Destroy the Books! *Double your Bankroll*

Shakhtar Donetsk/Roma U2.5

Damn, I found this team listed as a U21 Ukrainian team, but  I just couldn't find the match-up.   Anyway, Hope you won, and looking forward to your next post.

These games start in 15 minutes and they are European Cup matches or UEFA Champions League matches.

Good luck DJD. I'm on the over; seems to be a public pick, so I like your under bet.

Red cards killed me...

Yes they did.  I was watching the Arsenal game; most stupid sending off ever and symptomatic of the modern game.

Player to be sent off in the Arsenal/Barcelona game was above +400. It's an interesting bet in these second legs when the team who's crashing out gets inevitably frustrated near game's end.

Paddington, i'd suggest you keep doing exactly what you're doing, just replace the ":%" sign you see in the posted plays with "star"/"unit"/"mcnugget"/"whatever u want to call it"...and define it in a way thay you feel comfortable with...for me it's much less than an actual %...dj here seems to be a dedicated, disciplined full-kelly "value hunter" and over the haul a reliable full-kelly "value getter"...but this game is a very bumpy (not a smooth) ride...especially if you play it by the full-kelly book, which is what dj seems to be doing as closely as I've actually seen anyone do it...

i'd suggest you feel free to "dilute" the kelly volatility (and, therefore the result) to match your "stomach" for the bumps...and enjoy the ride...i sure am
.

Wow, very level headed post, fitguy. I couldn't really have said it better myself.

I believe in my capping techniques and can honestly say that in the long run, we will be happy. What the "long run" actually is, I can't say (it could be weeks, it could be years), just stick to the plan and eventually we'll get there.

Plays up in a bit.

Wise counsel there.  I have been covering according to % but feel this is not for me.  Anything above 4% is taking me out of my comfort zone.  I saw a 15% play a few weeks back; that would be a sleepless night for sure.  And the losses, mainly on soccer recently, have been due to a few freak events, such as Italian teams actually scoring and conceding late goals.  Most unusual....

Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

Record: 300-315-53

Bankroll: $7539.91

Wagered: $134909.19

Returned: $137449.10

Net: +$2539.91

ROI: +1.88%

_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Jackets [+118] 1% -75.40 to win 88.97 

Capitals [+111] 1% -75.40 to win 83.69 

Stars [+162] 1% -75.40 to win 122.15 

Away Goals [+143] 1% -75.40 to win 107.82 

Shakhtar Donetsk/Roma U2.5 [-102] 2% -150.80 to win 147.84 

Arsenal +1.5 [+111] 1% -75.40 to win 83.69 

Record: 303-318-53

Bankroll: $7551.97

Wagered: $135436.99

Returned: $137988.96

Net: +$2551.97

ROI: +1.88%

_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Schalke/Valencia FH O1 [+118] 2% -151.04 to win 178.23

Tottenham/AC Milan FH U1 [-108] 1% -75.52 to win 69.93

Schalke [+167] 1% -75.52 to win 126.12

Flames [+115] 1% -75.52 to win 86.85

Lightning [-101] 1% -75.52 to win 74.77

Thrashers [+161] 1% -75.52 to win 121.59

Blues/Blue Jackets U5.5 [+103] 1% -75.52 to win 77.79

lots of nice (low mcnugget) bets for us today, Paddington...btw appreciated your swipe at Italian football...the freak event of goals ACTUALLY being scored

in any int'l tourney, u might like to know that I ACTUALLY have an "Italy Rule" that I've kept religiously since 2006 WC...as long as that particular team is alive in the tourney i refuse to watch ANY games (totally fucked up the 2006 WC, lol...but at least I didn't have to sit thru any of the pain)...that type of cynical weasel-like approach to the game tends to infect whole tournaments until its worst proponent is eliminated...

A shame cuz Italy has such great players...it's just that their "constipated" approach to the game that just eviscerates any joy/entertainment value.  When that league stays true to form, it's nice to bet on, but to a lover of the game, it's like "watching paint dry"...

the fact that some Italian teams have gone off form and played goal-creating footbal just when you started tailing DJ is another good example of murphy's law, in action tho'

Well put; a beautiful game and a beautiful country but like many showbiz couples they don't quite gel together.

Record: 309-319-53

Bankroll: $8133.94

Wagered: $136041.15

Returned: $139175.09

Net: +$3133.94

ROI: +2.30%

_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Braga 'pk' [+111] 2% -162.68 to win 180.57

Dynamo Kiev 'pk' [-121] 1% -81.34 to win 67.22

Bayer Leverkusen/Villareal O2.5 [+105] 1% -81.34 to win 85.41

Porto 'pk' [-107] 1%  -81.34 to win 76.02

Canadiens/Blues U5.5 [-128] 1% -81.34 to win 63.55

Nice day, congrats!

Like the call on Blues/Habs.  Halak will be very motivated tonight, and I don't know how much of Pacioretty's accident has been put to rest for the Habs.  I think they will try to play a low key road game.  Should be a very low scoring affair, in the 2-1 range.

$1,000 in 2 days and 11 out of 12 winners.  Hats off to you....

Great job!!!

Cittadella/Padova DRAW [+197] 1% -82.62 to win 162.76

Record: 315-325-54

Bankroll: $8264.57

Wagered: $137286.58

Returned: $140541.15

Net: +$3254.57

ROI: +2.37%

_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Taking an indefinite hiatus... going to rest the mojo and revamp myself for baseball. It will be a long season and I can't wait to start grinding. See you guys then.

Will miss your insights; have to find another way to feed the beast!

i love baseball and know a ton about it having played it myself in high school but ive never been too good at betting baseball...excited to see baseball picks and ill be along for the grind as well...BOL

Hey DJ,

I know your taking a break from this thread but sent you friend request so I could pm you a quick question. Add me if you get a second if you would. Thx.

whats up dj,

When you coming back to the thread?

Before April 18th...