Destroy the Books! *Double your Bankroll*
Any way one can still access that thread documenting, step-by-step the net 212.5% upward march from $1,600 to $5,000.
I'm only hours-old to this forum and just a few weeks-old to ISR ("Investing in Sports Results"), but I've been teaching college statistics for decades, so i should find the thread an instructive one to work my way through, polishing up my spreadsheet in retro-realtime as I go.
BTW, I see ur in Ontario...I grew up in Windsor (the ONLY safe side of Detroit, lol), Ontario, and studied at Western, but that was EONS ago...I now live 12 time-zones away...but i can still turn a statement into a question, "eh?" (overall an improvement over it's south-of-the-border equivalent, "huh"?).
Anyhow i'd love to see the thread that preceded this one if at all possible.
Ray
Any way one can still access that thread documenting, step-by-step the net 212.5% upward march from $1,600 to $5,000.
I'm only hours-old to this forum and just a few weeks-old to ISR ("Investing in Sports Results"), but I've been teaching college statistics for decades, so i should find the thread an instructive one to work my way through, polishing up my spreadsheet in retro-realtime as I go.
BTW, I see ur in Ontario...I grew up in Windsor (the ONLY safe side of Detroit, lol), Ontario, and studied at Western, but that was EONS ago...I now live 12 time-zones away...but i can still turn a statement into a question, "eh?" (overall an improvement over it's south-of-the-border equivalent, "huh"?).
Anyhow i'd love to see the thread that preceded this one if at all possible.
Ray
Fitguy67 - click on the blue numbers DJ posted.. it's a hyperlink to the thread you want.
Here --> 1.6k to 5k <-- click
Cheers
Fitguy67 - click on the blue numbers DJ posted.. it's a hyperlink to the thread you want.
Here --> 1.6k to 5k <-- click
Cheers
Crawley Town +2.5 [-105] 2% -162.28 to win 154.55
Crawley Town +2.5 [-105] 2% -162.28 to win 154.55
I try to play your top play every day for the past two weeks. Don't know a thing about even one of the Soccer teams in your picks, but it's been great to have a play in the early afternoon every day at work. I f%#i&ing hate my job, but your picks just MAKE my day. Thanks for your contribution to this forum.
I try to play your top play every day for the past two weeks. Don't know a thing about even one of the Soccer teams in your picks, but it's been great to have a play in the early afternoon every day at work. I f%#i&ing hate my job, but your picks just MAKE my day. Thanks for your contribution to this forum.
Announcement: Important Milestone has just been met by DJ_Destroyer (Reference Account has MORE-THAN-QUINTUPLED in just the last 238 days)
As you know when he started out on June 26 in his challenge with SuperEagle (who rather quickly departed) it was a race from 1,600 to 5000…and it was completed in an amazing 107 days on Oct 10 (and was almost completed about 6 weeks earlier than that in mid-August)…ending with 5,186.59…a huge 224.16% gain over starting capital.
Almost immediately he started this thread, with the stated goal of doubling that account. Rather than keeping it at 5,186.59…he decided to round down to 5,000 and as of yesterday’s close you can see above it’s grown already from that to it’s current 8,114.12…which works out to another great performance…logging 62.28% gain over the startup roll just another 121 days.
Anyhow, I decided to “splice” the two records together and see what would have become of, say, a nice round $1000 starting at day#1, June 26 before the first bet was placed…well by the end of the challenge completion it had become 3,241.62….and if that $3,241.62k had simply been rolled into this thread…as of yesterday it just hit $5,258.47…for a phenomenal 425.85% addition onto the starting thousand…and putting the account at 25% beyond QUINTUPLE…in just 238 days…so overall we’re looking at 1.79% gain over the starting capital EVERY DAY, 12.52% WEEKLY, 54.46% MONTHLY, and, get this…653.09% annually.
What’s truly amazing to me is that DJ’s has done all this without a good win%...the first phase was a passable 53.03% rate…but over this thread the rate is only 49.28%...but has still managed the super performance anyone tailing him appreciates. Despite putting on a huge number of bets, 1078 over the 238 day period with just a 51.13% hit rate… which would cause most accounts to erode terribly, DJ seems to guage his own confidence with amazing accuracy, and it’s the constistent success rate on the large-baggers, the 5%+ bets that account for the overall brilliant record, which has never been in the slightest danger of crashing.
