MLB system releases...

Excellent stuff.  My numbers agree with strong leans on both Florida and Minnesota today.  Through 4 online books I subscribe to, I can't find anything within 25 points of the lines you are quoting for those games, but I am going for it anyway.

Good luck.

Try matchbook.

Surfer - In order to secure long term success one must understand and apply advantage play. That is to cap a game, create a line that is closer to the "correct" probability of outcome. Your lean is the basis for this. Compare probability (your line) to the books odds, there are online tools for this is you don't know the math, the outcome is what is known as "Edge" or "Value" . This is how casinos make $$$. No Edge no play. The above is derived from "Bayesian estimation" as I posted earlier.  The difficult part is to have discipline and be able to creat a line that consistently beats the book. SN has obviously done this. You are progressing to be a successful handicapper. There is much to learn and takes time and experience.
Slow and steady drip fills the bucket.
Regards, BLKN

[Quote: Originally Posted by UsaSurfer]

Excellent stuff.  My numbers agree with strong leans on both Florida and Minnesota today.  Through 4 online books I subscribe to, I can't find anything within 25 points of the lines you are quoting for those games, but I am going for it anyway.

Good luck.

 

 

the lines posted have flucuated, as you can see by the time connected to the published post, they are the best available, but change through out the day, and can be had at the time posted.. refered to as: over-night line, early- line, and opening- line...many cappers buy, and sell the line through out the day, which enables them to make a "no risk" wager by betting on both teams, on games that qualify on the buy sell handicapping format. The profit is minimal, and risk free...

SN

Yeah, sports arbitrage is one of the few 'locks' (almost!) that exists in wagering.
I made some good money off this for a few years but it's a lot work if you're finding arbitrage opportunities manually (usually the best kind).

DB1976 - I highly doubt you are too dumb for the math. If you completed the fourth grade in the USA you know it. Start here if not done so already  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_Runs.  Then go to Baseball reference and get to work.

In addition from post # 1686 -
I would study and fully comprehend the "what and why" of the formulas.   The following links should be of assistance.
https://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Base_Runs
https://www.tangotiger.net/
https://www.baseball1.com/
https://gosu02.tripod.com/id69.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created


If you are serious it just takes work. If you want to pull the "Sad Sam, poor me" that's you choice.  I would wager you are better than that -   BOL, BLKN

To each his own. following this thread, and making "nice money"  would be considered intelligent, not dumb....please continue with your prosperity..constructive advice; try using a 'formula' calculator, they work wonders...best regards

 

SN

Marlins-120 ML

Royals+188 RL

 

SN

A well maintained Book, geared for MLB wagering....

 

SN

Blacken, I completely understand the idea here and the logic behind it.  However I don't know how to apply it.  Once I have done my statistical analysis and looked at a few situational items, how do I estimate my own line?  You mentioned online tools.  Could you post something or send me a private message?

Ralph/Snyder,

Again I understand the concept here, but I wouldn't know where to begin the application.  A few questions....

1) How do you determine which lines are going to move significantly enough, and in the right direction?

2) Where do you find these opening lines where you place your original bet?

Using the Florida game as an example, where did you find an opening line of -120 in order to place your first bet?  None of the books I use were ever that low. Also, how would you know for sure that this line would move 30 to 50 points and give you the opportunity for arbitrage?

Blacken, just to elaborate in case I am being to vague......when I looked at the Florida matchup today and ran those BR/RC calcs, I didn't do anything quantitative to determine the strength of the lean.  I merely said to myself qualitatively "Wow this game has everything you can ask for, the right numbers, the right situation..... the Marlins are going to smoke them".  Obviously this is a key difference between a total rookie like myself and veterans like you and SN.  So the question is, how do you make the transition to quantitative analysis of my own line versus the Vegas line?

Also, SN, sorry for so many posts on your thread, but I imagine that these are topics everyone would be interested in discussing.

definately not for the novice/in-experienced capper, takes a few seasons to even comprehend concept, not to mention how to handicapp games that qualify, a true professional 'move'...you must  really anticipate the start of NFL, where I have used this formula successfully for years..Good info for those not familiar with  this risk free advantage of buying, and selling the line(day trading) may you prosper always...

SN

Interesting information regarding ballparks.

https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/home_runs_and_ballparks/

Great Questions Surfer. This thread takes a positive turn as we sit at the table and discuss Sabermetrics applied to MLB handicapping.
 First understand these are my opinions not gospel and the details most probably differ from other perspectives. Therefore I speak in more general terms.
 Your statement "I didn't do anything quantitative to determine the strength of the lean." tells me You already know there is more work to be done. Use your Br/Rc leans as a filter, as a base qualification. Your understanding of of Br/Rc has given you the knowledge and understanding that it is based on historical events. The result is a more accurate account than traditional statistical means of handicapping. The lean is based on derived scores not necessarily probable scores. This is where personal choice and experience enters into creating a form in order to create a more accurate score. I.E. recent player performance, weather, etc. Basic handicapping.
 Apply Pythagorean expectation ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation ) This will give you your expected probability of outcome.
 This this can be converted to a ML by this online tool:

https://www.usagambler.net/MoneyLineConverter.aspx

or if you want to calculate on your own simply apply;

For favorites:    (expected win % / (1 - expected win %))*100
I.E.    (.55 / (1-.55))*100  = 122 or (-122)

For Dogs: ((1-expected win %) / expected win %)*100
I.E.    ((1-0.45) / 0.45)*100  =  122

NOTICE that this is a no vig line.


Calculating Edge is not any harder but would take up much more space. Edge comes from the $ amount you would get by winning compared to the odds you lay. 
Serious individuals interested in gaining insight and knowledge are welcome to PM me for details. - BLKN

Careful with officiating crews that love to hand out 15 yard penalties.  They have more to work with.