Posted:
#576
High scoring first periods... 
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Destroy the Books! *Double your Bankroll*
Posted:
#578
It's a grind... I'm trying to figure out a way to minimize the downswings because it seems like they happen every time but I don't really care that much; as long as I reach 10k at some point, I'll be happy.
I'm excited to start my next thread, it's going to be the ultimate money maker.
I'm excited to start my next thread, it's going to be the ultimate money maker.
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Posted:
#580
I don't know when exactly but it will be shortly after this thread comes to a close... I feel like I finally understand the methodology behind sports investing; I just need to hone my capping techniques which the end of this thread will help with. This next thread will be much more professional, organized, specific, and hopefully successful.
If all goes well with this thread and that next thread, I'll be turning tout so get 'em free while you can.
Record going into the break:
Record: 182-184-23
Bankroll: $8300.01
Wagered: $79966.96
Returned: $83267.06
Net: +$3300.10
ROI: +4.13%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _
If all goes well with this thread and that next thread, I'll be turning tout so get 'em free while you can.
Record going into the break:
Record: 182-184-23
Bankroll: $8300.01
Wagered: $79966.96
Returned: $83267.06
Net: +$3300.10
ROI: +4.13%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _
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Posted:
#581
Sport by Sport Breakdown
By Net (Largest to Smallest)
Pro Soccer (79-64-21) 55.24%
Spent: $39073.13
Returned: $44518.85
Net: +$5445.72
ROI: +13.94%
Pro Hockey (68-60-0) 53.13%
Spent: $23936.70
Returned: $26384.84
Net: +$2448.14
ROI: +10.23%
College Football (6-2-0) 75.00%
Spent: $1184.47
Returned: $1625.78
Net: +$441.31
ROI: +37.26%
Pro Baseball (1-4-0) 20.00%
Spent: $868.37
Returned: $416.00
Net: -$452.37
ROI: -52.09%
College Basketball (5-10-1) 33.33%
Spent: $2598.96
Returned: $2017.82
Net: -$581.14
ROI: -22.36%
Pro Football (3-11-0) 21.43%
Spent: $2155.42
Returned: $489.72
Net: -$1665.70
ROI: -77.28%
Pro Basketball (20-33-1) 37.74%
Spent: $10149.91
Returned: $7814.05
Net: -$2335.86
ROI: -23.01%
Total (182-184-23) 49.73%
Spent: $79966.96
Returned: $83267.06
Net: +$3300.10
ROI: +4.13%
**This will be the last sport-by-sport breakdown**
**This will be the last sport-by-sport breakdown**
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Posted:
#584
I know how expensive buying picks can be. The cost creates a situation where making a profit becomes difficult. You often need to hit at a 57% clip to make anything, even more for the picks of the experts on this site.
You are doing very well, in my opinion. The occasional downswings are minimal, and your money management advice creates a solid environment for long term investing. I appreciate your hard work very much.
Enjoy your holidays, take stock of what is really important, and we will continue the journey after the holidays. Cheers!
You are doing very well, in my opinion. The occasional downswings are minimal, and your money management advice creates a solid environment for long term investing. I appreciate your hard work very much.
Enjoy your holidays, take stock of what is really important, and we will continue the journey after the holidays. Cheers!
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Posted:
#586
Believe me, I don't take the decision lightly. I've never been a fan of touts but my goal is to actually change the industry... I'm tired of locks, game of the years, shifty marketing, lying, deceit, etc. In my opinion, there are very little ways to truly turn a profit in this industry but my method is one of them. This thread is still a learning process but I'm finally getting a grip on things... the next thread will be my final test and if I pass, I will have proven that I'm a legitimate and consistent capper to not only myself, but to all you guys.
Most of you guys shouldn't even need to pay for my services as I have clearly demonstrated the basics here for everyone to see (kreatture's thread is a shining example
). Plug in some decent picks and you can do it yourself!
