Posted:
#151
8/2/13 / 8/3/13 Results
OFFICIAL (33-0 YTD)
** 1 L was actually a no-play but will be tracked since it was posted
HOU / MIN (SCR N) - W
KC / NYM (SCR N) - W
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1st Inning Score Chase System
Posted:
#158
Hey All,
I am new to this and was hoping someone might be able to explain this a little bit to me. To my understanding Degen has a nice system to predict no runs 1st inning but how do you interpret the results? I see ABC as in the game in the series and the official record is 33-0 (awesome btw) but I see some of the A,B, or C games have come up as L? Does the record only reflect series W's, not individual game W's?
Sorry for the noob question but this thread has really piqued my interest so I'd really like to understand the logic. Also, I've never done a chase system, so I am assuming you have to wait for an A game to begin?
Thanks for any help.
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Posted:
#159
MrUnlucky
A single win is counted when the A,B, or C game gets a win. If "C" gets a loss it counts as a loss for the system as it was the last chance for this 3 game chase system to get a win. This system as of yet doesn't have a loss on the C game.
Essentially all chase systems are betting that a certain outcome will happen once within 3 games. So once you get that win you stop betting until a new series that fits the system rules comes up.
Most people double their bets after a loss to make sure they make money. In a 3 game chase system you should only have to do this twice. But losing a C game can wipe out your bank roll so be careful. If this system were 33-5 and you were betting since the beginning you be losing money.
A single win is counted when the A,B, or C game gets a win. If "C" gets a loss it counts as a loss for the system as it was the last chance for this 3 game chase system to get a win. This system as of yet doesn't have a loss on the C game.
Essentially all chase systems are betting that a certain outcome will happen once within 3 games. So once you get that win you stop betting until a new series that fits the system rules comes up.
Most people double their bets after a loss to make sure they make money. In a 3 game chase system you should only have to do this twice. But losing a C game can wipe out your bank roll so be careful. If this system were 33-5 and you were betting since the beginning you be losing money.
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Posted:
#166
Quote Originally Posted by cofo04:
Just a heads up, Cle/Det is NOT a system play. It is a 4 game series and does not qualify. Just as Tb/Ari was not because it is a 2 game series.
Just a heads up, Cle/Det is NOT a system play. It is a 4 game series and does not qualify. Just as Tb/Ari was not because it is a 2 game series.
Not sure if that is true, but that is why I only take the "NO" bets. Remember, even the best team (COL) only scores in the first inning 36% of the time.
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Posted:
#167
"I then look for a total of 64% or greater for all 3 categories to initiate a 3 game chase (no 2 game series)"
Says nothing about 4 game series but I have assumed if you don't use a 2 game series you wouldn't use a 4 game series either.
I've played all and have not lost according to the rules. No 2 or 4 game series = Zero loses.
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Posted:
#168
Quote Originally Posted by cofo04:
"I then look for a total of 64% or greater for all 3 categories to initiate a 3 game chase (no 2 game series)"
Says nothing about 4 game series but I have assumed if you don't use a 2 game series you wouldn't use a 4 game series either.
I've played all and have not lost according to the rules. No 2 or 4 game series = Zero loses.
Wrong assumption. You don't play a two game series only because there are not three games to play a full chase. No reason not to play a four game chase...even have a chance to play a D bet if necessary.
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Posted:
#169
Hey guys - yes we play 4 game series, but we do not play 2 game series - so unfortunately this is recorded as a LOSS. Maybe through backtesting it may prove we should omit 4 game series - but for now we have to mark it as a loss. So play the rest of the posts at your own risk - right now it's still profitable - the unit loss for that last series is probably around ~10 units, but I don't want you guys to lose your profit so play at your own risk as this system has NOT been backtested.
8/7/13 Results
OFFICIAL (34-1 YTD)
DET / CLE (SCR Y) - C Bet - L
8/8/13 Plays
No Plays
* but since it's a 4 game series - if you have balls of steel you could try a D bet - I may try to recoup some losses maybe just bet it as an A
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Posted:
#171
Quote Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:
Not sure if that is true, but that is why I only take the "NO" bets. Remember, even the best team (COL) only scores in the first inning 36% of the time.
Not sure if that is true, but that is why I only take the "NO" bets. Remember, even the best team (COL) only scores in the first inning 36% of the time.
