Posted:
#76
Just caught this thread, nice work sdiinc
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Critique My Method
Posted:
#78
Hey guys. Have a hard time to lay any money down on the Pirates today but i´ll take the other two. Have to follow my instincts and we´ll see tomorrow how much they are worth
Sdiinc;
Since you usually don´t have this many picks i took the liberty of choosing what to play this time. Hope you don´t mind...
Sdiinc;
Since you usually don´t have this many picks i took the liberty of choosing what to play this time. Hope you don´t mind...
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Posted:
#81
sdiinc-
I'm trying to work thru your formula and am wondering where you come up with the ERA (road pitcher) and ERA (home pitcher). I can obviously find the ERA's for the starting pitchers easy enough, but I can't find a site that has the total ERA's for each game started by each pitcher (including bullpen). Any help is appreciated. Thanks in advance.
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Posted:
#85
I've been getting some emails from y'all and I'll do my best to keep up but remember I'm not full time at this yet, I still have to manage stocks during the week and I've got a wife and housefull of kids so sometimes I'm behind on responding.
Several of you have asked about how I handle it when I have a loss and then the next day have more than one pick. In reality, I've never played more than one a day, because it's central to my risk management method.
I describe above how I manage my money, but very simply, if I lose a game, the next play I will bet only enough to break even. The reason for this is to eliminate the effect of losses on my bankroll without getting into the high risk progressive approach.
In other words, I think that traditional progressive approach is far too risky and essentially based in greed. I simply want to offset the losses and accept my profits. In four months of betting daily this has worked very well for me, averaging about 12 units' gain per month on once a day bets. 12 units' gain on an average of 25 bets a month seems pretty good to me.
Back to the question at hand. I have posted multiple plays recently simply because I know some of you like more information (and just can't bring yourselves to accept something so simple and profitable as my formula!). However, I don't usually play multiple games. So, if you had a loss on day one, and on day two I post multiple games, you should play the game with the highest confidence, and bet an amount that, based on the ML for that game, will bring you back to even.
I hope this makes sense.
Several of you have asked about how I handle it when I have a loss and then the next day have more than one pick. In reality, I've never played more than one a day, because it's central to my risk management method.
I describe above how I manage my money, but very simply, if I lose a game, the next play I will bet only enough to break even. The reason for this is to eliminate the effect of losses on my bankroll without getting into the high risk progressive approach.
In other words, I think that traditional progressive approach is far too risky and essentially based in greed. I simply want to offset the losses and accept my profits. In four months of betting daily this has worked very well for me, averaging about 12 units' gain per month on once a day bets. 12 units' gain on an average of 25 bets a month seems pretty good to me.
Back to the question at hand. I have posted multiple plays recently simply because I know some of you like more information (and just can't bring yourselves to accept something so simple and profitable as my formula!). However, I don't usually play multiple games. So, if you had a loss on day one, and on day two I post multiple games, you should play the game with the highest confidence, and bet an amount that, based on the ML for that game, will bring you back to even.
I hope this makes sense.
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Posted:
#86
Quote Originally Posted by dharbour:
Did you pick Houston because it was even? Although CWS seems to match up perfectly can you give me some guidance on this.
I have CIN at -.97 on formula 1 and 0 on formula 2.
I have CWS at 0 on formula 1 and +1.05 on formula 2.
I have PHI at .21 on formula 1 and -.11 on formula 2. Although technically this is not a perfect match for me, it is statistically even and with a ML of 200 is an extremely attractive value.
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Posted:
#88
I don't know what I'm doing wrong, but my numbers aren't anywhere close to yours. I did have Hou and CWS, but also had KC and Sea. Yesterday I went with your picks, but had Hou and CWS rated higher( and I won with them). My numbers for today are
Cin .18 on formula 1 and -.67 on formula 2
CWS 1.06 on formula 1 and .03 on formula 2
Phi 1.21 on formula 1 and .47 on formula 2
I'm using Covers stats from matchup page on each game and the formula (home rpg+road era)/2 - (road rpg + home era)/2 for formula 1.
Formula 2 is ( home rpg+road pitcher era)/2 - (road rpg+ home pitcher era)/2, with pitchers individual stats being for every game started, not just home/away situation. Any idea where I'm going wrong? Thanks for everything man...we do appreciate you posting and sharing your knowledge.
Cin .18 on formula 1 and -.67 on formula 2
CWS 1.06 on formula 1 and .03 on formula 2
Phi 1.21 on formula 1 and .47 on formula 2
I'm using Covers stats from matchup page on each game and the formula (home rpg+road era)/2 - (road rpg + home era)/2 for formula 1.
Formula 2 is ( home rpg+road pitcher era)/2 - (road rpg+ home pitcher era)/2, with pitchers individual stats being for every game started, not just home/away situation. Any idea where I'm going wrong? Thanks for everything man...we do appreciate you posting and sharing your knowledge.
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Posted:
#92
if you have multiple games the next day how do you decide which one is the best pick?
Is it based on the numbers calculated in the formula?
the way i see it, systems are supposed to take away the human emotions/bias in picking winners. otherwise, i am really just capping the game on my own.....no?
Is it based on the numbers calculated in the formula?
the way i see it, systems are supposed to take away the human emotions/bias in picking winners. otherwise, i am really just capping the game on my own.....no?
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Posted:
#93
Quote Originally Posted by ethancraft50:
if you have multiple games the next day how do you decide which one is the best pick?
Is it based on the numbers calculated in the formula?
the way i see it, systems are supposed to take away the human emotions/bias in picking winners. otherwise, i am really just capping the game on my own.....no?
if you have multiple games the next day how do you decide which one is the best pick?
Is it based on the numbers calculated in the formula?
the way i see it, systems are supposed to take away the human emotions/bias in picking winners. otherwise, i am really just capping the game on my own.....no?
Please see the post at 8/9/2008 4:34:24 PM
Guys, I'm going to stop posting multiple games. It's raising too many questions and is obviously too complex. The formula I have has worked fabulously making one play per day, so that's what I'll continue to post. I take it everyone enjoyed FLA today?
If you're not happy with that, I'll refund your money. Oh, wait...
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Posted:
#94
I can assure you that we enjoyed FLA and all the other plays you posted. You have a lot of thankful people reading this post even though it can sound like we´re a little ungrateful now and then.
I think the reason is that some of us are worried that you´re going to stop posting your plays before we figure out the formula since it really seems to work.
So please bear with us while we try to get the hang of it
I think the reason is that some of us are worried that you´re going to stop posting your plays before we figure out the formula since it really seems to work.
So please bear with us while we try to get the hang of it
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