But for people who can't find the time or just don't have the KSA (knowledge, skills, abilities), then they can pay a small fee and in return, will receive much more than you guys do now. By that, I mean I will have email/text services that send out the picks in real time so you don't have to come check my site AND I'll be done with school so I can put all my resources into capping, which I think will help ten-fold.
For any non-believers, I think my next thread will put an end to your doubts if these last two haven't.
Happy Holidays everyone! See you in the new year!
Most of you guys shouldn't even need to pay for my services as I have clearly demonstrated the basics here for everyone to see (kreatture's thread is a shining example
). Plug in some decent picks and you can do it yourself! But for people who can't find the time or just don't have the KSA (knowledge, skills, abilities), then they can pay a small fee and in return, will receive much more than you guys do now. By that, I mean I will have email/text services that send out the picks in real time so you don't have to come check my site AND I'll be done with school so I can put all my resources into capping, which I think will help ten-fold.
For any non-believers, I think my next thread will put an end to your doubts if these last two haven't.
Happy Holidays everyone! See you in the new year!
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Posted:
#587
wait what ? ..you were serious about going tout..add another to the list of delusional posters here..dude, change the industry ? your only up about 15 units in 2.5 months in this thread..and down in the other. You come into everyones threads with a holier than thou attitude, acting like you know it all... 15 units in 2.5 months ?...shit, my CFL chase made 49 units in 3 months in a league with only 4 games a week !...my odds chase has almost doubled in 15 days..somethin you havent done in almost 3 months...but I know, chases dont work, i know..real cappers dont chase..
..the mighty DJ says so ..l
..going tout..changing the industry.. i cant keep quiet anymore..pure delusional..get over yourself..merry christmas.
..the mighty DJ says so ..l..going tout..changing the industry.. i cant keep quiet anymore..pure delusional..get over yourself..merry christmas.
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Posted:
#588
Neilsy, a bit harsh for a Christmas post. If DJ thinks he can go pro, let him go. The beauty of the free market economy. If his service has value, people will pay. If not, it will wither.
I have followed the debate between you two on your NHL Final Score thread. I understand both points of view, but I think they need to be put to the side right now. In the end, you are both trying to get to the same place, and trying to help others make a few bucks along the way.
God bless us all!
I have followed the debate between you two on your NHL Final Score thread. I understand both points of view, but I think they need to be put to the side right now. In the end, you are both trying to get to the same place, and trying to help others make a few bucks along the way.
God bless us all!
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Posted:
#589
Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:
wait what ? ..you were serious about going tout..add another to the list of delusional posters here..dude, change the industry ? your only up about 15 units in 2.5 months in this thread..and down in the other. You come into everyones threads with a holier than thou attitude, acting like you know it all... 15 units in 2.5 months ?...shit, my CFL chase made 49 units in 3 months in a league with only 4 games a week !...my odds chase has almost doubled in 15 days..somethin you havent done in almost 3 months...but I know, chases dont work, i know..real cappers dont chase.. ..the mighty DJ says so ..l..going tout..changing the industry.. i cant keep quiet anymore..pure delusional..get over yourself..merry christmas.
wait what ? ..you were serious about going tout..add another to the list of delusional posters here..dude, change the industry ? your only up about 15 units in 2.5 months in this thread..and down in the other. You come into everyones threads with a holier than thou attitude, acting like you know it all... 15 units in 2.5 months ?...shit, my CFL chase made 49 units in 3 months in a league with only 4 games a week !...my odds chase has almost doubled in 15 days..somethin you havent done in almost 3 months...but I know, chases dont work, i know..real cappers dont chase..
..the mighty DJ says so ..l..going tout..changing the industry.. i cant keep quiet anymore..pure delusional..get over yourself..merry christmas. You're the one who doesn't understand simple mathematic principles; when you do, then we can have a debate.
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Posted:
#591
You drunk again neilsy? I know that's a problem of yours.
