Calculated Stats Plays

For many years I only bet soccer no more than 10 minutes before match starts, using in my capping last minute data from projected lineups, line moves and general betting public behavior.
This works good enough for me, I am averaging 15% profit on starting bankroll per month with average 90 wagers per month.
The problems with this approach is that I can not play more wagers for more profit, because I need to be focused at those start times, plus of course such successful long-term betting can not be shared with other bettors.

In the last 6-7 years (except the "covid" period, when we had almost nothing meaningful to bet on) I have tried several times to craft some kind of long term betting strategy/system for soccer, where I can make all the wagers at least 2 hours before game starts. I have lost a lots of time trying this, but nothing worked so far.

Now I will try something new I thought about in the last few weeks.

The odds posted will be from Bet365 if not mentioned otherwise, though I only use Pinnacle and “Bet In Asia” (this is a great brokerage), so I get almost always better or a lot better odds than those at Bet365. I will use this bookie just to make it more easy to follow these plays, if will be proven to be a good thread to follow.

I will post all the scheduled time starts for matches in Central European Time (CET), as when it is possible, the matches will be centered in Europe.
Starting bankroll is 100 units, "U" = Units.

Day 1 / Monday, Jun 16, 2025

Brazil 2: Chapecoense-SC - Ferroviaria @ 00:00, Jun 17
0.6 U: Ferroviaria +0.5 1.70

Colombia 1: Santa Fe - Once Caldas @ 01:15, Jun 17
0.6 U: Once Caldas +0.75 1.73

Chile 1: Deportes Iquique - Everton @ 02:00, Jun 17
0.6 U: Deportes Iquique +0.25 1.68

Ecuador 1: Orense - Macara @ 02:00, Jun 17
0.6 U: Macara +0.75 1.85

Colombia 1: Atl. Nacional - Millonarios @ 03:20, Jun 17
0.6 U: Millonarios +0.75 1.90

Results - Monday

Chapecoense-SC - Ferroviaria => 2:1
0.6 U: Ferroviaria +0.5 1.70 => L 0.6 U

Santa Fe - Once Caldas => 1:0
0.6 U: Once Caldas +0.75 1.73 => L 0.3 U (1/2 stake)

Deportes Iquique - Everton => 1:2
0.6 U: Deportes Iquique +0.25 1.68 => L 0.6 U

Orense - Macara => 1:0
0.6 U: Macara +0.75 1.85 => L 0.3 U (1/2 stake)

Atl. Nacional - Millonarios => 0:1
0.6 U: Millonarios +0.75 1.90 => W 0.54 U

W 1 - L 4 (3) => L 1.26 U

Day 2 / Tuesday, Jun 17, 2025

Algeria 1: ASO Chlef - MC Alger @ 18:30
0.8 U: MC Alger -0.75 1.85 (Pinnacle)

Algeria 1: El Bayadh - Olympique Akbou @ 18:30
0.8 U: El Bayadh -0.5 1.87 (Pinnacle)

Algeria 1: Mostaganem - Kabylie @ 18:30
0.8 U: Mostaganem 0 2.04 (Pinnacle)

Brazil 2: Volta Redonda - Avai @ 00:30, Jun 18
0.8 U: Avai +0.25 1.95

Uruguay 1: Wanderers - Defensor Sp. @ 01:00, Jun 18
0.6 U: Defensor Sp. 0 1.90

Results - Tuesday

ASO Chlef - MC Alger => 0:0
0.8 U: MC Alger -0.75 1.85 => L 0.8 U

El Bayadh - Olympique Akbou => 0:1
0.8 U: El Bayadh -0.5 1.87 => L 0.8 U

Mostaganem - Kabylie => 0:0
0.8 U: Mostaganem 0 2.04 => P

Volta Redonda - Avai => 1:1
0.8 U: Avai +0.25 1.95 => W 0.38 U (1/2 stake)

