I got some email questions from y'all, and yes, the formula on PIT looks good over CIN, and yes, PIT is at home, but the line is no good. The line is a significant factor in my formula because by betting on dogs with an average line of about 125 I've got a substantial advantage over what are otherwise break even odds (truth be told I'm about 55% on dogs ytd).
I hope that helps.
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I got some email questions from y'all, and yes, the formula on PIT looks good over CIN, and yes, PIT is at home, but the line is no good. The line is a significant factor in my formula because by betting on dogs with an average line of about 125 I've got a substantial advantage over what are otherwise break even odds (truth be told I'm about 55% on dogs ytd).
sdiinc, I Wanted To Know if You Could Explain Your Formula(Numerically) To Me . Thank You
JayJay, I'm not sure what you mean by numerically. Over the course of the posts above I've explained essentially everything. The result of each formula will either be a negative number or a positive number, which is a predictor of the home team's margin of victory (or loss). What I'm looking for is where the underdog (by the line) is actually favored to win, or where the formulas are split but very close.
Today, COL vs AZ I had formula 1 result .88 and formula 2 result 1.36. This predicts a COL win, and yet COL was the underdog, so I bet them. If you look back over the last month you'll see my predictions, all based on this formula.
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Quote Originally Posted by jayjay81:
sdiinc, I Wanted To Know if You Could Explain Your Formula(Numerically) To Me . Thank You
JayJay, I'm not sure what you mean by numerically. Over the course of the posts above I've explained essentially everything. The result of each formula will either be a negative number or a positive number, which is a predictor of the home team's margin of victory (or loss). What I'm looking for is where the underdog (by the line) is actually favored to win, or where the formulas are split but very close.
Today, COL vs AZ I had formula 1 result .88 and formula 2 result 1.36. This predicts a COL win, and yet COL was the underdog, so I bet them. If you look back over the last month you'll see my predictions, all based on this formula.
I Meant By You Saying: PPG home + ERA road. So Does That Mean For Example: Like The COL vs. AZ Game Today, Do I Take COL's PPG (4.6) + Glendon Rusch's road ERA (5.67) And Divide It Against AZ's PPG road + ERA home And Divide It By 2?
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I Meant By You Saying: PPG home + ERA road. So Does That Mean For Example: Like The COL vs. AZ Game Today, Do I Take COL's PPG (4.6) + Glendon Rusch's road ERA (5.67) And Divide It Against AZ's PPG road + ERA home And Divide It By 2?
I think what JayJay is asking is for you to take a game and plug in the actual numbers into the formula for him, so he can visualize it. Where do you get the stats from? Do you have a database, or do you use a site. The reason I ask is that I use Covers stats from the matchup page for each game, and my numbers end up way off from yours. For example, yesterday's Arz/Col game, I had .25 and -.18 on formulas 1 & 2 respectively. I HOPE WE AREN'T BECOMING A BURDEN TO YOU WITH THESE QUESTIONS. YOU ARE THE TEACHER, AND WE ARE THE EAGER STUDENTS, TRYING TO SOAK UP THE KNOWLEDGE YOU HAVE. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR TAKING TIME TO POST WINNERS FOR US ON HERE.
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SDIINC
I think what JayJay is asking is for you to take a game and plug in the actual numbers into the formula for him, so he can visualize it. Where do you get the stats from? Do you have a database, or do you use a site. The reason I ask is that I use Covers stats from the matchup page for each game, and my numbers end up way off from yours. For example, yesterday's Arz/Col game, I had .25 and -.18 on formulas 1 & 2 respectively. I HOPE WE AREN'T BECOMING A BURDEN TO YOU WITH THESE QUESTIONS. YOU ARE THE TEACHER, AND WE ARE THE EAGER STUDENTS, TRYING TO SOAK UP THE KNOWLEDGE YOU HAVE. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR TAKING TIME TO POST WINNERS FOR US ON HERE.
Friends, I'm happy to help explain my formula wherever possible. Don't read anything into the 'tone' of my posts other than what's there; sometimes I'm in a hurry just to place my bet and post and then get on with the rest of my day, which by the way includes my business and 9 kids (yes, nine, all by the same woman), not to mention their mother and that keeps me pretty busy.
