Critique My Method

Hey guys, lucky day today, we have several plays.  It's rare I have more than one play a day, but since I've got three good ones, I'll list them in order of my preference:

1.  PITT over PHI @ 175
2.  CLE over TOR @ 125
3.  FLA over NYM @ 125

Hey guys. Have a hard time to lay any money down on the Pirates today but i´ll take the other two. Have to follow my instincts and we´ll see tomorrow how much they are worth

Sdiinc;
Since you usually don´t have this many picks i took the liberty of  choosing what to play this time. Hope you don´t mind...

Thats what his posts are for. A starting point with his insight, we can take it from there. He is doing great!

Like the immortal Meatloaf said "2 out of 3 ain't bad", especially when a big dog wins!! congrats on another successful day!

Ha ha, i should have guessed that bucs would win after my comment yesterday. This time it backfired so the laughs are on me

Good work sdiinc and good luck today!

Hi everyone, today I've got another three picks.  I'll show in order of my confidence:

1.  HOU over CIN @ 125
2.  CWS over BOS @ 140
3.  PIT over PHI @ 210

I've been getting some emails from y'all and I'll do my best to keep up but remember I'm not full time at this yet, I still have to manage stocks during the week and I've got a wife and housefull of kids so sometimes I'm behind on responding.

Several of you have asked about how I handle it when I have a loss and then the next day have more than one pick.  In reality, I've never played more than one a day, because it's central to my risk management method.

I describe above how I manage my money, but very simply, if I lose a game, the next play I will bet only enough to break even.  The reason for this is to eliminate the effect of losses on my bankroll without getting into the high risk progressive approach. 

In other words, I think that traditional progressive approach is far too risky and essentially based in greed.  I simply want to offset the losses and accept my profits.  In four months of betting daily this has worked very well for me, averaging about 12 units' gain per month on once a day bets. 12 units' gain on an average of 25 bets a month seems pretty good to me.

Back to the question at hand.  I have posted multiple plays recently simply because I know some of you like more information (and just can't bring yourselves to accept something so simple and profitable as my formula!).  However, I don't usually play multiple games.  So, if you had a loss on day one, and on day two I post multiple games, you should play the game with the highest confidence, and bet an amount that, based on the ML for that game, will bring you back to even.

I hope this makes sense.

I have CIN at -.97 on formula 1 and 0 on formula 2.

I have CWS at 0 on formula 1 and +1.05 on formula 2.

I have PHI at .21 on formula 1 and -.11 on formula 2.  Although technically this is not a perfect match for me, it is statistically even and with a ML of 200 is an extremely attractive value.

I don't know what I'm doing wrong, but my numbers aren't anywhere close to yours. I did have Hou and CWS, but also had KC and Sea. Yesterday I went with your picks, but had Hou and CWS rated higher( and I won with them). My numbers for today are

Cin    .18 on formula 1 and -.67 on formula 2

CWS  1.06 on formula 1 and .03 on formula 2

Phi   1.21 on formula 1 and .47 on formula 2

I'm using Covers stats from matchup page on each game and the formula   (home rpg+road era)/2 - (road rpg + home era)/2  for formula 1.

Formula 2 is ( home rpg+road pitcher era)/2 - (road rpg+ home pitcher era)/2, with pitchers individual stats being for every game started, not just home/away situation.  Any idea where I'm going wrong?  Thanks for everything man...we do appreciate you posting and sharing your knowledge.

I havent been getting the same outcomes as well. I have double and triple checked the formulas but still same outcomes. Thanks for the plays!

I'm going with FLA over NYM @ 145 today.

Two other games that look good:

COL over SDO @ 111

and

HOU over CIN @ 120

if you have multiple games the next day how do you decide which one is the best pick?
Is it based on the numbers calculated in the formula?
the way i see it, systems are supposed to take away the human emotions/bias in picking winners.  otherwise, i am really just capping the game on my own.....no?

Please see the post at  8/9/2008 4:34:24 PM

Guys, I'm going to stop posting multiple games.  It's raising too many questions and is obviously too complex.  The formula I have has worked fabulously making one play per day, so that's what I'll continue to post.  I take it everyone enjoyed FLA today?

If you're not happy with that, I'll refund your money.  Oh, wait...

I can assure you that we enjoyed FLA and all the other plays you posted. You have a lot of thankful people reading this post even though it can sound like we´re a little ungrateful now and then.
I think the reason is that some of us are worried that you´re going to stop posting your plays before we figure out the formula since it really seems to work.

So please bear with us while we try to get the hang of it

CWS over BOS @ 120

Thanks for the pick and good luck tonight!

Today I am going with ATL over CUB @ 150. 

Because I lost yesterday, today I will bet .65 units.

ATL looking good today - despite line mvmnt in other direction.

Good luck guys! Nice line on ATL...