Posted:
#126
BAL over BOS @ 110.
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Critique My Method
Posted:
#127
Quote Originally Posted by milkman33:
Formula might need a little tweaking?
No, we were due for a correction because we have overperformed in recent weeks. The formula should average around 52% so any time we're above that we're bound to get a few losses. Going into this losing streak we were above 60%, so it's to be expected. Our objective now is just to minimize losses.
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Posted:
#130
Sdiinc.... please try to take into account what i have written above. the formula you are using would hit at a consitant 60% approx. 10 years ago, when starting pitching was the underlaying majority of handicapping professional baseball. However; unfortuantly, this is no longer the case and has left many cappers stugeling w/ formulas and turning to subjective means of analysis. you, my friend seem to understand the importance of leaving subjectivity out of handicapping because this will destroy a bankroll faster than anything else. Find a way to add the latter innings into your formula in a productive way and you sould raise your percentage by a number of points. You are doing a great job for someone "relativly new to handiapping". remeber, be as indeppth as possible, stick to your system, and you will have consitant winnings. Good luck w/ all your plays, and god bless. Gin and Tonic 
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Posted:
#132
Quote Originally Posted by GnT:
Sdiinc.... please try to take into account what i have written above. the formula you are using would hit at a consitant 60% approx. 10 years ago, when starting pitching was the underlaying majority of handicapping professional baseball. However; unfortuantly, this is no longer the case and has left many cappers stugeling w/ formulas and turning to subjective means of analysis. you, my friend seem to understand the importance of leaving subjectivity out of handicapping because this will destroy a bankroll faster than anything else. Find a way to add the latter innings into your formula in a productive way and you sould raise your percentage by a number of points. You are doing a great job for someone "relativly new to handiapping". remeber, be as indeppth as possible, stick to your system, and you will have consitant winnings. Good luck w/ all your plays, and god bless. Gin and Tonic
I think I understand what you are saying about latter innings, i.e., performance after the starting pitcher is no longer in the game, and we do consider that because we're looking at the total runs scored in the game in which the pitcher starts.
It's very possible I have not been as clear about this as a I could.
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Posted:
#133
Tonight, Houston was our biggest payoff of the year so far at 220, and if you were playing along as good students should, you had a pretty big payoff bringing us back to our high water mark; we're up 9 units for the month and +50 units for the year.
I'm getting a fair amount of email off-forum, and I'm okay with that, but keep in mind I'm not always checking email so I may not be able to respond in a timely manner. I do have some thoughts I want to share with y'all as a result of my interactions with some of you this last month, so stay tuned.
Until then, celebrate! My suggestion is a tanqueray martini with an extra olive.
I'm getting a fair amount of email off-forum, and I'm okay with that, but keep in mind I'm not always checking email so I may not be able to respond in a timely manner. I do have some thoughts I want to share with y'all as a result of my interactions with some of you this last month, so stay tuned.
Until then, celebrate! My suggestion is a tanqueray martini with an extra olive.
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Posted:
#136
Several of you have emailed and expressed concern about a 5 game losing streak. Keep in mind that these things are inevitable. We've had 127 plays since the beginning of the season. When you average just over 50%, it's inevitable that you'll get some streaks-winners or losers. Thus far we've had two 5-game losing streaks, but we also regularly have 4 game win streaks, just as August 7th through 10th.
If you want to read about binomial distribution, go here. Or, take a quarter out and start flipping it. You'll discover that although the chances of heads are 50% each time, it's very easy to get heads 2, 3, 4 even 5 times in a row. The first time I did it a few months ago I got heads 6 times out of 10!
The point is that we remain disciplined and stick with a proven system and good money management.
If you want to read about binomial distribution, go here. Or, take a quarter out and start flipping it. You'll discover that although the chances of heads are 50% each time, it's very easy to get heads 2, 3, 4 even 5 times in a row. The first time I did it a few months ago I got heads 6 times out of 10!
The point is that we remain disciplined and stick with a proven system and good money management.
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Posted:
#138
Hey guys, pending the results of tonight's game, this guys' posted record is 14-21. That ain't too good. I'm just trying to figure out why everyone is trying to figure out a formula that hits at a 40% rate. He probably works for one of the online books like 75% of the other posters who give picks on this site. They just want you to bet, bet, bet. Don't you guys get it???? You'll follow this guy for while- til you lose your account- then follow someone else- and so on. It's all a trap. I know, I fell for the same thing when I first started online gambling.
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Posted:
#139
Quote Originally Posted by milkman33:
Hey guys, pending the results of tonight's game, this guys' posted record is 14-21. That ain't too good. I'm just trying to figure out why everyone is trying to figure out a formula that hits at a 40% rate. He probably works for one of the online books like 75% of the other posters who give picks on this site. They just want you to bet, bet, bet. Don't you guys get it???? You'll follow this guy for while- til you lose your account- then follow someone else- and so on. It's all a trap. I know, I fell for the same thing when I first started online gambling.
Actually in July we had 13 wins and 12 losses for a 12 unit gain and in August we've had 10 wins and 11 losses for a 11 unit gain. I don't work for a sportsbook and haven't promoted one or asked anyone for anything. Perhaps you have something you would like to contribute? As my original post said I'm interested in constructive feedback.
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Posted:
#141
Quote Originally Posted by milkman33:
Hey guys, pending the results of tonight's game, this guys' posted record is 14-21. That ain't too good. I'm just trying to figure out why everyone is trying to figure out a formula that hits at a 40% rate. He probably works for one of the online books like 75% of the other posters who give picks on this site. They just want you to bet, bet, bet. Don't you guys get it???? You'll follow this guy for while- til you lose your account- then follow someone else- and so on. It's all a trap. I know, I fell for the same thing when I first started online gambling.
Actually, that record is outstanding when you consider that all his selections are dogs. And just as importantly, his money management is sound.
I don't post much, but I feel the need to jump in when I see a "diamond" in a field of ruby's.
Continued success to you sdiinc. I know I'll be tagging along anytime he puts up a game.
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Posted:
#146
Quote Originally Posted by milkman33:
OK- You show us the math on how you are up 11 units in August and I'll get off your back.
Milkman, I try to assume that everyone is genuine and sincere, even if the evidence suggests otherwise, so I'll answer your question.
We have had 21 events so far this month, 47% winners, and they look like this:
WLLWWLWWWWLLWLLLLLWLW
Now, each series of losses is offset by the following win because of the money management method I have described in detail in previous posts. The result is that we have net gains wherever you have back to back wins. I'll bold those occasions for you to see:
WLLWWLWWWWLLWLLLLLWLW
This month our average ML on winners has been 152. So where you have 1 win cancel up to 5 losses, you can see how the system would be profitable even if we happen to have more losses than wins.
If you're really interested, I suggest you go back and start at the beginning of the thread and read thoroughly. If I have been insufficiently clear in any of my explanations, I'll be happy to clarify, and I welcome your suggestions for improving our methodology or money management method. After all, I've posted my formula, so it's there for all the world to see and use!
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