New YPPT Method

My mistake.

If you bet a -7 team and the team win by 10 you are +3 action points. because you beat the psread by 3.  If win by 4 you are -3 action points.  Little different than the post but you get it. 

It is a way to predict the accuracy of a system and much more accurate than your win loss record ATS when the system meets your criteria (7 points off).  This was you keep track of the action points for all the bets you would be making, if the sytem meets your criteria.  Your goal is to be as positive as possible.  You could go 120-80 over 200 bets that meet your criteria but if you are negative action points your system is a long term loser and you are just getting lucky. 

Like i said market argeeance is even stronger but none of you guys are going to run those tests.  Figured someone might not be lazy enought to run the action points test tho.  I wont be however.  I have ran almost every variation of the dudley, and i deffinatly consider this a variation of the dudley with a few simple additions, and they do not give a long term edge.  Especially in the NFL.  Regression and averages are great from showing how a team as performed.  They are not nessearily good for predicting how a team will perform. 

Correction, none of us (or at least not me) are smart enough to run those tests.  Laziness has little to do with it.  After I can wrap my head around what is going on with this system, perhaps a guy can test it for flaws/improvements.

Good luck

  Are these the correct no.'s ? or what ?

S.F. 7

Ind. 35

I agree with Recon168's numbers of 31 to 14.  I'll try to paste part of the sheet here and hopefully it works.

Great work on it Recon, I think it looks solid.  SF is the first paste

Indy's calculations

Exactly!

Hey nflnut.

Some of your starting numbers are different than mine.  I got the following:

sfo  98.3 ry  173.7 py 12.3 yppt

ind 91.7 ry   310.8 py  13.5 yppt

Hey Lou4062 and NFLNut and Rob,

The number for SF is correct, but I was pointed out that I used the wrong SOS numbers for INDY, so instead of 31, like I originally got, I also have 21.9, like Lou4062, then after adding/subtracting the HFA, I have a final number of SF 13.9 Indy 23.2, so basically 14 to 24, it could be 14 to 23 as those numbers are denitely possible.

And thanks again Lou4062 for the SOS, that's exactly how I calculated it, just used the wrong numbers.  Now to add more games and test it out further.

Now not that confused!

For indy I got (after sos applied)

352.3 ty  and 16.1 tl yppt for 21.9 pts 

No problem recon, I'm glad you got it straghtened out. This is all fun for me!

Hey guys I found this, interesting:

Home Field Advantage in the NFL

In the NFL, home field advantage (HFA) also increases from the regular season to the playoffs even though the league’s single-game playoff format provides no incentive to prolong a series. One big reason for the difference is due to the relative strength of opponents.

The NFL’s regular season HFA is 57%--the home team wins 57 out of 100 times. But in the playoffs it’s 68%. The biggest difference between regular season games and playoff games is the relative strength of opponents. Regular season games can feature mismatches, but playoff games feature only opponents who are relatively close in ability.

When teams are well-matched in ability, other factors such as HFA, which are normally small, appear more decisive. There are fewer cases of games that feature a strong visitor against a weak home team in the playoffs. The winning percentage of the home team would therefore naturally increase.

Home Court Advantage in the NBA

In the NBA, HCA is even stronger than the NFL’s HFA. Think of home advantage not as a game-long effect, but as a tiny advantage on each possession. The NBA plays quickly with a short shot clock and long 48 minute games. It’s a sport on speed. Each team gets about 100 possessions per game. Over the course of each possession, a HCA effect accrues into a very large game-long effect. HCA in the NBA is unusually strong for natural reasons having nothing to do with bias.

In the NBA playoffs, HCA is magnified by the same process at work in the NFL. Teams are closer in ability, and therefore other factors such as HCA appear to be more decisive.

https://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/06/bias-and-home-advantage-in-nba-vs-nfl.html

Why wouldn't we use the road stats for SF and the home stats for Indy and ignore any Home Field Advantage adjustment ?

Quote Originally Posted by jesterr:

...
but then we have a problem with SOS calculating.

Using road and home stats only (not all games), no HFA index of 1.36, and no strenght of schedule, SF 13 (13.86) to Indy 23 (23.35)

HFA index used = SF 13 (12.5) to Indy 24 (24.71)

Any glaring holes in that thougth process ?

Thanks Jesterr...I just PM'd my email address.

Couple general questions for those in the know on this sheet:

1. One key calculation seems to be yardage differential, and then strength of schedule yardage differential. Given that a team's efficiency at defending the run against a stronger schedule seems like it ought to weigh more heavily than their opponents relative ability to gain yards against a weaker schedule, why just average the two? I know I explained that poorly, but put simply, it seems we just "average" some data points where it seems that more sophisticated conideration might be due. Thoughts?

2. It seems Yards per Point is this model's way of considering turnovers. Are we weighing it appropriately per the typical correlation of turnover ratio's to victories or points scored? In other words, it would seem that if you used historical data, turnover differential is a key predictor for a game's result, even more so than yard differential. So is our use of YPPT appropriate in these calculations?

Hi NFLNut,

Do you mean for example for SF/Indy, using SF's Off Road Game numbers and using Indy's Off Home Game numbers?

NFLNut, that's a good point, let me try modifying my spreadsheet and see what the numbers are.

Using the Road Games and Home Games Averages, I get

SF 16.66, Ind 19.44

Ari 27.23

NO 37.65

Okay guys, whoever was working on the Home/Road game stats, let me know if you got the right numbers:

SF 16.66
IND 19.44

Min 21.62
GB 17.60

Den 15.40
Balt 15.36

Cle 8.60
Chi 26.67

Hou 23.66
Buf 16.64

Mia 8.94
NYJ 12.47

StL 6.40
Det 20.77

Oak 10.81
SD 28.45

Jac 14.35
Ten 37.39

Car 13.17
Ari 31.42

NYG 52.07
Phi 23.98

Atl 27.23
NO 37.65