Wanderers - Defensor Sp. => 0:0
0.6 U: Defensor Sp. 0 1.90 => P

W 1 (0.5) - L 2 - P 2 => L 1.22 U

Overall: W 2 (1.5) - L 6 (5) - P 2 => L 2.48 U

Day 3 / Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 - Part 1

South Korea 1: Daejeon - Gimcheon Sangmu @ 12:30
1.2 U: Gimcheon Sangmu -0.25 1.93

Part 2

Uruguay 1: Danubio - Racing Montevideo @ 20:00
1.2 U: Danubio 0 1.98

Uruguay 1: Montevideo City - Miramar @ 22:30
0.8 U: Miramar +1 1.78

Uruguay 1: Nacional - Juventud @ 01:30
0.6 U: Juventud +1.25 1.73

Ecuador 1: LDU Quito - Barcelona SC @ 02:00, Jun 19
0.6 U: LDU Quito -1 1.90

Results - Wednesday

Daejeon - Gimcheon Sangmu => 0:0
1.2 U: Gimcheon Sangmu -0.25 1.93 => L 0.6 U (1/2 stake)

Danubio - Racing Montevideo => 1:2
1.2 U: Danubio 0 1.98 => L 1.2 U

Montevideo City - Miramar => 0:0
0.8 U: Miramar +1 1.78 => W 0.624 U

Nacional - Juventud => 4:1
0.6 U: Juventud +1.25 1.73 => L 0.6 U

LDU Quito - Barcelona SC => 3:1
0.6 U: LDU Quito -1 1.90 => W 0.54 U

W 2 - L 3 (2.5) => L 1.236 U

Overall: W 4 (3.5) - L 9 (7.5) - P 2 => L 3.716 U

Day 4 / Thursday, Jun 19, 2025

Uruguay 1: Liverpool M. - Penarol @ 20:00
1.4 U: Penarol -0.25 1.80

Colombia 1: Deportes Tolima - Junior @ 23:00
2 U: Deportes Tolima -0.25 1.75

Colombia 1: Once Caldas - Atl. Nacional @ 01:05, Jun 20
0.6 U: Atl. Nacional -0.25 1.85

Colombia 1: America De Cali - Ind. Medellin @ 03:15, Jun 20
0.8 U: Ind. Medellin +0.75 1.90

Colombia 1: Millonarios - Santa Fe @ 03:15, Jun 20
0.6 U: Santa Fe +0.5 1.75

Results - Thursday

Liverpool M. - Penarol => 3:2
1.4 U: Penarol -0.25 1.80 => L 1.4 U

Deportes Tolima - Junior => 2:0
2 U: Deportes Tolima -0.25 1.75 => W 1.50 U

Once Caldas - Atl. Nacional => 1:2
0.6 U: Atl. Nacional -0.25 1.85 => W 0.51 U

America De Cali - Ind. Medellin => 1:1
0.8 U: Ind. Medellin +0.75 1.90 => W 0.72 U

Millonarios - Santa Fe => 1:2
0.6 U: Santa Fe +0.5 1.75 => W 0.45 U

W 4 - L 1 => W 1.78 U

Overall: W 8 (7.5) - L 10 (8.5) - P 2 => L 1.936 U

Day 5 / Friday, Jun 20, 2025

Algeria 1: Constantine - Saoura @ 19:00
2.2 U: Constantine -0.5 1.76 (Pinnacle)

