BOWL SYSTEM PLAYS
NEVADA - 2 *1* Lean Only
NEVADA - 2 *1* Lean Only
Here we go guys..do to what this pick means to us, we have contacted all our people...and already seeing a move we're gonna post 'em now...GOOD LUCK!!
TEXAS BOWL--Another expected shoot-out in what will basically be a "homer" for RICE. An absolute scoring machine, both by land and by air! But tell me...why? Why..being a home team...scoring over 40 in 7 games...coming in with a 6-game win streak...did Vegas make this line only "3"??!! That's where it opened, that's where it's stayed! WMU coming in off a thrashing by Ball St. Who else beat 'em? Central Mich and Nebraska!! They beat Bowler's Buffalo, N-Ill., and non-bowling Illini. RICE went 3-3 vs. Bowlers, soundly beaten by Vandy, Tulsa, and Texas while beating SoMiss, Houston, and Memphis. Why...only "3"? RICE scores points, the public loves to bet teams that score points...still the line hasn't bulged. Tells me that Vegas thinks maybe WMU's the better team (better "D" anyway) and the smart money agrees?? WMU can likewise score some points. They are coming into this Bowl having lost their last 3 Bowls...after falling behind 14-0 in each. Pretty good motivational angle. To those of you that "study" football, RICE employs a 4-2-5 Defense. May work against spreads and the wide open no-defense games in C-USA, but that defense does NOT match-up well against a balanced Offense. How did C-USA Memphis match-up against USF...public loved 'em, BULLS thrashed 'em! WMU has balance of the run and the short-passing game that can utilize clock. And when you do that..you keep the ball and let the opponent's high-potent offense watch from the sidelines. Note that RICE is 3-10 SU of late against teams outside C-USA. And 3-9-1 ATS. WMU has 20+ seniors, have had time to heal some key injuries, and have a decided advantage in the kicking game. We also hit a Situational Angle that proved a winner fading Central Mich earlier. We'll take the better Defense and hope to survive the 1st Quarter...
WESTERN MICHIGAN + 3 **3**
Here we go guys..do to what this pick means to us, we have contacted all our people...and already seeing a move we're gonna post 'em now...GOOD LUCK!!
TEXAS BOWL--Another expected shoot-out in what will basically be a "homer" for RICE. An absolute scoring machine, both by land and by air! But tell me...why? Why..being a home team...scoring over 40 in 7 games...coming in with a 6-game win streak...did Vegas make this line only "3"??!! That's where it opened, that's where it's stayed! WMU coming in off a thrashing by Ball St. Who else beat 'em? Central Mich and Nebraska!! They beat Bowler's Buffalo, N-Ill., and non-bowling Illini. RICE went 3-3 vs. Bowlers, soundly beaten by Vandy, Tulsa, and Texas while beating SoMiss, Houston, and Memphis. Why...only "3"? RICE scores points, the public loves to bet teams that score points...still the line hasn't bulged. Tells me that Vegas thinks maybe WMU's the better team (better "D" anyway) and the smart money agrees?? WMU can likewise score some points. They are coming into this Bowl having lost their last 3 Bowls...after falling behind 14-0 in each. Pretty good motivational angle. To those of you that "study" football, RICE employs a 4-2-5 Defense. May work against spreads and the wide open no-defense games in C-USA, but that defense does NOT match-up well against a balanced Offense. How did C-USA Memphis match-up against USF...public loved 'em, BULLS thrashed 'em! WMU has balance of the run and the short-passing game that can utilize clock. And when you do that..you keep the ball and let the opponent's high-potent offense watch from the sidelines. Note that RICE is 3-10 SU of late against teams outside C-USA. And 3-9-1 ATS. WMU has 20+ seniors, have had time to heal some key injuries, and have a decided advantage in the kicking game. We also hit a Situational Angle that proved a winner fading Central Mich earlier. We'll take the better Defense and hope to survive the 1st Quarter...
WESTERN MICHIGAN + 3 **3**
The Cowboys last 8 games show them a solid "stat-loser" in 5 of those. Texas Tech hung 56 on 'em, the Sooners 61. Both exploited Defensive weaknesses galore and have to believe the Ducks have the speed and balance to put similar numbers up. And who's gonna make adjustments if your D-Coordinator is gone!? Just think too much to overcome (yet another!) a season-ending ass-whipping by arch-rival OKLA. Expect Belotti to come up with a good-enough Game Plan for his rested "D" to slow down the Cowboys enough that his Duck Playmakers and huge OL can control the clock...and Game. Just as they did in last year's Sun Bowl...
San Diego's Quallcom Stadium should prove to Oregon's advantage. Note that the Cowboys had 4 road games...outright losses to both Texas and T-Tech and unconvincing wins over Mizzou (28-23) and Colorado (30-17). Oregon won big at OregSt, ArizSt, WashSt, and out-of-conference at Purdue. 2 road losses..CAL & USC!
