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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Anti-JM NBA Thread

    «First Previous 234 ... 232425 Next Last»
    roguewager
    bobsimmons
    smitler
    puppetm716
    WaterHammer
    ...
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    «First Previous 234 ... 232425 Next Last»
     
    roguewager
    roguewager
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    Posted: Nov. 11, 2009 - 9:56 PM ET #26

    [Quote: Originally Posted by smitler] Nuggets covered tonight if you bought 3 points.

    11/11
    JM    A Warriors +4.5/7.5
    AJM A Pacers                                                             

    AJM PACERS WIN 11/11

     

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    [Quote: Originally Posted by smitler] Nuggets covered tonight if you bought 3 points.

    11/11
    JM    A Warriors +4.5/7.5
    AJM A Pacers                                                             

    AJM PACERS WIN 11/11

     

     
    bobsimmons
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    Posted: Nov. 11, 2009 - 10:57 PM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

    Real simple.  Play the opposite of JM (home team) ATS and don't buy any points.

    If you had done that with the 11/11 Golden State A bet you would have a win. I bought two points on the JM bet and lost. Those who got in early and bought the three points had a push.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

    Real simple.  Play the opposite of JM (home team) ATS and don't buy any points.

    If you had done that with the 11/11 Golden State A bet you would have a win. I bought two points on the JM bet and lost. Those who got in early and bought the three points had a push.

     
    smitler
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    Posted: Nov. 11, 2009 - 11:29 PM ET #28

    11/11
    JM    A Warriors +4.5/7.5  LOST by 14, B on Fri 11/13
    AJM A Pacers -4.5

    AJM YTD: 7-0
    Next: 11/13  Caution! Horrible home teams

    JM:    A  Raptors
    AJM:  A Clippers 1-4 ats at home this season

    JM:    A Mavs
    AJM:  A Twolves 2-3 ats at home this season

    JM:    A Tblazers
    AJM:  A Hornets 1-2 ats at home this season
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    11/11
    JM    A Warriors +4.5/7.5  LOST by 14, B on Fri 11/13
    AJM A Pacers -4.5

    AJM YTD: 7-0
    Next: 11/13  Caution! Horrible home teams

    JM:    A  Raptors
    AJM:  A Clippers 1-4 ats at home this season

    JM:    A Mavs
    AJM:  A Twolves 2-3 ats at home this season

    JM:    A Tblazers
    AJM:  A Hornets 1-2 ats at home this season
     
    bobsimmons
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2009 - 6:18 AM ET #29

    Today's anti-JM system plays

    11/13 Golden State
    N.Y. Knicks [B}


    11/13 Toronto
    L.A. Clippers  [A]

     

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    Today's anti-JM system plays

    11/13 Golden State
    N.Y. Knicks [B}


    11/13 Toronto
    L.A. Clippers  [A]

     

     
    bobsimmons
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2009 - 6:26 AM ET #30

    Perhaps using a labby with these anti-JM plays would be useful also since you do not buy any points with the anti-JM system?

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100563169

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    Perhaps using a labby with these anti-JM plays would be useful also since you do not buy any points with the anti-JM system?

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100563169

     
    bobsimmons
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2009 - 6:34 AM ET #31

    The reason the anti-JM system may work and backtesting may not provide a prediction of the future is that the JM system is being used now by so many people and the books are setting the lines in response to the JM system and that is why you are winning now with the anti-JM system and in the past the anti-JM system would not have worked because the lines were not being set in the past in response to the JM sytem.

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    The reason the anti-JM system may work and backtesting may not provide a prediction of the future is that the JM system is being used now by so many people and the books are setting the lines in response to the JM system and that is why you are winning now with the anti-JM system and in the past the anti-JM system would not have worked because the lines were not being set in the past in response to the JM sytem.

     
    smitler
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2009 - 11:39 AM ET #32

    bobsimmons Warriors/Knicks is not a play because Indiana covered the A game, series over.
    Clippers are a  AJM V1.0 play
    Twolves and Hornets are AJM V2.0 plays
    I'm cutting my wager in half for these bad home teams.
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    bobsimmons Warriors/Knicks is not a play because Indiana covered the A game, series over.
    Clippers are a  AJM V1.0 play
    Twolves and Hornets are AJM V2.0 plays
    I'm cutting my wager in half for these bad home teams.
     
    bobsimmons
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2009 - 5:48 PM ET #33

    Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

    bobsimmons Warriors/Knicks is not a play because Indiana covered the A game, series over.

