Following FAU upset last night, SU Bowl winners now stand 7-1 ATS this Season (3 outright dogs). Sooner or later, expect the points to figure in the equation!!
Also, since write-ups may mention the "stat factor", note that Bowl winners have won "stats" 7 of 8 thus far...
OMEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL--Virtually a homer for NC, the game sold out and surely conditions will favor the TarHeels. From a handicapping standpoint, this match-up can be summarized in two words. Pat White. WVU has won 3 consecutive Bowls, last year nailing OKLA by 20. In '06 WV (i.e. Pat White!) rallied from 18 down to beat GaTech. In White's "Bowl Career", WVU has scored AT LEAST 38 ppg. Bothered by injuries much of this season, White is healthy here and will be the most athletic, dominating player on this field. With 26 Seniors on the roster, he's got plenty of support and experience behind him. 1st year Coach Stewart has taken heat in Morgantown all season, alumni not happy with his hire to replace Rich Rodriguez. Keep in mind, Stewart was the Offensive Co-ordinator during current streak of Bowl wins! NC will certainly have the "eye of the tiger" behind Butch Davis and this Home crowd. Haven't been Bowling since a loss to BC in '04. TarHeels stumbled down the stretch and were an inconsistent unit all season with some quality wins (BC, GaTech) but plenty of stumbles (NCSt., Mary, VA). And never faced an opponent with near the athleticism of Pat White. NC indeed an improved up-and-coming program. But in a nutshell, I do not believe they can stop Pat White. I do not believe they can contain Pat White. And in his final game, I do not think they can slow Pat White down. And while Butch Davis may be a well-respected Coach, he is hardly considered an upper-tier game planner or big-gamer. A final HUGE INTANGIBLE that was previously touched upon. Bill Stewart. I have mentioned earlier the "first-year" coach in a Bowl Game and the lean to go against one. Think we have the opposite situation here of note: first, as mentioned, Stewart has been with this program...and to Bowl Games. Secondly, more importantly...
26 Seniors here that have been with Stewart thru the thick and the thin. They KNOW he's under a LOT of heat in Morgantown....and they truly love this man! The man that stood behind them when Rodriguez sold them down the river!
They know they have NOT played up to capabilities all season and Stewart took the heat. They are the superior Program with better athletes on both sides of the ball that always seem to gel and turn-it-up-a-notch in a Bowl atmosphere. Expect maybe NC will hang thru the 1st half. Then expect White to put Stewart, fellow Seniors, and all of Morgantown on his shoulders and put an exclamation point on a record-setting career!
WEST VIRGINIA -2 *2* CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL--A perennial Bowler that LOVES to run the football, play defense, and knows how to win! WOW...we have two here! Expect this one to go down to the wire and truly believe this one again decided on the intangibles. Wisky started the season strongly, high expectations, and up to #8 national ranking. Then a giveaway loss to a lowly Michigan team after leading 19-0. And then the Buckeyes, Penn St, and and Iowa. Finished with a 1 pt OT win vs. an outmanned, outpowered CalPoly (?!?!) team at HOME! Kinda tough to get yourself up for a team like that? But they're 13-4 ATS out of the Big10, a veteran squad with a highly regarded Coach. And of note,
dogs in Wisky Bowl Games have cashed 7 of last 9! FSU on a recent 3-5 SU Bowl record and an Orlando crowd strongly to 'Noles' advantage. Wisky has always matched-up well against the "speed" teams and has balance and a style of play that could control the clock. They also have an Offensive Line averaging 320 that should allow for them to run the ball and utilize clock. As much as they stumbled down the stretch,
WISKY won the stat-war in each of their final 6 games; as I noted earlier, stat-winners are outright winners 80% of the time! Physical Big10 dogs with rest (other than OSU!) have traditionally been solid plays. An
Add a 48-17 Bowl Angle, another 20-5 Bowl Angle, and a handful of points, and we'll make the Badgers of
WISCONSIN + 6 our 1st **5** STRONG+PLAY
EMERALD BOWL--Another "home" game here, virtually all the handicapping tools favor the home Golden Bears here. Schedule strengths, athleticism, experience. QB problems for Miami. Think in a regular season game, I'm all over a home Cal team. But this isn't regular season and we're looking at (what we think) a few intangibles that work in the favor of a TD+ dog! Randy Shannon with a RESTED squad can flat out coach. He has speed, he has athletes, he has a defense, and he has special teams. STRONG special teams. And did I mention...he has SPEED!! CAL has won with speed. Not a "given" with PAC 10 teams...and Miami has a few LB's that could make this interesting. Don't know if CAL will rush with the same success against this "D" unit, and QB Longshore's throwing success has been anything but consistent this year.
Note that CAL finished the season on a 0-3 "stat run". Last year, an un-prepared, un-motivated CAL team showed-up at the Armed Services Bowl and let Air Force run up-and-down the field on them. Dug themselves a big hole, then watched AF QB blow-out a knee attempting to score right before the half; AF never recovered, Cal got their act together, and came from behind to win by a TD. This year's Miami squad a lot bigger...a lot more physical..a lot quicker..than last year's AF squad. Cal had better be prepared moreso than they were last year. Miami stayed home last year. A traditional Bowl team, 23 Upperclassmen should be motivated to be back in the mix. Should be motivated by reading for a month they're outclassed. Maybe they are, that's why they play the Game! did,
This one hits the same 48-17 Angle that Wisky did and also
hits a BOWL Fade angle that is 14-2. Grab the points, a lot closer than everyone's expecting!
MIAMI + 10 *3* GOOD LUCK!! Go Dogs Go....
in da bank!
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