So, here's the deal: I had a friend who had been compiling a db last year, and was relating certain trends to me but didn't know enough to capitalize on them. Because of my background in stocks, I picked up on some things and thought there had to be some opportunity there.
I played for about a month last fall before the postseason. This spring I began in earnest. However, I've been working with the same DB I was provided and it was in some sort of PHP/MySQL format and it's been difficult for me to open it up and examine. Thus, I've had to relate to you how it is SUPPOSED to work, and I don't look at the innerworkings every day.
So, that's a long way of saying I promise to try to post every day, as I have for the last month, and I'll do my best to explain it for everyone. In the meantime, I'm working on recreating this in Excel and drawing on publicly available data so it's a little less of a Black Box.
I hope this helps. And thanks for the good-natured ribbing about RPG and PPG.
BTW, I have a similar formula for NFL, so once the season starts I'll post my plays there. It hit about 65% last year.
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Friends, I'm happy to help explain my formula wherever possible. Don't read anything into the 'tone' of my posts other than what's there; sometimes I'm in a hurry just to place my bet and post and then get on with the rest of my day, which by the way includes my business and 9 kids (yes, nine, all by the same woman), not to mention their mother and that keeps me pretty busy.
So, here's the deal: I had a friend who had been compiling a db last year, and was relating certain trends to me but didn't know enough to capitalize on them. Because of my background in stocks, I picked up on some things and thought there had to be some opportunity there.
I played for about a month last fall before the postseason. This spring I began in earnest. However, I've been working with the same DB I was provided and it was in some sort of PHP/MySQL format and it's been difficult for me to open it up and examine. Thus, I've had to relate to you how it is SUPPOSED to work, and I don't look at the innerworkings every day.
So, that's a long way of saying I promise to try to post every day, as I have for the last month, and I'll do my best to explain it for everyone. In the meantime, I'm working on recreating this in Excel and drawing on publicly available data so it's a little less of a Black Box.
I hope this helps. And thanks for the good-natured ribbing about RPG and PPG.
BTW, I have a similar formula for NFL, so once the season starts I'll post my plays there. It hit about 65% last year.
Hey Sdiinc, we had a tough loss with Milawakee! Thanks so much for posting your picks! You are very generous and will always have a special place in this Gorilla's heart!
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Hey Sdiinc, we had a tough loss with Milawakee! Thanks so much for posting your picks! You are very generous and will always have a special place in this Gorilla's heart!
Hey guys, I'm going with PIT over NYM. Because I've lost two in a row, I will be betting 1.4 units today to cover.
There are several attractive games today, but this one has by far the best ML value. Just an insight into how I value those; I take the line and I divide it into 100. In this case, 152 into 100. I then multiply the result (.658) by .50, which gives me .34, which is 34%, or the winning rate I need at this ML to break even. (.50 being the generic break even rate if my ML were 100).
So when I look at the formulas that I run and I analyze the results, what I see is that a certain game should be about a 50/50 toss up, and yet one team is getting this great ML, and so the numbers here help me choose based on ML when the other factors may not distinguish one game over another. I guess that's a complicated way of explaining how I value the ML premium, and I'm sure someone out there has a more sophisticated system and a better way of explaining it.
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Hey guys, I'm going with PIT over NYM. Because I've lost two in a row, I will be betting 1.4 units today to cover.
There are several attractive games today, but this one has by far the best ML value. Just an insight into how I value those; I take the line and I divide it into 100. In this case, 152 into 100. I then multiply the result (.658) by .50, which gives me .34, which is 34%, or the winning rate I need at this ML to break even. (.50 being the generic break even rate if my ML were 100).
So when I look at the formulas that I run and I analyze the results, what I see is that a certain game should be about a 50/50 toss up, and yet one team is getting this great ML, and so the numbers here help me choose based on ML when the other factors may not distinguish one game over another. I guess that's a complicated way of explaining how I value the ML premium, and I'm sure someone out there has a more sophisticated system and a better way of explaining it.
Baseball underdogs (all MLB games) just had their worst week of the
season, losing more than 21 units. They have now lost 71 units from
Week 6 through today.
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Baseball underdogs (all MLB games) just had their worst week of the
season, losing more than 21 units. They have now lost 71 units from
Week 6 through today.
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