Posted:
#26
YTD 12-0 (have not back tested yet)
6/22/13
OFFICIAL
TEX / STL (SCR N) - B BET - L
UNOFFICIAL
OAK / SEA (SCR N) - B BET - W
ATL / MIL (SCR N) - B BET - W
6/23/13
OFFICIAL
TEX / STL (SCR N) - C BET
0
1st Inning Score Chase System
Posted:
#35
YTD 17-0 (have not back tested yet)
6/28/13
OFFICIAL
CIN / TEX (SCR N) - A Bet
LAA / HOU (SCR N) - A Bet
STL / OAK (SCR N) - A Bet
UNOFFICIAL
NYY / BAL (SCR N) - A Bet
WAS / NYM (SCR N) - A Bet
ARI / ATL (SCR Y) - A Bet
Here are 2 plays that i'm on the fence about - for CHC / SEA - i'm taking the "A" game off - due to the pitcher matchup - both are in top 10 in Sagarin Rankings - may jump on tomorrow if goes to B bet, and I missed an unofficial play on KC / MIN which would have been an "A" game win but since it's a 4 game series - may chase the last 3 games
CHC / SEA (SCR Y) - A Bet (TAKE A BET OFF)
KC / MIN (SCR N) - A BET (4 game series - missed A Bet)
0
Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by 730champ:
have you tracked unofficial record?
have you tracked unofficial record?
i'll have to go back through the thread - what makes a play unofficial it's usually one stat that is off by a % point or so. So a good example would be NYY / BAL (SCR N) in 1st for today
Totals
2013 - 53.1% scr in 1st
Last 3 - 0% scr in 1st
Hm/Away - 57.9% scr in 1st
Individual Team Stats
2013 - NYY 23.1% / BAL 30%
Last 3 - NYY 0% / BAL 0%
Hm / Away - NYY 29.7% / BAL 28.2%
So in this instance - everything is a go except the TOTAL hm/away stat is not under 55%
All other Total Stats are under 55% and Individual Team Stats are under 33% - so since it's only one stat that is off by a few % points - I made it an unofficial play.
It would very helpful to really dig in and backtest to come up with the optimal Individual and Team % to use. It's just so tedious and time consuming.
0
Posted:
#39
YTD 21-0 (have not back tested yet)
6/28/13 - RESULTS
OFFICIAL
CIN / TEX (SCR N) - A Bet - L
LAA / HOU (SCR N) - A Bet - W
STL / OAK (SCR N) - A Bet - W
UNOFFICIAL
NYY / BAL (SCR N) - A Bet - L
WAS / NYM (SCR N) - A Bet - W
ARI / ATL (SCR Y) - A Bet - W
OPTIONAL
KC / MIN (SCR N) - A BET (4 game series - missed A Bet) - L
CHC / SEA (SCR Y) - A Bet (TAKE A BET OFF)
0
Posted:
#44
YTD 22-1 (have not back tested yet)
A Games - 14 wins
B games - 5 wins
C games - 3 wins
1 Losses
Our first loss since tracking - good news
1) it was an unofficial play
2) it cost us ~9.1 units so we are still up at 22-1 by ~12 units
What we learned so far:
1) A series loss factoring in average odds is ~ a 9-10 unit loss
2) 60% A game win % - betting only A games would yield 14 units won and ~11 units lost
3) If we did a 2 game chase (A+B Only) - we would have won 19 units and lost 16 units
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