    Sir:  You should tell J.M. that the Warrior/Knicks is not a play because I got this play from J.M. himself in the email he sent out to me and it was a B play.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

    bobsimmons Warriors/Knicks is not a play because Indiana covered the A game, series over.

    Sir:  You should tell J.M. that the Warrior/Knicks is not a play because I got this play from J.M. himself in the email he sent out to me and it was a B play.

     
    smitler
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2009 - 6:53 PM ET #34

    BS these are anti-J.M. picks!!!!!!  You know, like opposite. Of course the Warriors are a "B" J.M. play because they lost the "A" game.
    The AJM "A" bet covered and that was the Pacers.
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    BS these are anti-J.M. picks!!!!!!  You know, like opposite. Of course the Warriors are a "B" J.M. play because they lost the "A" game.
    The AJM "A" bet covered and that was the Pacers.
     
    puppetm716
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    Posted: Nov. 14, 2009 - 2:23 AM ET #35

    Smitler,

    People are so excited about wagering and posting, they aren't seeing or understanding what is really going on.

    "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink."

    Best of Luck

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    Smitler,

    People are so excited about wagering and posting, they aren't seeing or understanding what is really going on.

    "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink."

    Best of Luck

     
    smitler
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    Posted: Nov. 14, 2009 - 11:15 AM ET #36

    Here ya P716.

    We were all warned about last night.  Great night for JM.  Not so for AJM.  Hopefully all went small or better yet skipped them all together.
    11/14
    AJM:  B The play is Bobcats at home against TBlazers.
    11/15
    AJM:  B The play is Pistons at home against Mavs.
    AJM:  B The play is Suns at home against Raptors.

    Remember all JM A bets covered last night. These are continuations of the opposite.
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    Here ya P716.

    We were all warned about last night.  Great night for JM.  Not so for AJM.  Hopefully all went small or better yet skipped them all together.
    11/14
    AJM:  B The play is Bobcats at home against TBlazers.
    11/15
    AJM:  B The play is Pistons at home against Mavs.
    AJM:  B The play is Suns at home against Raptors.

    Remember all JM A bets covered last night. These are continuations of the opposite.
     
    WaterHammer
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    Posted: Nov. 15, 2009 - 9:52 AM ET #37

    My thought is you would do better if you skipped JM's (a) game.  The reason is he wins most of them.  His record last year was.......

    58 (a) wins
    17 (b) wins
    5   (c) wins

    My thoughts are your putting yourself in a hole going opposite the (a) plays.......Up your bets and start after the (a) games and chase the 2nd and 3rd games.

    This year alone I think he has won every (a) game, but one.
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    My thought is you would do better if you skipped JM's (a) game.  The reason is he wins most of them.  His record last year was.......

    58 (a) wins
    17 (b) wins
    5   (c) wins

    My thoughts are your putting yourself in a hole going opposite the (a) plays.......Up your bets and start after the (a) games and chase the 2nd and 3rd games.

    This year alone I think he has won every (a) game, but one.
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Nov. 15, 2009 - 10:27 PM ET #38

    The AJM system is on the ropes.
    11/16
    AJM:  C The play is Hawks at home against TBlazers.
    AJM:  C The play is Bucks at home against Mavs.
    11/17
    AJM:  C The play is Nuggets at home against Raptors.
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    The AJM system is on the ropes.
    11/16
    AJM:  C The play is Hawks at home against TBlazers.
    AJM:  C The play is Bucks at home against Mavs.
    11/17
    AJM:  C The play is Nuggets at home against Raptors.
     
    gasman33
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    Posted: Nov. 15, 2009 - 10:31 PM ET #39

    Quote Originally Posted by WaterHammer:

    My thought is you would do better if you skipped JM's (a) game.  The reason is he wins most of them.  His record last year was.......

    58 (a) wins
    17 (b) wins
    5   (c) wins

    My thoughts are your putting yourself in a hole going opposite the (a) plays.......Up your bets and start after the (a) games and chase the 2nd and 3rd games.

    This year alone I think he has won every (a) game, but one.

     

    ....that is an EXCELLENT idea

    ...and an excellent avatar...

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    Quote Originally Posted by WaterHammer:

    My thought is you would do better if you skipped JM's (a) game.  The reason is he wins most of them.  His record last year was.......

    58 (a) wins
    17 (b) wins
    5   (c) wins

    My thoughts are your putting yourself in a hole going opposite the (a) plays.......Up your bets and start after the (a) games and chase the 2nd and 3rd games.

    This year alone I think he has won every (a) game, but one.

