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Destroy the Books! *Double your Bankroll*

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Posted: #626
Correct. 




(love you too)
 
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Posted: #627
Record: 185-185-23
Bankroll: $8666.39
Wagered: $80879.96
Returned: $84546.35
Net: +$3666.39
ROI: +4.53%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Hurricanes [+107] 3% -259.99 to win 278.19
Stars [+121] 3% -259.99 to win 314.59
Lightning [-119] 2% -173.32 to win 145.65

Tottenham -1 [+101] 4% -346.66 to win 350.13
 
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Posted: #628
DJ, I will ask the same question I asked Kreatture. 

What do you think of Sweden -.5  (+115) against Russia?  I found Russia worked hard against Canada, but came up lucky a couple of times. I think the line is an indication of them not getting blown out by Canada, but I have a feeling Sweden will put them away early.

Any thoughts, wisdom, advice? 
 
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Posted: #629
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:


Hurricanes [+107] 3% -259.99 to win 278.19
Stars [+121] 3% -259.99 to win 314.59
Lightning [-119] 2% -173.32 to win 145.65

Tottenham -1 [+101] 4% -346.66 to win 350.13

DJ I have a question, How come the Hurricanes and Stars picks at + odds are 3% plays and the Lightning at - odds are only a 2% play?  Just curious how you come up with the % for each game.  I know it's something to do with the Kelly system but don't thoroughly understand it.

Still learning and any help is appreciated.

 
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Posted: #630
@mick - It's a no play for me... I'll only make World Junior plays if there's something I really like.

@oilcountry - The wager amounts are based on the perceived edge in relation to expected value and expected growth. You can find the formula online but I don't use exact Kelly, something I'll be doing in my next thread.
 
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Posted: #631

DJ,i read the info on expected value and expected growth, maybe i need to review it again a and look into perceived edge, that's the part i don't really get, in reality isn't every game 50-50?

 
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Posted: #632
More like 48/48 because of the vig... but I trust my capping to create edges. Don't have the time to get into it now though sorry.
 
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Posted: #633
no worries, just do what you do!
 
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Posted: #634
Very nice day, DJ.  Congrats!
 
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Posted: #635
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

Record: 185-185-23
Bankroll: $8666.39
Wagered: $80879.96
Returned: $84546.35
Net: +$3666.39
ROI: +4.53%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Hurricanes [+107] 3% -259.99 to win 278.19 
Stars [+121] 3% -259.99 to win 314.59 
Lightning [-119] 2% -173.32 to win 145.65 

Tottenham -1 [+101] 4% -346.66 to win 350.13 


Record: 188-186-23
Bankroll: $9435.98
Wagered: $81919.92
Returned: $86355.90
Net: +$4435.98
ROI: +5.42%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Kortrijk 'pk' [+243] 2% -188.72 to win 458.59
Germinal Beerschot/Eupen U2.5 [-117] 2% -188.72 to win 161.30
Westerlo 'pk' [-126] 2% -188.72 to win 149.78
 
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Posted: #636
Thanks, DJ.
 
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Posted: #637

Just remember that this forum is for systems and explaining how your system works. If you are just posting picks please post them in the appropriate sports forum.
Thanks

 

Oh by the way GTFO!!!!

 
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Posted: #638

A sweep today and you're finished this one!

GL 

 
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Posted: #639
Don't normally add plays but the Canes/Sens game wasn't up last night and the reason I didn't take the Rangers last night is because I can't see Lamaire losing three in a row, but god that organization is in shambles even if Lemaire has had time to implement his style. So upon further analysis, I just can't see a turnaround coming against rivals NYR who are not only good on the road, but also undertsand they'll want to pick up this win close to home as they have a B2B to finish off their road trip. The Devils will have less than 5k fans in attendance (1k cheering for the Rangers) and I just don't see them picking up the first win for Lemaire at home where there is literally no motivation. Add in that Lamoriello had to send down a good character guy in Brian Rolston just to cut his salary and I just don't see the Devils getting up for this game at all.

Hurricanes/Sens U5.5 [-120] 3% -283.08 to win 235.90
Rangers [-123] 2% -188.72 to win 153.43
 
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Posted: #640

I circled both these games this morning, as well. I've been going over them, and altho I have no opinion on the Total, I love the Sens tonight. However, the price stinks and I'm hoping Carolina money will come in later when the public clues in that Spezza is out. Otherwise it probably won't make my card.

I was leaning Devils earlier, too, and I came to the exact same conclusion. Jersey motivation should be there tonight but I don't know if that's enough either. Rangers have been on a roll and there's really no good reason to go against them tonight. But I don't like the price with them either.

Good Luck tonight, hope the soccer went well, haven't checked. 

