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Critique My Method

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Posted: #51
Baltimore had a nice victory yesterday which put us back to even. Today I'm going with Arizona over Los Angeles @ 140.
 
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Posted: #52
AZ lost yesterday so today I'm going with SFO and with a ML of 136 I'll bet .75 units.
 
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Posted: #53
I am with you bro lets get it done huh
 
 
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Posted: #54
How does this translate into 5-Inning games? Seems like it would be more accurate since your formula has the starters ERA and the first 5 innings is mostly starter only. 
 
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Posted: #55
After you do the formula how do you decide if its a play or not. 
I got the formula but how do you compare the first to the 2nd?

I did the MIL/CIN game just for practice and came up with -.03 for formula 1 and .03 for formula two. Any advice or corrections? Thanks for the time
 
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Posted: #56
Found the info you´re looking  for. It´s right after the formula...


"I'm looking for the two formulas to agree, i.e., both result in a positive outcome or both result in a negative outcome (of course that's a predictor of the home team's likely margin of victory/loss).

Finally, I favor home underdogs and I look for dogs that have a ML of 120 or better (although not strict on this latter part)."
 
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Posted: #57
Hey sdiinc! I´m very interested in your picks so please continue to post them if you have the time.
Also have a couple of questions; where do you get your stats from? And how do you find out PPG?)

A big thanks! This is interesting.


 
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Posted: #58
Pete you can find the PPG on mlb.com team stats
 
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Posted: #59
You can find R/9 here at covers. MLB main click on matchup on the game your interested in. At the top of the page is a HOME/AWAY option. It has era and r/9 for both Home and Away teams
 
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Posted: #60
Thank you for the quick answers! Have only been reading the forum for some time but i guess it´s time to get some writing in too.

I have been struggling with this mlb season like everybody else (it seems) and are now following (and trying) different systems and money management options to see if i can at least learn something to use in the future so this season haven´t been a total loss.
 
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Posted: #61
Sorry to be late in posting y'all.  SFO lost yesterday, and today I'm going with CLE over TAM @ 122, so I'll bet a total of 1.5 units.
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:

How does this translate into 5-Inning games? Seems like it would be more accurate since your formula has the starters ERA and the first 5 innings is mostly starter only. 


I use the runs scored during the game in which that pitcher starts.  So, this is effectively a combination of the pitcher ERA plus bullpen ERA.  I have not attempted to calculate it the way another user suggested above, simply because it's working for me and I'm not a programmer and I haven't bothered to ask my guy to work up a new formula.
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:

After you do the formula how do you decide if its a play or not. 
I got the formula but how do you compare the first to the 2nd?

I did the MIL/CIN game just for practice and came up with -.03 for formula 1 and .03 for formula two. Any advice or corrections? Thanks for the time


I'm looking for both formulas to be positive (home team win) or both be negative (home team loss), which means they're in agreement.  Sometimes I go with a team even if they're not in perfect agreement, if one formula produces a substantially different number and the other number is small.  For example, on a recent win, I went with the visitor when formula 1 was -1.2 and formula 2 was 0.35.  In other words, they didn't agree, but the first formula predicted a visitor win by more than a run, and the 2nd formula was barely positive.  Remember, my decision making process also includes a consideration of the 'value' of the line, i.e., if it's a 'tie' game based on my formula but the ML is 130, I consider that an opportunity.


 
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Posted: #64
Thanks for the time SDIINC i appreciate it. 
 
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Posted: #65
Nice explanation. Thanks for the clarification and a nice win tonight.
 
 
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Posted: #66
Nice win. 

I had both formulas positive in the CLE/TB game wouldnt that mean that the home team would win the game according to the system? I may have the wrong formula
 
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Posted: #67
I'm going with FLA over PHI today. 
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:

Nice win. 

I had both formulas positive in the CLE/TB game wouldnt that mean that the home team would win the game according to the system? I may have the wrong formula


The result of the formula, when properly calculated, should show you the winning/losing margin of the home team.  Therefore if you see two positive results, the home team should win, and two negative results means the home team loses.

On today's pick, I had two negative results and a strong ML, so it makes for a perfect play.  BTW, TEX over NYY also looks good (but not great).
 
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Posted: #69
I trust everyone took FLA and TEX tonight? Two nice payoffs.
 
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Posted: #70
Very nice! I have just been testing it out for myself but I definitely think you are on to something. 

This is a little off topic but I ran into a customer of mine that is into investing and he knows I invest as well, was saying that I should take a look at options. Since you sound like you know markets pretty well how do you feel about options. Any advice???
 
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Posted: #71
I only took the Marlins since you sounded unsure about Texas. But i´m happy anyway

Thanks for the pick!
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:

Very nice! I have just been testing it out for myself but I definitely think you are on to something. 

This is a little off topic but I ran into a customer of mine that is into investing and he knows I invest as well, was saying that I should take a look at options. Since you sound like you know markets pretty well how do you feel about options. Any advice???


Options are great if you have the stomach for them and are great at picking stocks.  I've made alot of money on options over the years, but you can lose your shirt as well.  It's just buying stocks but with leverage.  Keep in mind that options have a time value to them as well, so it's not just being 'right', but being right quickly.

 
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Posted: #73
I'm going with FLA over PHI again today.  The matchup looks great and the line is 138.  TEX still looks good against NYY but not as strong as yesterday.
 
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Posted: #74
If you're following this you may get tired of FLA, but I'm taking them over PHI today with a ML of 190.  Because I lost yesterday, I'm betting .65 units on this game to breakeven.

I'm also going with TEX over NYY.  The matchup looks better than it has the last two days, and the ML is 138.
 
 
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Posted: #75
I am so sick of following you with Florida!! But I am not sick of cashing in on it!! Gotta love hitting a dog at 190..

I along with others on here Im sure appreciate the time of posting your picks. Thanks. Can you tell me the results from formula 1 and 2 from the Florida game to see if I get the same out come? Where do you get your stats from as well. Thanks


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