     

    ....that is an EXCELLENT idea

    ...and an excellent avatar...

     
    puppetm716
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    Posted: Nov. 15, 2009 - 11:58 PM ET #40

    The only thing you guys are forgetting.

     

    The AJM hasn't been backtested for A,B,C wins. If JM has won on the "C"  it means unless the 3 points came into affect, those games will be AJM losses.  Any JM wins A,B,C which won buying the points will still be AJM losses

    As mentioned in an earlier post, I backtested only a handful of teams and found 7 AJM losses (where the JM team won the 3 games by the regular pointspread.) and I hadn't even gone thru half of the league.

    I just don't think it is as easy as it is made to seem.

    It will be interesting to monitor how the system pans out as the season moves forward.

    Best of Luck

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    The only thing you guys are forgetting.

     

    The AJM hasn't been backtested for A,B,C wins. If JM has won on the "C"  it means unless the 3 points came into affect, those games will be AJM losses.  Any JM wins A,B,C which won buying the points will still be AJM losses

    As mentioned in an earlier post, I backtested only a handful of teams and found 7 AJM losses (where the JM team won the 3 games by the regular pointspread.) and I hadn't even gone thru half of the league.

    I just don't think it is as easy as it is made to seem.

    It will be interesting to monitor how the system pans out as the season moves forward.

    Best of Luck

     
    roguewager
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    Posted: Nov. 16, 2009 - 12:18 AM ET #41

    Quote Originally Posted by puppetm716:

    The only thing you guys are forgetting.

     

    The AJM hasn't been backtested for A,B,C wins. If JM has won on the "C"  it means unless the 3 points came into affect, those games will be AJM losses.  Any JM wins A,B,C which won buying the points will still be AJM losses

    As mentioned in an earlier post, I backtested only a handful of teams and found 7 AJM losses (where the JM team won the 3 games by the regular pointspread.) and I hadn't even gone thru half of the league.

    I just don't think it is as easy as it is made to seem.

    It will be interesting to monitor how the system pans out as the season moves forward.

    Best of Luck

    I fully understand this " I backtested only a handful of teams and found 7 AJM losses (where the JM team won the 3 games by the regular pointspread.) and I hadn't even gone thru half of the league"

    But your first paragraph confuses me. If we are chasing the AJM teams then the only eventual losses are  when the JM team wins all 3 games with regular spreads.  All others will be eventual AJM winners. If it took a C bet to win a JM game then the AJM was a winner at the A level. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by puppetm716:

    The only thing you guys are forgetting.

     

    The AJM hasn't been backtested for A,B,C wins. If JM has won on the "C"  it means unless the 3 points came into affect, those games will be AJM losses.  Any JM wins A,B,C which won buying the points will still be AJM losses

    As mentioned in an earlier post, I backtested only a handful of teams and found 7 AJM losses (where the JM team won the 3 games by the regular pointspread.) and I hadn't even gone thru half of the league.

    I just don't think it is as easy as it is made to seem.

    It will be interesting to monitor how the system pans out as the season moves forward.

    Best of Luck

    I fully understand this " I backtested only a handful of teams and found 7 AJM losses (where the JM team won the 3 games by the regular pointspread.) and I hadn't even gone thru half of the league"

    But your first paragraph confuses me. If we are chasing the AJM teams then the only eventual losses are  when the JM team wins all 3 games with regular spreads.  All others will be eventual AJM winners. If it took a C bet to win a JM game then the AJM was a winner at the A level. 

     
    smitler
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    Posted: Nov. 16, 2009 - 10:11 AM ET #42

    We shall see how the C games go and maybe come up with some kind of filter like buying 9 points on the C games or something like that.
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    We shall see how the C games go and maybe come up with some kind of filter like buying 9 points on the C games or something like that.
     
    puppetm716
    puppetm716
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    Posted: Nov. 16, 2009 - 11:29 AM ET #43

    Rogue,

     

    You are correct, Originally didn't have the 1st parargraph in and began overthinking. My Bad. Thank you for helping me clarify.

    I like everyone am just trying to find the best way to make this work.

    There will be some JM wins which would also be AJM wins at A level.  The only way AJM will lose a series is when JM wager wins all 3 games without buying the points which happened more often than I would have thought.

    Like Smitler stated lets see hopw it plays out and we can all learn.

    Best of Luck to all.

     

     

     

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    Rogue,

     

    You are correct, Originally didn't have the 1st parargraph in and began overthinking. My Bad. Thank you for helping me clarify.

    I like everyone am just trying to find the best way to make this work.