Normally, I have no faith in anyone’s, even paid services supposedly-confidence-based unit-size recommendations…I hate going 5-3 on the day, and ending up way down because the big banger didn’t come in. So when I started following DJ’s posts and see him mixin’ in the odd 8% in with his 1, 2, 3, and 4%ers, I thought it was a recipe for disaster. In the previous thread, I learned that DJ has a clear valuation of his “good” filler low-bangers that help him bide his time till the juicy ones he’s really waiting for come along…and the big’uns have consistently been coming in with great enough frequency to justify their greatly-magnified stake. I’m impressed…and I now tail along, carefully obeying the wide range of bet-sizes…cuz for the first time I get the feel that they really haven’t been determined at random.
Anhow, just thot’ everybody should know that DJ’s documented betting has turned 1000 into over 5000…something that wan’t readily apparent.
DJ, you keep this thread running as usual, I’d just like to periodically notify everyone how the full run from a reference $1000 starting late Oct’2010 is going…and maybe, just maybe, if there’s enough interest in this, once the current target is hit you might even consider trying to top up the hypothetical account to the pure “10-fold appreciation” mark as well…but if you don’t, and you take a well deserved rest once you reach the thread’s stated goal…I must say, I really am appreciating the opportunity of tailing you…last night I was kicking myself for following you in an 8-banger on a team with more syllables in its name than I have eggs in the fridge…but when I checked the results…well, it’s why I decided a tribute to your efforts was in order.WAY TO GO, DJ!!!!!
Fitguy67
Announcement: Important Milestone has just been met by DJ_Destroyer (Reference Account has MORE-THAN-QUINTUPLED in just the last 238 days)
As you know when he started out on June 26 in his challenge with SuperEagle (who rather quickly departed) it was a race from 1,600 to 5000…and it was completed in an amazing 107 days on Oct 10 (and was almost completed about 6 weeks earlier than that in mid-August)…ending with 5,186.59…a huge 224.16% gain over starting capital.
Almost immediately he started this thread, with the stated goal of doubling that account. Rather than keeping it at 5,186.59…he decided to round down to 5,000 and as of yesterday’s close you can see above it’s grown already from that to it’s current 8,114.12…which works out to another great performance…logging 62.28% gain over the startup roll just another 121 days.
Anyhow, I decided to “splice” the two records together and see what would have become of, say, a nice round $1000 starting at day#1, June 26 before the first bet was placed…well by the end of the challenge completion it had become 3,241.62….and if that $3,241.62k had simply been rolled into this thread…as of yesterday it just hit $5,258.47…for a phenomenal 425.85% addition onto the starting thousand…and putting the account at 25% beyond QUINTUPLE…in just 238 days…so overall we’re looking at 1.79% gain over the starting capital EVERY DAY, 12.52% WEEKLY, 54.46% MONTHLY, and, get this…653.09% annually.
What’s truly amazing to me is that DJ’s has done all this without a good win%...the first phase was a passable 53.03% rate…but over this thread the rate is only 49.28%...but has still managed the super performance anyone tailing him appreciates. Despite putting on a huge number of bets, 1078 over the 238 day period with just a 51.13% hit rate… which would cause most accounts to erode terribly, DJ seems to guage his own confidence with amazing accuracy, and it’s the constistent success rate on the large-baggers, the 5%+ bets that account for the overall brilliant record, which has never been in the slightest danger of crashing.
Normally, I have no faith in anyone’s, even paid services supposedly-confidence-based unit-size recommendations…I hate going 5-3 on the day, and ending up way down because the big banger didn’t come in. So when I started following DJ’s posts and see him mixin’ in the odd 8% in with his 1, 2, 3, and 4%ers, I thought it was a recipe for disaster. In the previous thread, I learned that DJ has a clear valuation of his “good” filler low-bangers that help him bide his time till the juicy ones he’s really waiting for come along…and the big’uns have consistently been coming in with great enough frequency to justify their greatly-magnified stake. I’m impressed…and I now tail along, carefully obeying the wide range of bet-sizes…cuz for the first time I get the feel that they really haven’t been determined at random.
Anhow, just thot’ everybody should know that DJ’s documented betting has turned 1000 into over 5000…something that wan’t readily apparent.
