Critique My Method

2. Since you are using ERA, this does not account for unearned runs. I was wondering if some of your losses come from teams who give up a lot of unearned runs. If so you could factor average earned runs per game into your formula. It would be a simple addition and would not require you to add another formula.

Yes, I think I will move to this and away from ERA.  I'm not backtesting anything at the moment as I'm busy working on my NHL and NFL formulas to improve upon last year.

How can i find UERA (unearned run average) that you are talking about above? I haven´t been able to find it but i guess you could calculate it but how would i do that?
Feels like it would be more accurate than ERA for the formula.

BAL over TAM @ 144

does it matter. I mean not to be an ass but sdiinc is 1-9 over the last 10 games, and has lost 6 in a row. and there is much debate as to whether or not he is even using valid data.

are you really shadowing him?

no offense mark and I do hope you get out of this slump soon.

but using mostly your system with this years data... and an occasional hunch of my own I have been very successful.

I have a 61.11%  win pct
and my acct has increased 39.91%
all since 9-10-08

congrats openbahr, on your recent success!

yes, he may be 1-9 this month.....but he only needs one more win to break even for the month. Plus, all his losses this month probably isn't even worth 10 units yet.

I think its safe to say that after the next win, he's gonna stop the system.  There may be too little games left to chase.

Also, i don't know how well your picks have been when you are using numbers for a new pitcher with very little starts.  I think the stats on younger pitchers starting out should be voided.

Still interested if you have a play for today sdiinc. I haven´t put in a bet on all of your previous ones (i currently have four losses in a row) but still would like to see what you came up with for today.

I will probably call it quits for the season and pick it up from where i left it when the NBA season is in full swing. It´s been really interesting to use your formula and i now i will use it again when april comes. I know it works with updated stats and i like money so why wouldn´t i use it?

If you like to share your work with the other sports most of us will be here listening to what you have to say. The hecklers will go on and try something else that they think works better but they will find that this is the closest to are sure thing that they will ever find.

A big thanks and hopefully you will continue to write in this thread.

Peter

I am not being a heckler I am just stating some facts.

this is all in the interest of this thread and I would love to see mark succeed.

my point is that he lost 6 , now 7, games in a row. ( he did'nt specify which bal game of the double header he liked but they lost both anyway) so now its 7 in a row and hes 1-10 since sep 12ish.

he stated in an earlier post that his unit size was $500
using his method he is now down...

 $-32,000
now I dont know what kinda bankroll he's got but thats a pretty big chunk of change.

and since he would have to bet $32.000 tonight and risk going down $64,000 I would'nt expect a pick tonight.

sorry. but we tried repeatedly to warn him that the data he was using was bad. and he didnt want to hear it.

ps. I lost with oak last night my win pct is now 57.89%, and my acct is up 36.57%

openbahr just don't post in this forum anymore you obviously have no clue what you are talking about and if your system is working for you good. Just leave don't read anymore and don't post better for all of us. I think I speak for all of us.

guys, I am sorry if I am pissing people off.

I like sdiinc, and I thought the purpose of this forum was to discuss his  method and tweak it for the benefit of all.

I dont have an agenda or anything like that in fact I have had success lately but its not due to any one system.

You say I have no clue what im talkin about.. am I getting something wrong?  seriously.

would'nt he be down 32k right now?  maybe i''m wrong.

but believe me.. I am not trying to be disruptive, I am trying to have an intelligent convo. about this

openbahr, i didn´t mean you specifically when i talked about hecklers but people are just swishing by this thread and write comments without reading the whole thread and really figure out how it works.
With a $500 unit size, sdiinc would now be down about $9446 with an average line of 125 if my calculations is right.

He has talked repeatedly about the unavoidable losing streaks and anyone who has been reading this thread knows that we have already had a 6 game losing streak about a month ago. And that´s the reason you should only bet 2% of your bankroll (that´s your unit) on the first bet

I hear what you are saying about his stats and i can´t speak for Mark when it comes to that. My guess is that he has stats in his database that span over last season as well which has skewed his picks somewhat. Remember that we had some succes in this thread as well. Mark mentioned that he was working on an excel based database which he would be able to work himself since he wasn´t sure how to manage the one he has now.
He also shared that he thought it was getting out of hand with emails about his system and he felt like it was becoming a part time job for him so what worries me now is that Mark has gone sour on the thread and all people who are constantly pounding him with comments and accusations when he was only trying to be helpful.

