New YPPT Method

Hey rkydkydoc,

Have been following you guys on the system and like everyone else trying coming up with differnt # than what you have .. Can you help me, want to help contribute to the system, want to make sure that we all are on the same page ...

I came up with  FL ST - 20 UNC 24  ??

I came up with different numbers using yppl:

FSU 20
UNC 31

Mr803,

Looks as though we have FL ST down correctly seems to be on the UNC side .... VG,rkyd - Any input on this ....

[Quote: Originally Posted by rkydkydoc]

FLAST 110+223=333/12.97=25.67

NC       117+212=339/11.77=28.80

28-24 NC

Easy to see why NC is  a 2.5pt favorite! I show you my numbers in a hour or so 

I have FSU 31 UNC 20, dont understand why there are some many different results that people are getting.    

rkydyk,

Here is what I came up with .. Missing something somewhere

FSU - 103.5+ 240.55=344.05/17.78 =19.35 (20)

UNC-113.5+206.56=320.06/13.86=23.09(24) 

VG these are your numbers, beside them are what I came up with...

Hey ncsutodd, any chance you could send me your spread sheet having trouble getting info from statfox to load up ??? TKS

OK Lets Break Down the FSU/NC game

I'm not claiming to be 100% correct but I think its pretty darn accurate to what roughdrod31 was showing at the beginning of this thread. Originally he didn't include HFA (home field adavantage) but we will from here.

Start with FSU (sos) strenght of schedule/saragin USA Today

FSU 77.68

NC 65.38 + 3.50(HFA)=69.08

Add 77.68+69.08=146.76 Divide by 2 to get AVE. 146.76/2=73.38

FSU 77.76 divided by 73.38 = 1.06 (1.059)

This number will be used to calculate FSU offense and NC YPPT

NC 69.08 divided by 73.78 = .94

Start with FSU (we'll round up) All numbers from statfox

                RUSH     PASS       YPPT

FSU(off)    128(-8)    298(+86)    14.3(+1.5)

OPP DEF  136        212            15.8

NC(def)      113(-25)  125(-28)     16.8(-3.2)

OPP OFF   138        153            13.6

FSU Rushing  128+NCDEF 113= 241/2 AVE 120.5

AVE Between OPP (-8) - (-25)= -33/2 AVE -16.5

FSU RUSH 120.5 + (-16.5) = 104 x FSUsos 1.06= 110

FSU Passing   298+125=423/2 AVE 211.5

AVE Between OPP +86 - (-28) =58/2 AVE  +29

FSU PASS     211.5 + 29 = 240.5 xFSUsos 1.06 =255

(the 255 is differant from my other post couldn't read my writing,sorry)

 YPPT            14.3 + 16.8 =31.2/2 AVE 15.5

                       +1.5 - (-3.2) = -1.7

                      15.5+ -1.7 = 13.8 x NCsos .94 = 12.97

FSU  110 + 255 = 365 / 12.97 = 28.14

                      RUSH     PASS      YPPT

NC (off)            111(-42)   172(-8)    12.5(-.6)

OPP DEF AVE 153          180        11.9

FSU(def)           174(+5)    252(+36) 15.1(-2.1)

OPP OFF AVE  169          216         13.0

NC RUSH         111+174= 285/2 AVE 142.5

AVE Between OPP -42 - (+5) = -37/2 = (-18.5)

 Total                142.5 +(-18.5) = 124 x NCsos.94=117

NC PASS          172 + 252 = 424/2 AVE 212

AVE Between OPP (-8) - (+36) = +28/2 = +14

     Total               212 + 14 = 226 x NCsos .94  = 212    

YPPT                  12.5 + 15.1 = 27.6/2 = 13.8

                           ( -.6) - (-2.1) = -2.7

                            13.8 + (-2.7) = 11.1 x FSUsos 1.06 = 11.77

NC     117 + 212 = 339/11.77 = 28.80

             FSU  28.14  27

             NC    28.80  30       

Number seem pretty close to me NC ave. 29 at home and FSU ave 29 for the year

rkydkydoc,
just to reiterate this, roughshod's original calculation adds the ave between instead of subtracting it.

in his orig jets/dolphins he shows (+31.1) - (-28.1) = +3/2 = 1.5

which is what i have done

rkydky- I think what roughshod was doing was pulling (+/-) the numbers from the original R & P where Skan is breaking it out as its own line item ... still the same result, little easier to understand this way ....

Skan - Do you have a spreadsheet set up for pulling from statfox ??

Thanks for the explaination... Its getting clearer each time I do it ..Just need to work together and get a spread sheet distributed that would be easier for everyone ..

This is what I had in mind when I started this thread. A group of people sharing ideas & testing different things.  I think we have only scratched the surface as far as the possibilities with this. Keep up the good work everyone. I will post again in a few hours with a couple of new wrinkles in my formula.