I did a little checking and for the year it's almost 50-50 on if a run is scored in the 1st inning. I looked at all games and it's 50.6% NO for the season. Numbers are close as I did this by hand, but the point is you're looking at a 50/50 proposition each time with no filters.
Looking at my post #103, the breakdown for the first 25 official series works out to 23 YES, 23 NO on all games bet in those chases. Not sure what it's been after that, I haven't tracked it. While betting on Yes - 11 Yes, 9 NO, while betting NO - 14 NO, 12 Yes. Barely above 50%.
Given that, I was wondering if this proposition would work well betting the +Odds when available. I'd think anytime you have a 50% chance of winning and getting odds there has to be a decent play there somewhere. The 3 game chase does give you 3 opportunities to hit a 50/50 proposition though. I do like those odds as well.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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Posted:
#172
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:
I did a little checking and for the year it's almost 50-50 on if a run is scored in the 1st inning. I looked at all games and it's 50.6% NO for the season. Numbers are close as I did this by hand, but the point is you're looking at a 50/50 proposition each time with no filters.
Looking at my post #103, the breakdown for the first 25 official series works out to 23 YES, 23 NO on all games bet in those chases. Not sure what it's been after that, I haven't tracked it. While betting on Yes - 11 Yes, 9 NO, while betting NO - 14 NO, 12 Yes. Barely above 50%.
Given that, I was wondering if this proposition would work well betting the +Odds when available. I'd think anytime you have a 50% chance of winning and getting odds there has to be a decent play there somewhere. The 3 game chase does give you 3 opportunities to hit a 50/50 proposition though. I do like those odds as well.
I did a little back testing for 2012 and I came up with about 53/47 Y/N, so I would agree with your 50/50 assessment.
I also looked at 1st inning scores for a series.
-Out of 782 series, 103 series (13%) had ALL Y games in the series and 80 (10%) had ALL N games.
-Also, after a series goes all games with either ALL Y or ALL N the next series will be ALL Y or ALL N about 12% of the time.
I will try to plug my analysis into other seasons to see if the numbers hold true, but my guess is that they will.
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Posted:
#173
Dan and cappervin
I think you guys are looking at it the wrong way. My point in post #166 was pointing out that INDIVIDUAL teams themselves do not score in the first most the time. This does not mean to take NO every single time as you would lose 50% of the time.
Remember, its easier to play bad than it is to play good. This is why I think taking NO when bad teams play each other is a safer bet than taking YES when 2 good teams face off.
I guess what I'm trying to say is I would have more confidence in taking HOU vs TEX (worst 2) as a NO than COL vs STL (best 2) as a YES. Maybe I'm wrong.
HOU vs TEX: (so far): 7 NO to 3 YES and never lost a 3 game chase as a NO bet this year.
COL vs STL: 3 NO to 0 YES. They play each other more later...
Just some food for thought in my humble opinion.
Pitching match ups across 3 games is also a filter I have been trying to implement and have not had the time as of yet. Next season hopefully.
I think you guys are looking at it the wrong way. My point in post #166 was pointing out that INDIVIDUAL teams themselves do not score in the first most the time. This does not mean to take NO every single time as you would lose 50% of the time.
Remember, its easier to play bad than it is to play good. This is why I think taking NO when bad teams play each other is a safer bet than taking YES when 2 good teams face off.
I guess what I'm trying to say is I would have more confidence in taking HOU vs TEX (worst 2) as a NO than COL vs STL (best 2) as a YES. Maybe I'm wrong.
HOU vs TEX: (so far): 7 NO to 3 YES and never lost a 3 game chase as a NO bet this year.
COL vs STL: 3 NO to 0 YES. They play each other more later...
Just some food for thought in my humble opinion.
Pitching match ups across 3 games is also a filter I have been trying to implement and have not had the time as of yet. Next season hopefully.
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Posted:
#174
NoSoLucky, I get what you are saying. I was just backing up Degan's stats and sharing some of my own. After playing along with this system for the past month I actually was leaning towards only playing the NO as well. NO trends by individual teams are far more prolonged than YES trends and the lines for NO are always a bit steeper than YES. The line-makers know what they are doing, right?
I am filing this for next season as well as football is upon us and soon after basketball and hockey. With that said, does anyone have an early season NFL system with good results?
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