    There will be some JM wins which would also be AJM wins at A level.  The only way AJM will lose a series is when JM wager wins all 3 games without buying the points which happened more often than I would have thought.

    Like Smitler stated lets see hopw it plays out and we can all learn.

    Best of Luck to all.

     

     

     

     
    cadneyair22
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    Posted: Nov. 16, 2009 - 1:03 PM ET #44

    With the last 18 plays (trios) last season there were 2 chases that game up losses and of course jm didn't lose. I like the anti system but it does lose. you can get more wins if you play all the games. 
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    With the last 18 plays (trios) last season there were 2 chases that game up losses and of course jm didn't lose. I like the anti system but it does lose. you can get more wins if you play all the games. 
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Nov. 16, 2009 - 6:59 PM ET #45

    Since these are two C bets personally gonna tease them with 4 pts.
    What the hell.  They both have to win to be successful anyway.
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    Since these are two C bets personally gonna tease them with 4 pts.
    What the hell.  They both have to win to be successful anyway.
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Nov. 16, 2009 - 10:50 PM ET #46

    Hawks
    Bucks Bucks almost pulled it out.

    You won if you did the 4 point teaser.

    AJM YTD:  8-1 with a C game tomorrow Raptors at Nuggets. 

    Get on this spread tonight or asap because the line will more than likely increase for the home team after opening.

    I think this system will get stronger as the season grinds on because teams like Dallas will get tired and end up sucking on the road.  I hate Dallas.  They have lost me more money than any other NBA team except maybe Phoenix.

    Good Luck Tomorrow.
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    Hawks
    Bucks Bucks almost pulled it out.

    You won if you did the 4 point teaser.

    AJM YTD:  8-1 with a C game tomorrow Raptors at Nuggets. 

    Get on this spread tonight or asap because the line will more than likely increase for the home team after opening.

    I think this system will get stronger as the season grinds on because teams like Dallas will get tired and end up sucking on the road.  I hate Dallas.  They have lost me more money than any other NBA team except maybe Phoenix.

    Good Luck Tomorrow.
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Nov. 16, 2009 - 10:59 PM ET #47

    By the way Tuesday 11/17:

    AJM:  C The play is Nuggets at home against the Raptors

    JM:    A Bulls
    AJM:  A Kings

    JM:    A Pistons
    AJM:  A Lakers
     
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    By the way Tuesday 11/17:

    AJM:  C The play is Nuggets at home against the Raptors

    JM:    A Bulls
    AJM:  A Kings

    JM:    A Pistons
    AJM:  A Lakers
     
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Nov. 16, 2009 - 11:00 PM ET #48

    By the way Tuesday 11/17:

    AJM:  C The play is Nuggets at home against the Raptors

    JM:    A Bulls
    AJM:  A Kings

    JM:    A Pistons
    AJM:  A Lakers
     
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    By the way Tuesday 11/17:

    AJM:  C The play is Nuggets at home against the Raptors

    JM:    A Bulls
    AJM:  A Kings

    JM:    A Pistons
    AJM:  A Lakers
     
     
    HotShotPicks
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    Posted: Nov. 17, 2009 - 7:16 AM ET #49

    Piston beat the Mavericks if u bought 3 points like I did.
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    Piston beat the Mavericks if u bought 3 points like I did.
     
     
    usakangy
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    Posted: Nov. 17, 2009 - 7:40 AM ET #50

    Here's an idea!   

    AJM system could have a home favorite filter.  Take any JM system play that is a road dog.  That can become an AJM home favorite play.  Elite teams are favored on the road, and have a tendancy to sweep all road games in the series.  I doubt road dogs in JM's system will sweep all games. 

    Also look at how JM's road dogs do in [A] games...  Much like his v2 or v3 MLB system, if a JM road dog covers or wins outright on game A, look to pound the AJM system on the home favorite for the B play - the likelihood of a repeat performance by a road dog should be slim to none. 

    Just some ideas!  I don't have time to track every system, but I can help out where needed. 


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    Here's an idea!   

    AJM system could have a home favorite filter.  Take any JM system play that is a road dog.  That can become an AJM home favorite play.  Elite teams are favored on the road, and have a tendancy to sweep all road games in the series.  I doubt road dogs in JM's system will sweep all games. 

    Also look at how JM's road dogs do in [A] games...  Much like his v2 or v3 MLB system, if a JM road dog covers or wins outright on game A, look to pound the AJM system on the home favorite for the B play - the likelihood of a repeat performance by a road dog should be slim to none. 

    Just some ideas!  I don't have time to track every system, but I can help out where needed. 


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