Every other serious investor knows what I know about math (and even average people with half a brain know) so it seems like you're the only one on the outside. You seriously don't even know what you're talking about which makes it hard to debate; I'm literally replying to nonsense. You could win for the rest of your life chasing but that doesn't change the fatal odds, it just means you got extremely lucky. I, on the other hand, resort to probabilities, positive expected value, expected growth, etc. so I can always chalk up my profits to KSA.
Seriously, go ask any mathematician how stupid it is to do what you're doing... O wait, you even admit yourself that you generally agree that martingale chases are destined to lose (in this thread).
This isn't me versus you, neilsy. It's the whole foundation of math that has been worked on and proven over thousands of years versus you...
Every other serious investor knows what I know about math (and even average people with half a brain know) so it seems like you're the only one on the outside. You seriously don't even know what you're talking about which makes it hard to debate; I'm literally replying to nonsense. You could win for the rest of your life chasing but that doesn't change the fatal odds, it just means you got extremely lucky. I, on the other hand, resort to probabilities, positive expected value, expected growth, etc. so I can always chalk up my profits to KSA.
Seriously, go ask any mathematician how stupid it is to do what you're doing... O wait, you even admit yourself that you generally agree that martingale chases are destined to lose (in this thread).
This isn't me versus you, neilsy. It's the whole foundation of math that has been worked on and proven over thousands of years versus you...
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Posted:
#592
...just tell me where i can sign up to pay for your service.. wanna get me those 15 units by spring..lol..another personal attack ..drinking a problem of mine ?..LOL..you remind me of those yappy little know it all nerds that i never could stand. you keep talking..and i will keep winning.K ?
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Posted:
#593
since you didnt respond to me in my thread when i proved you wrong about how my chase was completely different than supereagles maybe explain to me here.. maybe you are just not smart enough to see everyhting is not black and white..chasing to the end with your whole roll is of course bad ..what i am doing is not that..so get your head out of your pompous ass and actually think about it ..
Hey DJ, thats only half of it, the second part and what i think makes this totally different then what Supereagle was doing is that ..that a new "set" of 4 chases does not begin, until all 4 have completed. They complete by either losing 3 in a row, or by winning 19 in a row, doubling the initial chase investment. Therefore each SET of chases has the following possible outcome
1 - ALL 4 win (i,e get to 19 wins without a loss) = $400 profit
2- 3 Chases win , and 1 busts = $200 Profit
3 - 2 chases win and 2 bust = 0 profit
4- 1 chase wins and 3 lose = Loss of $200
5- all 4 chases bust = Loss of $400
so as you see the extremes (all 4 win ..aqll 4 lose) exactly make up for each other. Given the odds in my first post from the streak calculator the expectation should be on average scenario 2 happening, a $200 profit.
If above is done with a 4k bankroll.each individual set would represent 10% of your roll with each individual chase representing 2.5% . ..
so please genius..explain to me what you all know..how this is not mathematically sound ..or i guess..you could just call me more names instead..
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Posted:
#594
Before I say anything, I am a nerd. I'm a sports nerd and I am certainly not ashamed of it!
That being said, I'll take 15 units by spring in lieu of 15 abandoned systems any time, any day, anywhere!
And since we're on personal attacks, you remind me of those degenerate old farts who think they know sports and simply hit the bottle when they lose to forget their shortcomings in life. I still have a life ahead of me, and yes, I have goals. You can try to shoot them down all you want but I'm going to triumph like I always do. Get lost!
That being said, I'll take 15 units by spring in lieu of 15 abandoned systems any time, any day, anywhere!
And since we're on personal attacks, you remind me of those degenerate old farts who think they know sports and simply hit the bottle when they lose to forget their shortcomings in life. I still have a life ahead of me, and yes, I have goals. You can try to shoot them down all you want but I'm going to triumph like I always do. Get lost!
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Posted:
#596
I didn't reply because I was trying to be the bigger man and leave you alone but we are well past that now, so in short, the probability of winning all four series is worst than the probability of losing all four. Let me explain:
Losing all four series
The probability of losing an individual three-game series equals q^n where q is the probability of losing the single event and n is the number of events in the series. So .3125^3=0.0305 Therefore you have 3.05% that you will bust chasing strictly for three games.
