BOWL SYSTEM PLAYS

OK, here we go.....  Again, reference the top post here to reference the strength's of our plays.  Won't promise this through the entire 34 Games, but since time permits (actually doing this FRI nite), will add a bit of logic here.  Might not hit 'em all...but trust this System, you'll be ahead.  I don't expect 100% agreement...don't even expect 50% on some, and really don't care much about other opinions as our play's are in and won't change.  Lines listed current as of 8:50 a.m. EST.                             Lastly, remember: "1"s are LEANS ONLY!!  BEST OF LUCK!!
 
CONGRESSIONAL BOWL--Pretty much a homer for Navy, figures to be a low-scoring game.  Middies closed the season with 2 shut-outs.  Wake is not much of a scoring machine; if it should turn into a shoot-out, think Navy can match 'em!  Won the first game @ Wake as 17 pt dogs; I know Wake backers will blame 6 TO's for that.  Keep in mind Navy was already up 16-0 and lost their QB to injury...well guess what, he's back and 100%!  30+ seniors on this squad, with a better rushing attack, weather conditions that'll be in their favor, and Wake traditionally a poor favorite play, as well as a poor road play.  The revenge factor can only carry a team so far.  Two years ago, Navy lost by 1 pt to BC in the last minute; last year they lost by 3 to a Utah team that is this year 12-0 and in a BCS Bowl.  Wrong favorite here.  NAVY +3  *2* SYSTEM
 
NEW MEXICO BOWL--Fresno one of the major disappointments of the year, lots of hype off last season, a fast start...then an injury or two, or three..the season went ugly and unravelled.  Finished the season with a 1-10 ATS run.  Colo St finished above expectations with a 1st year Coach, gave both TCU and AF a tussle.  Their first bowl since 2000, think they are EXCITED to be Bowling while Fresno would rather think about what should've been.  A healthy Fresno, all the advantages and the better athletes, could run wild here.  But I'm guessing the intangibles and the thrill of being here can  carry COLO ST +2.5  *1* (lean only)
 
ST PETE BOWL--A homer for USF here, the Bulls only 3-8 ATS as a fave.  Grothe alot of TO's lately, hopefully a few more today!  Memphis has not been a strong Roadie this year, have TO problems of their own, and their "D" has been a sieve!   But figure to score enough to keep within a big number.  Note that USW was out-statted 1-3 its last 4 games, while Memphis finished on a 4-0 stat-run advantage.  27 Seniors should be pumped to be here, after losing 1st 3 games...don't see USF overly excited about going no-where after a disappointing year.  Hold the ball Tigers! 
MEMPHIS + 12 *2* SYSTEM
 
LAS VEGAS BOWL--Just listened to ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit pick ZONA here, last I knew he got paid to announce and not pick winners.  Seems AZ everyone's "hot" media team this year.  A SYSTEM Qualifier and love the intangibles here!  BYU has had a couple weeks to read how AZ the better team here..even though they've beaten 2 PAC 10 teams this year and destroyed a New Mex team that whacked AZ.  BYU has won last 2 Bowl Games...both vs. PAC10 teams.  For those that don't look at rosters, BYU's SMALLEST off.-lineman weighs 320...AZ's BIGGEST def.-lineman weighs 270!!  Quite a difference...in a game in a town just hit by a snowstorm and cold temperatures that a ARIZ team isn't gonna like...kinda easier to run than to pass, so look for the conditions to hinder AZ speed advantage.  BYU has 30 Seniors with Bowl experience and the Mountain West was 6-1 SU last year's Bowls.  BYU HAS WON 10 STRAIGHT ON THIS FIELD!  Lastly, superior Special Team play.  Stoops and AZ no Bowl experience, last Bowl in '98...no doubt, they'll be excited to be here, but don't think the adrenaline alone will pull this one out.  Just not enough firepower to match the Coug's, esp. on an off-track field...that BYU has owned!   BYU +3.5  *4* STRONG SYSTEM
 
GOOD LUCK---will post TROY/SOU MISS after 4 EST SUN