My Daily Best Bets with Matchup

Fading the Public - NBA - 29 Dec

Results yesterday: 3-0, +3.42
Results so far: 3-0,+3.42

To fade the heavy public favorites I'm playing:

Charlotte Hornets ML @ 2.35

Washington Wizards +10 AH @ 2.03

Golden State Warriors -7 AH @ 2.04

Miami Heat ML @ 2.07

Chicago Bulls +6 AH @ 2.01

Indiana Pacers +13 @ 1.98

New Orleans Pelicans +8 @ 1.99

Atlanta Hawks +16.5 @ 2.02

Cleveland Cavaliers ML @ 2.30

Dallas Mavericks ML @ 2.14

Fading the Public - NHL - 29 Dec

Results yesterday: 0-2, -2u
Results so far: 3-2, +3.59u

Fading (Playing the opposite)

Columbus Blue Jackets ML @ 2.80

Florida Panthers -1.5 AH @ 3.03

New York Rangers ML @ 2.51

Winnipeg Jets ML @ 1.93

Los Angeles Kings +1.5 AH @ 1.80

Fading the Public - Football - 30 Nov

Results yesterday: 5-3, +1.3 units
Results so far: 15-10, +4.38 units

Today I'll be fading (playing the opposite):

Arsenal -1.5 AH - Risking 1.42 units to win 1 unit

West Ham vs Brighton - Under 2.5 Goals - Risking 1.44 units to win 1 unit

Burnley DC - Risking 1.62 units to win 1 unit

Dundee ML - Risking 1.94 units to win 1 unit

Dundee Utd ML - Risking 1.94 units to win 1 unit

Rangers ML & Under 3.5 Goals - Risking 1.54 units to win 1 unit

Hibernian ML - Risking 093 units to win 1 unit

I know I sucked at keeping track, but I intent to keep track of every bet 2026, even if it means less plays.

Manchester City -1.5 AH @ 2.19 with Coolbet

Manchester City arrives with a six-game winning streak in the league, averaging 2.88 goals per game and not are Sunderland missing 8 players, they are missing key center-back Dan Ballard , which leaves them vulnerable to Erling Haaland's aerial attacks.

POD

Results so far 2026: 0-1, -1 unit

Today:

Como ML @ 1.80 with Bet365

Como is one of three teams that are undefeated at home.

Udinese usually have difficulties when playing away from home, losing 4 of their last 5 road matches while conceding 12 goals in 5 away fixtures. Como also defeated Udinese 4-1 in their most recent meeting.

Also fading:

To fade those I'm LAYING those bets at a betting exchange like Betfair or Smarkets:

• Laying: Wolves ML - Risking 1.68 units to win 1 unit
• Laying: Arsenal ML + Under 3.5 Goals - Risking 1.56 units to win 1 unit
• Laying: Celta Vigo ML + Under 3.5 Goals - Risking 1.8 units to win 1 unit
• Laying: Atalanta vs Roma Under 2.5 Goals - Risking 0.73 units to win 1 unit
• Laying: Roma +0.5 AH - Risking 0.75 units to win 1 unit

POD

Results so far (2026): 1-1, -0.2 units

Today:

Ipswich Town -1 AH @ 2.07

Theoretically this is the "Banker" of the weekend in British football. The disparity in quality, form, and morale is massive.

...but since it seems that it's going to get 99% postponed the second best is:

Newcastle ML @ 1.66

Newcastle are unbeaten at St. James' Park since September 2025. Crystal Palace are in freefall, winless in six and coming off a 9-0 aggregate scoreline in their last two visits to this stadium

...and the non-British POD

Atletico Madrid ML @ 2.02

Atletico has 8 wins in 10 and historically dominates this H2H.
Real Sociedad struggles in 16th with just 17 points and 4 wins with only 21 goals scored in 17 matches. They also have a new manager and suspensions to key defenders.

I'm back to fading heavy public favorites

NY Rangers Money Line is a Heavy Public Favorite today (Jan 5)

Reasoning why the public favors NY Rangers:

• 5-1 Winter Classic victory over Florida
• Their home record (currently 5-10-3) can't suck forever?
• Utah has been volatile, losing 4 of their last 6 games
• Utah been struggling to generate consistent offense outside of their top line

The Play: Fade the Rangers and PLAY Utah Mammoth ML @ 1.943 with Pinnacle

Heavy Public favorites and short Reasoning Why:

New York Knicks ML
Pistons are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and are missing their defensive anchor, Jalen Duren

Phoenix Suns +8.5 AH
"The market is undervaluing the loss of Sengun and overvaluing the narrative of Kevin Durant's return"

Oklahoma City Thunder -15 AH
Coming off a rare loss, OKC will be motivated to make a statement + Plumlee out

Philadelphia 76ers -14 AH
"Nuggets team with no centers"

The Plays: Fading listed teams and PLAYING:

• Detroit Pistons ML @ 2.02
• Houston Rockets -8.5 @ 2.01
• Charlotte Hornets +15 @ 2.00
• Denver Nuggets +14 @ 2.07

Lines & Odds from Pinnacle Sports

Hockey - Sweden SHL - Jan 6

Timrå IK ML @ 1.62
Timrå managed to drop 2-0 lead with minutes left last game.
Chance to bounce back when facing Örebro that ain't nothing special.