The probability of losing after each subsequent event equals (1-the probability of losing the single event)*the probability of losing an individual series. So (1-.3125)*.0305=0.02096875
Therefore the probability of losing an individual three-game series after 19 single events equals the probability of not busting a three-game series*(1-the number we got in step two)^16. So .9695*(1-0.02096875)^16=0.69070513 Therefore you have a 69.07% of losing a series.
The probability of losing all four series equals the probability of losing an individual series^of total series. So 0.69070513^4=0.22759920 Therefore you have a 22.76% chance of losing all four series.
Winning all four series
The probability of winning an individual series equals the probability of winning the single event^of the total number of events to win a series. So .9695^19=0.55147585 Therefore you have a 55.15% chance of winning an individual series.
The probability of winning all four series equals the probability of winning an individual series^of total series. So 0.55147585^4=0.09249239 Therefore you have a 9.25% chance of winning all four series.
So although the two scenarios may payout the same, they don't have equal probabilities.
**Now I just did a boatload of math to help you out and so I'm done arguing this mute point. If you don't adhere to global mathematic principles then that is your choice. I can't beat a dead horse.**
Losing all four series
The probability of losing an individual three-game series equals q^n where q is the probability of losing the single event and n is the number of events in the series. So .3125^3=0.0305 Therefore you have 3.05% that you will bust chasing strictly for three games.
The probability of losing after each subsequent event equals (1-the probability of losing the single event)*the probability of losing an individual series. So (1-.3125)*.0305=0.02096875
Therefore the probability of losing an individual three-game series after 19 single events equals the probability of not busting a three-game series*(1-the number we got in step two)^16. So .9695*(1-0.02096875)^16=0.69070513 Therefore you have a 69.07% of losing a series.
The probability of losing all four series equals the probability of losing an individual series^of total series. So 0.69070513^4=0.22759920 Therefore you have a 22.76% chance of losing all four series.
Winning all four series
The probability of winning an individual series equals the probability of winning the single event^of the total number of events to win a series. So .9695^19=0.55147585 Therefore you have a 55.15% chance of winning an individual series.
The probability of winning all four series equals the probability of winning an individual series^of total series. So 0.55147585^4=0.09249239 Therefore you have a 9.25% chance of winning all four series.
So although the two scenarios may payout the same, they don't have equal probabilities.
**Now I just did a boatload of math to help you out and so I'm done arguing this mute point. If you don't adhere to global mathematic principles then that is your choice. I can't beat a dead horse.**
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Posted:
#597
For anyone who wants to know how or why I did my calculations, check HERE. It's a very heavy read but it's well worth it. It has a whole section on Martingale/chasing though the online version is likely not in it's entirety so you may need to go out and buy it! I did and I think it's one of the better investments I've made.
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Posted:
#598
i guess that would be true.. if each series were related..but their not..completey independant events..no more than you can calculate the probability of a subsequnet coin flip ..according to your math.. i would have a better chance of flipping heads 4 times then tails... WRONG ..sounded good though..nice try..gl, .i'm done.
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Posted:
#599
All my math was for independent events so you're wrong. Besides, what you are claiming is still debunked in post #596 with these claims:
Therefore you have a 69.07% chance of losing an individual series
Therefore you have a 55.15% chance of winning an individual series
These two claims are both supported by the calculations in #596.
Therefore you have a 69.07% chance of losing an individual series
Therefore you have a 55.15% chance of winning an individual series
These two claims are both supported by the calculations in #596.
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Posted:
#600
doesnt look to me like you took into account that i am playing NHL ODDS ..something that wins at a 76% clip ..that would change the math no ? .. i mean you say i have a 69.07% chance of losing a series.. according to this https://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/streak-calculator.aspx i have only a 17% chance..guess your wrong again ..oh well..back to the books eh kid.?..keep telling me what I dont know.
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