GL 

rkydkydoc,

I might be missing something here, but why are you not averaging out the differences between the YPPT like you do for everything else.

for example for FSU passing

FSU Passing   298+125=423/2 AVE 211.5

AVE Between OPP +86 - (-28) =58/2 AVE  +29

FSU PASS     211.5 + 29 = 240.5 xFSUsos 1.06 =255

you clearly averaged out the 423/2 and 58/2 and added them together.

but for YPPT, for example

 YPPT            14.3 + 16.8 =31.2/2 AVE 15.5

                       +1.5 - (-3.2) = -1.7

                      15.5+ -1.7 = 13.8 x NCsos .94 = 12.97

You only average out one calculation. How come you don't do -1.7/2 as well?

Also, what version of the system are you using rkydkydoc?

and what is the difference between this version and the one VGPOP wrote out in detail on page 16 because that is the one I am using right now.

And using the one on page 16, I get

FSU 24
UNC 23

So it is a pretty big difference. I want to know how come and which is better.

How did I miss this gem of a thread the last few weeks?

 

 

Sorry I missed that , you absolutley need to do that!

So it should readFSU 15.5 + -.85 =14.65 x .94 = 13.77

                         NC    13.8 + -1.35 =12.45 x 1.06 = 13.19

FSU 365/13.77 =26.5

NC 339/13.19 = 25.7

I"ll MAKE CHANGES ON THE ABOVE POST

wtf... i have
fsu - 25
unc - 19

hey man i really like your numbers but i had one question on the equation how did you get these numbers

OPP DEF  136        212            15.8

same here
i did what VGPOP suggested in post #255

SORRY FOR THE PHUCK UP CHANGES IN BOLD BELOW

OK Lets Break Down the FSU/NC game

I'm not claiming to be 100% correct but I think its pretty darn accurate to what roughdrod31 was showing at the beginning of this thread. Originally he didn't include HFA (home field adavantage) but we will from here.

Start with FSU (sos) strenght of schedule/saragin USA Today

FSU 77.68

NC 65.38 + 3.50(HFA)=69.08

Add 77.68+69.08=146.76 Divide by 2 to get AVE. 146.76/2=73.38

FSU 77.76 divided by 73.38 = 1.06 (1.059)

This number will be used to calculate FSU offense and NC YPPT

NC 69.08 divided by 73.78 = .94

Start with FSU (we'll round up) All numbers from statfox

                RUSH     PASS       YPPT

FSU(off)    128(-8)    298(+86)    14.3(+1.5)

OPP DEF  136        212            15.8

NC(def)      113(-25)  125(-28)     16.8(-3.2)

OPP OFF   138        153            13.6

FSU Rushing  128+NCDEF 113= 241/2 AVE 120.5

AVE Between OPP (-8) - (-25)= -33/2 AVE -16.5

FSU RUSH 120.5 + (-16.5) = 104 x FSUsos 1.06= 110

FSU Passing   298+125=423/2 AVE 211.5

AVE Between OPP +86 - (-28) =58/2 AVE  +29

FSU PASS     211.5 + 29 = 240.5 xFSUsos 1.06 =255

(the 255 is differant from my other post couldn't read my writing,sorry)

 YPPT            14.3 + 16.8 =31.2/2 AVE 15.5

                       +1.5 - (-3.2) = -1.7/2 = -.85

              15.5+ -.85 = 14.65 x NCsos .94 = 13.77

FSU  110 + 255 = 365 / 13.77 = 26.5

                      RUSH     PASS      YPPT

NC (off)            111(-42)   172(-8)    12.5(-.6)

OPP DEF AVE 153          180        11.9

FSU(def)           174(+5)    252(+36) 15.1(-2.1)

OPP OFF AVE  169          216         13.0

NC RUSH         111+174= 285/2 AVE 142.5

AVE Between OPP -42 - (+5) = -37/2 = (-18.5)

 Total                142.5 +(-18.5) = 124 x NCsos.94=117

NC PASS          172 + 252 = 424/2 AVE 212

AVE Between OPP (-8) - (+36) = +28/2 = +14

     Total               212 + 14 = 226 x NCsos .94  = 212    

YPPT                  12.5 + 15.1 = 27.6/2 = 13.8

                           ( -.6) - (-2.1) = -2.7/2 = -1.35

                13.8 + (-1.35) = 12.45 x FSUsos 1.06 = 13.19

                  NC     117 + 212 = 339/13.19= 25.7

             FSU 26.5

             NC    25.7

Number seem pretty close to me NC ave. 29 at home and FSU ave 29 for the year

SORRY AGAIN FOR THE CONFUSION , THANKS  RM

 

[/Quote]

using VGPOP's formula I end up with
FSU 25
NC 20

so it is pretty consistent with some of the other posters.
So according to this no play on the game. but if you were desperate the right move according to this would be FSU

er excuse my last post. according to this the play is actually FSU.

I have been following this for a while.

I got Fsu 31

Unc  23

 

Love the ideas in the forums