Red Card Goal Tracking Thread #2

River Plate over 1.5 +175 (0-1)

Toluca over 4.5 -105 (2-1)

308/248 +$5,766

Banga over 3.5 +110 (1-1)

Odd II over 3.5 -110 (1-1)

Zamora II over 3.5 -110 (2-1)

Flamengo W over 1.5 -105 (0-1)

Caracas over 2.5 +155 (0-1)

311/251 +$5,822

Little AI help to calculate my current average juice per bet. Not too bad but goes to show how important trying to reduce the juice is, which many of us already know.

“Average juice ˜ -101 (about -100.6), far lighter than the standard -110.

Here’s the math:

•Total bets: 311 + 251 = 562

•If every win paid a clean $100 (no juice at all), profit would be: (311 - 251) × $100 = $6,000

•Your actual profit is $5,822 — a shortfall of $178 versus the no-vig scenario

That shortfall is spread across your 311 winning bets, so your average payout per win is:

(5,822 + 251×100) / 311 = 30,922 / 311 ˜ $99.43 profit per $100 win

Converting that into American odds (payout of $99.43 on a $100 stake):

10,000 / 99.43 ˜ -100.6

What this means: on average, you’re laying about -101 rather than the standard -110. That translates to needing roughly a 50.1% win rate to break even, versus 52.4% at typical -110 pricing. Your actual win rate is 311/562 = 55.3%, well above that breakeven — which is why you’re up nearly $5,822 despite juice eating into every winning bet.”

APR over 1.5 +100 (1-0)

Arema over 1.5 +100 (1-0)

Respublika over 4.5 +165 (0-3)

313/252 +$5,987

Ishoj over 3.5 -110 (1-1)

FK Auda over 1.5 +100 (1-0)

Bnei Sakhnin over 1.5 +110 (0-0)

FA 2000 over 1.5 +105 (0-0)

Viby IF over 0.5 ET -105

Zvezda over 1.5 -110 (1-0)

314/257 +$5,578

Club Aurora over 2.5 +100 (1-0)

Medellin over 4.5 -110 (1-3)

Tomayapo over 2.5 +115 (1-0)