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1st Inning Score Chase System

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Posted: #1
In a quest to find other angles for systems - I had a thought on chasing 1st inning scores (by either team)

So I created a preliminary spreadsheet to test things out and to solicit feedback - if it does well for a week or so - I'll see if I can backtest and as always hopefully we can think of things to make it better.

You can download the automated spreadsheet from here:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5dydT9Oe6JbNV9tQ0wyamFUMlE/edit?usp=sharing

I basically pull the 1st inning score % for each team for 2013, last 3 and Home/Away from teamrankings.com

I then look for a total of 64% or greater for all 3 categories to initiate a 3 game chase (no 2 game series)

This will be a test for a week or so - and if it works out - I may be looking for volunteers to run the thread while I work on improvements - lol - you guys know my track record for threads. 


 
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Posted: #2
YTD 0-0 (have not back tested yet)

6/14/13

BAL/BOS B
LAD/PIT A
ARI/SDG A

unofficial
SF/ATL A



 
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Posted: #3
So just to get the conversation started.  Right now I am just looking at 2013, Last 3, and Hm/Away 1st inning score % for each team and if over 64% total for all 3 I initiate a chase.

Other thoughts

1) Get 1st inning score % for series - meaning if a team scores in the 1st inning - 2 out of 3 games in a 3 games series - it counts as a 1st inning score and we would look to play if that % is over 55%?  We would use this as a filter - we would not want to bet on teams that don't score in 1st inning for most of the series they play
2) Get the pitcher rotation of the series and look at the pitcher 1st inning score %'s - not sure what threashold to use for a filter - but we would use this to make sure that the pitchers in all games have a propensity to allow runs in the 1st inning
3) Get % to score in 1st inning in A+B games - we would also use this as a filter - we would want to filter teams that go to C games.

Just some thoughts - but no point in implementing yet - until we get a feel for the win rate.  


 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

So just to get the conversation started.  Right now I am just looking at 2013, Last 3, and Hm/Away 1st inning score % for each team and if over 64% total for all 3 I initiate a chase.

Other thoughts

1) Get 1st inning score % for series - meaning if a team scores in the 1st inning - 2 out of 3 games in a 3 games series - it counts as a 1st inning score and we would look to play if that % is over 55%?  We would use this as a filter - we would not want to bet on teams that don't score in 1st inning for most of the series they play
2) Get the pitcher rotation of the series and look at the pitcher 1st inning score %'s - not sure what threashold to use for a filter - but we would use this to make sure that the pitchers in all games have a propensity to allow runs in the 1st inning
3) Get % to score in 1st inning in A+B games - we would also use this as a filter - we would want to filter teams that go to C games.

Just some thoughts - but no point in implementing yet - until we get a feel for the win rate.  




hmm intresting let me know what happens when you back test it!
 
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Posted: #5
there was a guy smitler who had a whole chase for yes or no score first inning... should be in this forum somewhere
 
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Posted: #6
I looked up Smitler's thread and to be honest I have no idea how his system won or the theory behind it. He basically took the highest 1st inning DOGS on the board for the day and chased it for a win. I have no idea how that worked - seems like blind luck. He didn't look at any stats that would indicate a teams propensity to either score or not score in the first inning.
 
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Posted: #7
YTD 2-0 (have not back tested yet)

6/14/13

BAL/BOS (Y) B - L
LAD/PIT (Y) A - L
ARI/SDG (Y) A - W

unofficial
SF/ATL (Y) A - W


6/15/13


BAL/BOS (Y) C
LAD/PIT (Y) B
 
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Posted: #8
YTD 2-0 (have not back tested yet)

6/14/13

BAL/BOS (Y) B - L
LAD/PIT (Y) A - L
ARI/SDG (Y) A - W

unofficial
SF/ATL (Y) A - W


6/15/13


BAL/BOS (Y) C
LAD/PIT (Y) B
 
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Posted: #9
YTD 4-0 (have not back tested yet)

6/15/13


BAL/BOS (Y) C - W
LAD/PIT (Y) B - W

C bet in the BOS / BAL series was not exactly what I would want but it tuned out ok
 
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Posted: #10
Every series that Balt/Bost played in 2012 to now scored in the 1st inning at east once I felt ok with "C" bet today
 
