Posted:
#1776
In the meantime, what happened to Chris Volstad and the Marlins bullpen? I don't think any of the nubmers pointed to the Nationals putting up 12 runs to sweep the Fish.
0
MLB system releases...
Posted:
#1778
Quote Originally Posted by BLACKEN1772:
Great Questions Surfer. This thread takes a positive turn as we sit at the table and discuss Sabermetrics applied to MLB handicapping.
First understand these are my opinions not gospel and the details most probably differ from other perspectives. Therefore I speak in more general terms.
Your statement "I didn't do anything quantitative to determine the strength of the lean." tells me You already know there is more work to be done. Use your Br/Rc leans as a filter, as a base qualification. Your understanding of of Br/Rc has given you the knowledge and understanding that it is based on historical events. The result is a more accurate account than traditional statistical means of handicapping. The lean is based on derived scores not necessarily probable scores. This is where personal choice and experience enters into creating a form in order to create a more accurate score. I.E. recent player performance, weather, etc. Basic handicapping.
Apply Pythagorean expectation ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation ) This will give you your expected probability of outcome.
This this can be converted to a ML by this online tool:
https://www.usagambler.net/MoneyLineConverter.aspx
or if you want to calculate on your own simply apply;
For favorites: (expected win % / (1 - expected win %))*100
I.E. (.55 / (1-.55))*100 = 122 or (-122)
For Dogs: ((1-expected win %) / expected win %)*100
I.E. ((1-0.45) / 0.45)*100 = 122
NOTICE that this is a no vig line.
Calculating Edge is not any harder but would take up much more space. Edge comes from the $ amount you would get by winning compared to the odds you lay.
Serious individuals interested in gaining insight and knowledge are welcome to PM me for details. - BLKN
Great Questions Surfer. This thread takes a positive turn as we sit at the table and discuss Sabermetrics applied to MLB handicapping.
First understand these are my opinions not gospel and the details most probably differ from other perspectives. Therefore I speak in more general terms.
Your statement "I didn't do anything quantitative to determine the strength of the lean." tells me You already know there is more work to be done. Use your Br/Rc leans as a filter, as a base qualification. Your understanding of of Br/Rc has given you the knowledge and understanding that it is based on historical events. The result is a more accurate account than traditional statistical means of handicapping. The lean is based on derived scores not necessarily probable scores. This is where personal choice and experience enters into creating a form in order to create a more accurate score. I.E. recent player performance, weather, etc. Basic handicapping.
Apply Pythagorean expectation ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation ) This will give you your expected probability of outcome.
This this can be converted to a ML by this online tool:
https://www.usagambler.net/MoneyLineConverter.aspx
or if you want to calculate on your own simply apply;
For favorites: (expected win % / (1 - expected win %))*100
I.E. (.55 / (1-.55))*100 = 122 or (-122)
For Dogs: ((1-expected win %) / expected win %)*100
I.E. ((1-0.45) / 0.45)*100 = 122
NOTICE that this is a no vig line.
Calculating Edge is not any harder but would take up much more space. Edge comes from the $ amount you would get by winning compared to the odds you lay.
Serious individuals interested in gaining insight and knowledge are welcome to PM me for details. - BLKN
BLKN, thanks for your time. I am very eager to start working with these calculations.
0
Posted:
#1780
Surfer,
I feel your pain, as a novice sabermetrician myself, I feel I have a grasp on all of the theories and concepts. I have read tangotiger and james ad naseum. I get the formulas, I just cannot connect them all together.
Blacken, trying to tie SN's numbers with the Pythagorean expectation is an idea I just can't grasp. Can you, as best you can, try to give us an example of this? Once we see it once, I know everything will click for a lot of us who are serious about learning these methods, but still seek the missing link.
Thanks a mil,
batty
0
Posted:
#1784
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Thursday 08/06/09 Base_Runs formula...
Marlins-120 ML...loss
Pirates+128 ML....loss
Twins-125 ML.....loss
Rangers-115 ML...win
Yankees+115 RL...win
Royals+188 RL...win
sixPACformulated
projected ratio: 4/6 66.6%
R/R status ratio: 6/22 27.2% (day one)
SN
FINAL RESULTS:
3-3
units: +8.2
R/R status ratio: 14/22 63.6% (day two)
SN
0
Posted:
#1786
BillWag27, informative link, thx...on your behalf, check this extreme analysis site: fangraph.com take care..
SN
0
Posted:
#1794
.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/sabermetrics-in-the-mainstream
As Per SN Request. Very good sight! - BLKN
As Per SN Request. Very good sight! - BLKN
0
Posted:
#1796
Quote Originally Posted by BLACKEN1772:
.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/sabermetrics-in-the-mainstream
As Per SN Request. Very good sight! - BLKN
.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/sabermetrics-in-the-mainstream
As Per SN Request. Very good sight! - BLKN
Thx BLACKEN1772, appreciate your time.....I would strongly recommend to those involved in the sabermetrician approach to MLB handicapping to click onto this link ASAP for a 'clear' and in-depth understanding to concept..this will iron out, and explain any confusion you may have regarding 'insight'...(if interested) the best to all
SN
0
Posted:
#1798
TOR pitching change Cecil for Romero. I have Cecil slated for tonight I don't know when the change was made and could have been before the games were posted therefore most would not realize a switch. I thought I would pass it on. There has been a $.30 neg line move since 10pm est last night.
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