I totally understand that ther will be some slumps. its inevitable.
I am kinda just "thinking out loud" when I write some of these posts and it sounds like i'm being negative.
but I truly like his system and would love to have it work.

as you say, it has been working for months.

as for unit size.. im confused.
if his unit size was $500 then dosent that mean he bets $500
so wouldnt it be
loss1 -500
l-- 2   -500
l--3   -1000
l4---    -2000
l5----- -4000
l6----  -8000
l7---  -16000
add them up and its 32,000  am I doing something wrong?

another thing we can look at... I lost on a dog tues night so I bet a favorite last night {TB) and hit to break even. maybe when you start losing you should switch to favorites which seem to have a better chance.  just a thought

Sorry guys, I didn't have a play yesterday.

Today is DET over TB @ 128

Jeez, I wish I knew this secret "formula".  There is no formula you fools.  If there ever was a formula, nobody would have to work again.  Just bet baseball games.  I hope for your sakes none of you are over the age of 17.  Unreal.

Gentlemen,

My real-life money management job has kept me busy recently, so I apologize for the lack of posts.  Let me try to address some of the recent posts with a summary:

You can't measure 10 events of anything and use that as a basis for logical regression.  100 events or 1000 would be a better number, and the formula has worked over two seasons now.  I know that may be contrary to the way gamblers think, but my approach is like investing, and you have to be prepared for the long run.  You don't stop simply because probabilities catch up with you.

And, as I've said repeatedly, we ARE using current year data.  There is some data from last year in the database also, but of course that factored into our successes from April to September.  The question to ask is whether there is a place for previous season data early in the year, but at some point it is no longer relevant, or whether there is no place for it, or whether it should have a diminishing weight in the db.  My experience last season gave no indication that the presence of previous season data was problematic.

To those wondering about the bankroll, I've said several times that the bankroll doubled early in the season, but that was due to betting an disproportionate percentage of the total.  It was undue risk that I decided to back off of in terms of unit %, which got me to the 2% I've mentioned previously. 

Also, I've bet on alot more games than those I posted here, plus NFL games, and I never adjusted my unit size upwards as the bankroll grew.  Finally, I've been fortunate enough to be able to add to the bankroll with additional contributions (the goal being quitting the day job by MLB season end).  Yes, a few of the larger bets I have had to spread across multiple books.  I suspect many of you have not limited your bets to the MLB underdogs I've posted either.

Obviously those who started significantly later in the season would have a different experience than someone who started on day 1, as is the case for anyone who invests at different times and durations.  The guy who invested with me 10 years ago has done alot better than the guy who started last month.  That's just how it works.

Also, openbahr and others of you who still think this is a progressive 'double' system still don't understand-go back and read again.  I don't mind anyone critiquing the methods, but hopefully we can stick with constructive ideas grounded in accuracy and objectivity.

I have run enough numbers now that I think for next year I will abandon the progressive approach altogether, and simply bet more games with a straight unit approach.  Looking back at this season there are many days where a 2nd or 3rd game could be bet with reasonable accuracy, and this provides the opportunity to maintain the profit level while avoiding the risk of the progressive approach.  It could also be that the progressive approach should be scaled to a certain unit size or certain number of games, an approach that might take advantage of the high incidence of two game losses without getting too big on unit size commitment.

Additionally, some of you have emailed me offline asking why the formula couldn't identify favorites with a reasonable ML, and I've reconisdered that approach and think it is possible, although I haven't backtested it.  The idea would be to identify favorites who have a 60% probability of winning and who are not suffering from a severe ML disadvantage (as is so often the case).  If you can't pick favs at 60% or better, I don't think it's a good value proposition.

Mark

Nice to have you back Mark. I thought we lost you

CUB over MIL @ 110

personally, i would've stopped after yesterday's win.
there just isn't enough games left to make up a loss.
but GL and look forward to seeing the year end results like dharbour says!

LOS over SFO @ 140

I assume it goes without saying that at this time in the season those of you who are using a progressive approach might want to exercise extreme caution. 

I will continue to post games that fit my formula, including in the post season.

We're up 54 units for the season and I'll continue to post through the playoffs.

what about if you don't chase, how many units are you up?

I don't have that figure at the moment, because the system is designed for progressive play.  If we weren't using that money management system we would bet on average 2.27 times more per day, with comparable results.

What I can tell you is we're at 48.9% for the season with 164 events, and an average ML of 134.

Very unusual, but multiple opportunities today.

ATL over HOU @ 128
TEX over LAA @ 130
CUB over MIL @ 250
PIT over SDG @ 150