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Posted: #11
Great idea Degen.  I started to track this earlier this week a little after seeing Tinfoil's MLB Updates reference the projected starters' stats in reference to whether they have been scored on in the first inning.  A couple things have jumped out.  First, since the beginning of June, about 50% of teams playing that day score in the first inning... odd right?  Second, this is all based on the starting pitcher and the opponents' top of the lineup.  I am thinking two pitchers must have a high combined total games, less than 30% scored on in the first inning, and the opponents must be scoring less than 30% of the time for it to be a play... 
Just a few thoughts.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by shavewithmace:

Great idea Degen.  I started to track this earlier this week a little after seeing Tinfoil's MLB Updates reference the projected starters' stats in reference to whether they have been scored on in the first inning.  A couple things have jumped out.  First, since the beginning of June, about 50% of teams playing that day score in the first inning... odd right?  Second, this is all based on the starting pitcher and the opponents' top of the lineup.  I am thinking two pitchers must have a high combined total games, less than 30% scored on in the first inning, and the opponents must be scoring less than 30% of the time for it to be a play... 
Just a few thoughts.

Shave - not sure what you mean by this.  I am having trouble figuring out what you mean by high combined games and less than 30% scored on 1st inning - seems like it's contradicting - unless I am misunderstanding
 
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Posted: #13
YTD 4-0 (have not back tested yet)

6/17/13

COL / TOR (SCR Y) - A BET
CHC / STL (SCR Y) - A BET
OAK/ TEX (SCR N) - A BET

 
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Posted: #14
YTD 5-0 (have not back tested yet)

6/17/13

COL / TOR (SCR Y) - A BET - L 
CHC / STL (SCR Y) - A BET - L
OAK/ TEX (SCR N) - A BET - W

 

6/18/13

COL / TOR (SCR Y) - B BET

CHC / STL (SCR Y) - B BET

 
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Posted: #15
YTD 7-0 (have not back tested yet)


6/18/13

COL / TOR (SCR Y) - B BET - W
CHC / STL (SCR Y) - B BET - W
 
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Posted: #16
 
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Posted: #17
did you stop tracking these?
 
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Posted: #18
YTD 7-0 (have not back tested yet)


6/20/13

OFFICIAL

MIA / SF (SCR N) - A BET

UNOFFICIAL

LAD/ SDG (SCR Y) - A BET
BOS / DET (SCR Y) - A BET

The reason for the unofficial plays is the stats are close but not enough to make it a play

Right now I look the rules i'm going by is

SCR Y PLAY - Must have a total of 63% or more for 2013, last 3 and Hm/Awy
SCR N PLAY - Must have a total of 55% or less for  2013, last 3 and Hm/Awy AND (All Individual team % must be less than 33%)

 
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Posted: #19
YTD RECORD - (have not back tested yet)

OFFICIAL 6-0 
UNOFFICIAL 1-0

Right now I look the rules i'm going by is

SCR Y PLAY - Must have a total of 63% or more for 2013, last 3 and Hm/Awy
SCR N PLAY - Must have a total of 55% or less for  2013, last 3 and Hm/Awy AND (All Individual team % must be less than 33%)
 
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Posted: #20
YTD 7-0 (have not back tested yet)


6/20/13

OFFICIAL

MIA / SF (SCR N) - A BET - W

UNOFFICIAL

LAD/ SDG (SCR Y) - A BET - W
BOS / DET (SCR Y) - A BET - L
 
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Posted: #21
YTD 9-0 (have not back tested yet)


6/21/13

OFFICIAL

BAL / TOR (SCR Y) - A BET
TEX / STL (SCR N) - A BET

UNOFFICIAL

BOS / DET (SCR Y) - B BET
OAK / SEA (SCR N) - A BET
ATL / MIL (SCR N) - A BET
CIN / ARI (SCR Y) - A BET

 
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Posted: #22
 
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Posted: #23
YTD 9-0 (have not back tested yet)


6/21/13 Results

OFFICIAL

BAL / TOR (SCR Y) - A BET - W
TEX / STL (SCR N) - A BET - L

UNOFFICIAL

BOS / DET (SCR Y) - B BET - W
OAK / SEA (SCR N) - A BET - L
ATL / MIL (SCR N) - A BET - L
CIN / ARI (SCR Y) - A BET - W
 
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Posted: #24
YTD 12-0 (have not back tested yet)


6/22/13

OFFICIAL

TEX / STL (SCR N) - B BET

UNOFFICIAL

OAK / SEA (SCR N) - B BET
ATL / MIL (SCR N) - B BET
 
 
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Posts: 105
Posted: #25
I get a debug error when I run the spreadsheet 
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