Oregon schedule shows 5 Bowl teams..AZ already winners, CAL already winners, 1 point loser Boise (TCU)...and USC and Oreg St yet to play. Note that regular season Duck loss to Boise was pre-Masoli QB..
OK St schedule shows Bowlers..."to go" Houston, Texas, T-Tech, and OKLA. And MIZZOU in the books...taken to OT with Northwestern as heavy chalk..in fact, largest favorite this yr!!
DUCKS show a roster of 22 Seniors with Bowl experience, Cowboys 15. Oregon traditionally has come into Bowls with wide-open game plans, gadget plays, and Belotti always a few surprises.
Football is about match-ups, and frankly don't see enough favorable to OkSt to merit them the chalk. Think Ducks have advantages in the trenches, in the stands, Coaching, speed, skilled positions, kicking game, turnover margin, and in the intangible of "wanting to be in THIS game against this opponent". They're coming in cocky, confident, and with a chip-on-their shoulder! Sold short last year, getting sold short again in this one! Might easily be wrong...but just don't see the Cowboys hanging here..
Finally...put this into perspective. The DUCKS final three opponents (Arizona St, Stanford, and AZ) surrendered a defensive average of under 5.5 yds per play this season. OREGON averaged 8.8 against this same 3!! They're healthy and they're peaking at the right time...
Parameters of our SYSTEM actually favor Oregon by 8.95 points. Additionally, two very significant Bowl angles fit the DUCKS here. And throw-in a strong "fade" angle (already hit once with FAU over CMU) vs. OkSt...
And lastly, one other similarity with last year's Sun Bowl. We used the Ducks as our GAME OF THE YEAR in '07. Guess what...coming right back with them...
We locked in early at +3..and don't think the points really much of an issue here!!
OREGON DUCKS ***2008 BOWL SELECTION OF THE YEAR
The Cowboys last 8 games show them a solid "stat-loser" in 5 of those. Texas Tech hung 56 on 'em, the Sooners 61. Both exploited Defensive weaknesses galore and have to believe the Ducks have the speed and balance to put similar numbers up. And who's gonna make adjustments if your D-Coordinator is gone!? Just think too much to overcome (yet another!) a season-ending ass-whipping by arch-rival OKLA. Expect Belotti to come up with a good-enough Game Plan for his rested "D" to slow down the Cowboys enough that his Duck Playmakers and huge OL can control the clock...and Game. Just as they did in last year's Sun Bowl...
San Diego's Quallcom Stadium should prove to Oregon's advantage. Note that the Cowboys had 4 road games...outright losses to both Texas and T-Tech and unconvincing wins over Mizzou (28-23) and Colorado (30-17). Oregon won big at OregSt, ArizSt, WashSt, and out-of-conference at Purdue. 2 road losses..CAL & USC!
Oregon schedule shows 5 Bowl teams..AZ already winners, CAL already winners, 1 point loser Boise (TCU)...and USC and Oreg St yet to play. Note that regular season Duck loss to Boise was pre-Masoli QB..
OK St schedule shows Bowlers..."to go" Houston, Texas, T-Tech, and OKLA. And MIZZOU in the books...taken to OT with Northwestern as heavy chalk..in fact, largest favorite this yr!!
DUCKS show a roster of 22 Seniors with Bowl experience, Cowboys 15. Oregon traditionally has come into Bowls with wide-open game plans, gadget plays, and Belotti always a few surprises.
Football is about match-ups, and frankly don't see enough favorable to OkSt to merit them the chalk. Think Ducks have advantages in the trenches, in the stands, Coaching, speed, skilled positions, kicking game, turnover margin, and in the intangible of "wanting to be in THIS game against this opponent". They're coming in cocky, confident, and with a chip-on-their shoulder! Sold short last year, getting sold short again in this one! Might easily be wrong...but just don't see the Cowboys hanging here..
Finally...put this into perspective. The DUCKS final three opponents (Arizona St, Stanford, and AZ) surrendered a defensive average of under 5.5 yds per play this season. OREGON averaged 8.8 against this same 3!! They're healthy and they're peaking at the right time...
Parameters of our SYSTEM actually favor Oregon by 8.95 points. Additionally, two very significant Bowl angles fit the DUCKS here. And throw-in a strong "fade" angle (already hit once with FAU over CMU) vs. OkSt...
And lastly, one other similarity with last year's Sun Bowl. We used the Ducks as our GAME OF THE YEAR in '07. Guess what...coming right back with them...
We locked in early at +3..and don't think the points really much of an issue here!!
OREGON DUCKS ***2008 BOWL SELECTION OF THE YEAR
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