@Da_BetWhiz

 Love your fade the public plays

@Da_BetWhiz

 Tailed at -1.5 for some nice plus money 

Yeah but seem a bit like wrong thread..haha

Results so far (2026): 1-0, +0.94

Heavy Public NHL Favorites & Short Reasoning:

Buffalo Sabres ML

• Vancouver’s offense struggles
• Vancouver defense that 29th in goals allowed
• Buffalo’s penalty kill is elite (2nd in NHL)
• Buffalo recently saw a ten-game winning streak snapped, but will looking to bounce back at home
• Vancouver has a -29 goal differential

Philadelphia Flyers ML

• Flyers are 8-2 as home favorites (L10)
• Anaheim has lost six straight games.

Vegas Golden Knights ML

• Winnipeg are in complete freefall
• Winnipeg has lost nine consecutive games
• Winnipeg is struggling to score (25th in league)

The Plays: Fading listed teams and PLAYING:

• Vancouver Canucks ML @ 2.49
• Anaheim Ducks ML @ 2.29
• Winnipeg Jets ML @ 1.934

Lines & Odds from Pinnacle Sports

Results so far (NBA 2026): 3-1, +2.09

Heavy Public Favorites & Short Reasoning:

Cleveland Cavaliers -6

• Pacers have lost 12 straight games and are statistically the worst team in the Eastern Conference atm.
• Absence of Tyrese Haliburton

Orlando Magic -7

• Wizards sucks big time

Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

• Minnesota just beat Miami by 10 points (125-115) on the road three days ago. Returning home to the Target Center
• The Heat are dealing with a questionable Tyler Herro; if he sits or is limited, Miami lacks the firepower to keep up with Anthony Edwards and Minnesota’s top-10 offense.

Los Angeles Lakers -5

• The Pelicans are in freefall, losing seven straight games often by double digits.
• Lakers has Luka Doncic (leads the league in scoring ) and LeBron James and 7th best offense
• New Orleans ranks 28th in defense (Pelicans' best defender Herb Jones also listed as Questionable)

The Plays: Fading listed teams and PLAYING:

• Indiana Pacers +6 @ 2.06
• Washington Wizards +7 @ 2.05
• Miami Heat +4.5 @ 2.00
• NO Pelicans +5 @ 2.08

Lines & Odds from Pinnacle Sports

Football POD - Results so far: 2-2, - 0.54 units

Today:

Aston Villa ML @ 2.41 with Coolbet

• Palace is missing missing 5-6 starters due to injury (Clyne, Lerma, Doucoure, Kamada, Munoz)
• Chris Richards in DF is unfit
•Playing their 14th game in 41 days, without having enough squad dept

•Villa is 3rd in the league, winning 12 of 13 games, and possesses a fully functioning midfield led by a Morgan Rogers on fire
• Villa is incredible lucky now, lets ride on that until they crash and burn

Live Betting Opportunities

• Man City vs. Brighton: If City fails to score in the first 20-30 minutes, their live odds will drift. Given their probable xG dominance, and the fact that City drew last two games, I don't think Brighton will be able to keep City away from their goal in 90 minutes today.

NHL - Jan 7

Results so far (2026): 1-3, -2.06 units

Heavy Public Favorites & Short Reasoning:

Montreal Canadiens ML

• Montreal returning home after a successful road trip.
• Calgary is a dismal 6-13-2 on the road.
• Calgary ranks 30th in the league in scoring.

The Plays: Fading Montreal and PLAYING:

Calgary Flames ML @ 2.27

Odds from Pinnacle Sports

NBA - Jan 7

Results so far (2026): 5-3, +2.2 units

No Plays for 7th of January

Soccer POD
Results so far (2026): 2-3, -1.54 units

Today:

Arsenal -1 AH @ 1.99 with Coolbet | 2 units

- Arsenal has the leagues best defense (Arsenal xGA 16.2), full squad availability, home dominance (15/15 scoring record)

- Liverpool is not as nearly disciplined, fragile on the road, and missing attackers

Results so far (2026): 1-4, -3.06 units

Heavy Public Favorites & Short Reasoning:

Detroit Red Wings ML

• Vancouver has lost four straight games and struggles defensively (3.50 GA/G)
• Detroit won the last meeting 4-0
• Detroit is 14-8-1 at home and starting John Gibson, who boasts a.932 save percentage in his last 10 games.