 
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Posted: #641
DJ, I put $500 into my Pinny account on December 10, with the express intent of tailing you.  My account is now at $700, and that is on top of $100 lost on that Dallas shite fest against Washington.  Only other plays in the account are a few by kreatture where I need to play regulation time or 1st period hockey.

I like the way I am wagering now.  Nothing feels out of control; I never feel like I am taking unnecessary risk or am overexposing myself.  As a bonus, I am watching my bankroll grow.

I am indebted to you and kreatture.  Thank you.
 
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Posted: #642

Quote Originally Posted by mickjam:

DJ, I put $500 into my Pinny account on December 10, with the express intent of tailing you.  My account is now at $700, and that is on top of $100 lost on that Dallas shite fest against Washington.  Only other plays in the account are a few by kreatture where I need to play regulation time or 1st period hockey.

I like the way I am wagering now.  Nothing feels out of control; I never feel like I am taking unnecessary risk or am overexposing myself.  As a bonus, I am watching my bankroll grow.

I am indebted to you and kreatture.  Thank you.

sadly i must concur..combine Pittsburghs s/o loss tonite on my chase..with Kreattures situational analysis of the Van/Philly game last night, and yes, I said it, DJs continued success.. and i think , like the movie, the nerds win again ...gl.

 
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Posted: #643
Thing i like about Dj is you don't give up easy bro.I remember when things wasn't going good for you but you stick to your plan and look where you are now......The strategy and money management you use ...Props to kreatture too...Keep it up..
 
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Posted: #644
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:



Record: 188-186-23
Bankroll: $9435.98
Wagered: $81919.92
Returned: $86355.90
Net: +$4435.98
ROI: +5.42%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Kortrijk 'pk' [+243] 2% -188.72 to win 458.59 
Germinal Beerschot/Eupen U2.5 [-117] 2% -188.72 to win 161.30 
Westerlo 'pk' [-126] 2% -188.72 to win 149.78 
Hurricanes/Sens U5.5 [-120] 3% -283.08 to win 235.90 
Rangers [-123] 2% -188.72 to win 153.43 


Record: 191-188-23
Bankroll: $9609.17
Wagered: $82957.88
Returned: $87567.05
Net: +$4609.17
ROI: +5.56%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Flyers/Kings U5.5 [-117] 3% -288.28 to win 246.39
Bruins [-104] 2% -192.18 to win 184.79
Sharks [+128] 2% -192.18 to win 245.99

Lokeren/Genk O2.5 [-125] 3% -288.28 to win 230.62
Gent 'pk' [-160] 3% -288.28 to win 180.17
 
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Posted: #645
I actually got the Bruins at +104 (not -104)... -192.18 to win 199.87.
 
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Posted: #646
Well done DJ. Kicking some ass.......
 
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Posted: #647
I hate 90' minute goals.

At least the Gent 'pk' pushes so it doesn't cost but I would have liked to win the first bet of the day.


 
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Posted: #648
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:



Record: 191-188-23
Bankroll: $9609.17
Wagered: $82957.88
Returned: $87567.05
Net: +$4609.17
ROI: +5.56%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Flyers/Kings U5.5 [-117] 3% -288.28 to win 246.39 
Bruins [-104] 2% -192.18 to win 184.79 
Sharks [+128] 2% -192.18 to win 245.99 

Lokeren/Genk O2.5 [-125] 3% -288.28 to win 230.62 
Gent 'pk' [-160] 3% -288.28 to win 180.17 PUSH


Record: 193-190-24
Bankroll: $9605.32
Wagered: $84207.08
Returned: $88812.40
Net: +$4605.32
ROI: +5.47%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Senators [+105] 3% -288.16 to win 302.57
Coyotes [+131] 2% -192.11 to win 251.66
Flames [-113] 2% -192.11 to win 170.01
Stars [+116] 2% -192.11 to win 222.85
 
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Posted: #649
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:



Record: 193-190-24
Bankroll: $9605.32
Wagered: $84207.08
Returned: $88812.40
Net: +$4605.32
ROI: +5.47%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Senators [+105] 3% -288.16 to win 302.57 
Coyotes [+131] 2% -192.11 to win 251.66 
Flames [-113] 2% -192.11 to win 170.01 
Stars [+116] 2% -192.11 to win 222.85 


Record: 194-193-24
Bankroll: $9102.95
Wagered: $85071.57
Returned: $89174.52
Net: +$4102.95
ROI: +4.82%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Oilers [-101] -182.06 to win 180.26
Rangers [+115] -182.06 to win 209.37
Bruins [-104] -182.06 to win 175.06
 
 
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Posted: #650
Not sure what the percentages are, DJ.  Can you help?
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