2
Chi 1.556
Edm 0.972
Nj 2.556
Tor 0.556
Sj 0.722
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