Buffalo Sabres ML

• The Rangers are missing their MVP-caliber goalie Shesterkin and top defenseman Fox.
• Buffalo has won 9 of their last 10 games

Pittsburgh Penguins ML

• Pittsburgh has won 5 straight games 5.
• Devils team coming off a 9-0 loss and have a -19 goal differential and struggle to score (2.64 GF/G)

Carolina Hurricanes -1.5

• Anaheim has lost 7 of their last 10 games and allows 3.50 goals per game.
• Carolina is fighting for the top of the Metro division and rarely drops points to teams like Anaheim at home

Edmonton Oilers ML

• Edmonton has the #1 Power Play in the league (33.6%) and has won the last two meetings against Winnipeg.
• Edmonton scores 3.37 goals per game. Winnipeg's defense (3.15 GA/G) is porous.

Colorado Avalanche -1.5

• Colorado is 17-0-2 at home 5 with a +70 goal differential & leads the NHL in scoring with 4.00 goals per game.
• Ottawa is a mediocre road team.

Vegas Golden Knights ML

• Columbus sucks on the road (9-10-3) and allows 3.36 goals per game

The Plays: Fading listed teams and PLAYING:

• Vancouver Canucks ML @ 2.34
• New York Rangers ML @ 2.13
• New Jersey Devils ML @ 1.97
• Anaheim Ducks +1.5 @ 1.74
• Winnipeg Jets ML @ 1.98
• Ottawa Senators +1.5 @ 1.91
• Columbus Blue Jackets @ 2.31
<

NBA - Jan 8 Results so far (2026): 5-3, +2.2 units

Heavy Public Favorites & Short Reasoning:

Charlotte Hornets -4.5

• The Pacers has lost 13 consecutive games and holding an awful 1-16 road record.
• Charlotte has covered the spread in 5 consecutive games.

Miami Heat -7

• Bulls scored only 93 points against Detroit
• The Bulls are 0-1 ATS against Miami
• Bulls are playing second night of a back-to-back, while Miami is rested (last played Jan 6)

Minnesota Timberwolves -2

• Minnesota is 13-6 at home and has won three straight games by double digits.
• Darius Garland might be out

Dallas Mavericks -4.5

Utah played an overtime game against OKC last night, with key starters Markkanen and George playing 40+ minutes.

Teams playing a B2B after an OT loss have a historically low cover rate.

Utah also owns the league's worst defense (127.1 PPG allowed).

The Plays: Fading listed teams and PLAYING:

• Indiana Pacers +4.5 @ 2.00
• Chicago Bulls +7 @ 2.03
• Cleveland Cavaliers +2 @ 2.02
• Utah Jazz +4.5 @ 2.04

Lines & Odds from Pinnacle Sports

NBA - Fading the Public - Results so far (2026): 7-4, +3.24 units

Heavy Public Favorites & Short Reasoning:

Oklahoma City Thunder ML

• Thunder are 31-7
• Their depth and system are far superior to a depleted Grizzlies squad

The Plays: Fading Thunder and PLAYING:

Memphis Grizzlies ML @ 2.69


(Hope the NBA won't crash and burn like NHL..lol)

Results so far (2026): 7-5, +2.24 units

That Grizzlies loss on Friday night was heartbreaking lol, so I skipped yesterday

Heavy Public Favorites & Short Reasoning:

Philadelphia 76ers ML

• The Philadelphia 76ers are finally healthy, boasting a 21-15 record and a four-game road winning streak.
• Toronto missing several starters Poeltl and Barrett OUT, Barnes/Ingram Doubtful/Questionable
• Toronto is too depleted to compete for 48 minutes

New York Knicks ML

• Portland (19-20) is a chaotic, youthful team currently riding a hot streak (won 5 of last 7). However, they remain a sub-.500 team facing a true contender.
• Without Jerami Grant and Matisse Thybulle, Portland lacks elite wing defenders to throw at Brunson or Bridges.
• New York ranks 6th in offensive efficiency and 4th in 3-point making.

Orlando Magic ML

• The Pelicans holds a terrible 3-14 road record and rank 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing over 122 points per game.

The Plays: Fading listed teams and PLAYING:

• New Orleans Pelicans ML @ 3.10
• Toronto Raptors ML @ 2.40
• Portland Trail Blazers ML @ 2.80

Lines & Odds from Pinnacle Sports

...double post

Football 12 Jan

Juventus ML + Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.55

Sevilla va Celta Vigo - BTTS Yes @ 1.97

Paris FC + 2.5 AH @ 1.71

Detroit Red Wings +1.5 AH @ 1.52

Montreal Canadians ML 1.53

Colorado Avalanche -1.5 AH @ 2.07

Philadelphia 76ers -3 @ 1.94

LA Lakers -9.5 AH @ 1.97