DJ, you keep this thread running as usual, I’d just like to periodically notify everyone how the full run from a reference $1000 starting late Oct’2010 is going…and maybe, just maybe, if there’s enough interest in this, once the current target is hit you might even consider trying to top up the hypothetical account to the pure “10-fold appreciation” mark as well…but if you don’t, and you take a well deserved rest once you reach the thread’s stated goal…I must say, I really am appreciating the opportunity of tailing you…last night I was kicking myself for following you in an 8-banger on a team with more syllables in its name than I have eggs in the fridge…but when I checked the results…well, it’s why I decided a tribute to your efforts was in order.WAY TO GO, DJ!!!!!
Fitguy67
if at all possible on obscure intl offerings, could you put some sort of shorthand for the country/league if it's not the top one in that country (eg. It/B...would be good enough for Italy/SerieB...last night's big-banger "Eskieshirspor" just needed "Turk" and many brain cells would have been saved)...tennis is always a pain in the butt that way too...often many ATP/WTA tournaments at the same time and you have to "needle in a haystack" one surname
mega-appreciate it
if at all possible on obscure intl offerings, could you put some sort of shorthand for the country/league if it's not the top one in that country (eg. It/B...would be good enough for Italy/SerieB...last night's big-banger "Eskieshirspor" just needed "Turk" and many brain cells would have been saved)...tennis is always a pain in the butt that way too...often many ATP/WTA tournaments at the same time and you have to "needle in a haystack" one surname
mega-appreciate it
also earlier " I’m impressed…and I now tail along, carefully obeying the wide range of bet-sizes…cuz for the first time I get the feel that they really haven’t been determined at random."..you may replace "at random" with "as an exercise in self-delusion".
____________________
I'm glad it's all the nice "small footprint" bet sizes today...i can't take too many of those "white knuckle" 8-percenters...
also earlier " I’m impressed…and I now tail along, carefully obeying the wide range of bet-sizes…cuz for the first time I get the feel that they really haven’t been determined at random."..you may replace "at random" with "as an exercise in self-delusion".
____________________
I'm glad it's all the nice "small footprint" bet sizes today...i can't take too many of those "white knuckle" 8-percenters...
Crawley Town +2.5 [-105] 2% -162.28 to win 154.55
Lille 'pk' [-170] 2% -168.08 to win 98.87
Crawley Town +2.5 [-105] 2% -162.28 to win 154.55
Lille 'pk' [-170] 2% -168.08 to win 98.87
Lille 'pk' [-170] 2% -168.08 to win 98.87
Canadiens [+132] 2% -168.08 to win 221.87
Lille 'pk' [-170] 2% -168.08 to win 98.87
Canadiens [+132] 2% -168.08 to win 221.87
You clearly handicapped the game correctly, then to see a meltdown in the final couple minutes to spoil it.. been seeing a bunch of this myself lately. It blows..
You clearly handicapped the game correctly, then to see a meltdown in the final couple minutes to spoil it.. been seeing a bunch of this myself lately. It blows..
All equal my friend, mathematics knows no sports. I simply go based on value derived from my capping.
I have seen soccer and NCAA basketball emerge as my strongest sports overall but this can easily adjust back to the mean and shouldn't be considered trustworthy or anything of value.
I know this is an old post but it is really the Truth![]()
If I'm making a play (in any sport), I feel we have a mathematical edge that will produce value over the long run. Once you start capping through value, you stop caring about whether you win or lose because you simply maintain that you made a wise wager, and that's really all you can do.
People who try to pick winners everyday get caught up in juice or simply lose outright. We all know that we're 50/50 cappers so why try to avoid the losing side? It's a mathematical improbability...
So instead, why not take your 50% wins and get them to pay more than the equivalent price (+100)? That's the whole idea of value betting; if you're going to lose half of your wagers, you better make sure your wins count!
All equal my friend, mathematics knows no sports. I simply go based on value derived from my capping.
I have seen soccer and NCAA basketball emerge as my strongest sports overall but this can easily adjust back to the mean and shouldn't be considered trustworthy or anything of value.
I know this is an old post but it is really the Truth![]()
If I'm making a play (in any sport), I feel we have a mathematical edge that will produce value over the long run. Once you start capping through value, you stop caring about whether you win or lose because you simply maintain that you made a wise wager, and that's really all you can do.
People who try to pick winners everyday get caught up in juice or simply lose outright. We all know that we're 50/50 cappers so why try to avoid the losing side? It's a mathematical improbability...
So instead, why not take your 50% wins and get them to pay more than the equivalent price (+100)? That's the whole idea of value betting; if you're going to lose half of your wagers, you better make sure your wins count!
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