Chile 1: Union La Calera - U. Catolica @ 23:30
1.6 U: U. Catolica 0 1.70

Brazil 2: Botafogo SP - Chapecoense-SC @ 00:00, Jun 21
0.6 U: Botafogo SP 0 1.68

Peru 1: Alianza Huanuco - Cajamarca @ 01:00, Jun 21
0.6 U: Cajamarca +0.75 1.75

Brazil 2: America MG - Criciuma @ 02:35, Jun 21
0.6 U: America MG -0.5 1.91

Results - Friday

Constantine - Saoura => 2:2
2.2 U: Constantine -0.5 1.76 => L 2.2 U

Union La Calera - U. Catolica => 1:1
1.6 U: U. Catolica 0 1.70 => P

Botafogo SP - Chapecoense-SC => 1:0
0.6 U: Botafogo SP 0 1.68 => W 0.408 U

Alianza Huanuco - Cajamarca => 1:2
0.6 U: Cajamarca +0.75 1.75 => W 0.45 U

America MG - Criciuma => 1:1
0.6 U: America MG -0.5 1.91 => L 0.6 U

W 2 - L 2 - P 1 => L 1.902 U

Overall: W 10 (9.5) - L 12 (10.5) - P 3 => L 3.838 U

Day 6 / Saturday, Jun 21, 2025 - Part 1

Japan 1: Kashiwa Reysol - Kyoto @ 12:00
3.8 U: Kashiwa Reysol -0.25 1.65

Japan 1: Kawasaki Frontale - Vissel Kobe @ 12:00
1.8 U: Vissel Kobe +0.25 1.65

Japan 1: Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse @ 12:00
0.6 U: Shimizu S-Pulse +0.5 1.65

Japan 1: Yokohama F. Marinos - Okayama @ 12:00
0.6 U: Okayama +0.25 1.78

Part 2

Brazil 2: Avai - Athletico-PR @ 21:00
1 U: Avai 0 1.75

Results - Saturday

Kashiwa Reysol - Kyoto => 3:3
3.8 U: Kashiwa Reysol -0.25 1.65 => L 1.9 U (1/2 stake)

Kawasaki Frontale - Vissel Kobe => 1:2
1.8 U: Vissel Kobe +0.25 1.65 => W 1.17 U

Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse => 1:1
0.6 U: Shimizu S-Pulse +0.5 1.65 => W 0.39 U

Yokohama F. Marinos - Okayama => 0:1
0.6 U: Okayama +0.25 1.78 => W 0.468 U

Avai - Athletico-PR => 1:2
1 U: Avai 0 1.75 => L 1 U

W 3 - L 2 (1.5) => L 0.872 U

Overall: W 13 (12.5) - L 14 (12) - P 3 => L 4.71 U

Day 7 / Sunday, Jun 22, 2025

Norway 1: Valerenga - Molde @ 14:30
3.2 U: Valerenga 0 1.78

Norway 1: HamKam - Tromso @ 17:00
0.6 U: Tromso -0.25 1.80

Norway 1: Kristiansund - Rosenborg @ 17:00
0.6 U: Rosenborg -0.5 1.87

Norway 1: Sarpsborg 08 - Bryne @ 17:00
0.6 U: Bryne +1 1.72

Norway 1: Viking - Fredrikstad @ 19:15
1.6 U: Fredrikstad +1.25 1.83

Results - Sunday

Valerenga - Molde => 2:3
3.2 U: Valerenga 0 1.78 => L 3.2 U

HamKam - Tromso => 1:3
0.6 U: Tromso -0.25 1.80 => W 0.48 U

Kristiansund - Rosenborg => 4:1
0.6 U: Rosenborg -0.5 1.87 => L 0.6 U

Sarpsborg 08 - Bryne => 1:1
0.6 U: Bryne +1 1.72 => W 0.432 U

Viking - Fredrikstad => 3:0
1.6 U: Fredrikstad +1.25 1.83 => L 1.6 U

W 2 - L 3 => L 4.488 U

Overall: W 15 (14.5) - L 17 (15) - P 3 => L 9.198 U

Day 8 / Monday, Jun 23, 2025

Uruguay 1: Boston River - Montevideo City @ 23:00
4.6 U: Boston River +0.25 1.75

Argentina 2: Nueva Chicago - Colon Santa Fe @ 00:00, Jun 24
0.6 U: Nueva Chicago -0.25 2.00

Brazil 2: Operario-PR - Novorizontino @ 00:00, Jun 24
0.8 U: Operario-PR 0 1.83

Uruguay 1: Cerro Largo - Plaza Colonia @ 01:00, Jun 24
0.6 U: Cerro Largo -0.25 1.90

Brazil 2: Goias - Athletic Club @ 02:00, Jun 24
2.2 U: Athletic Club +1 1.84

Results - Monday

Boston River - Montevideo City => 2:1
4.6 U: Boston River +0.25 1.75 => W 3.45 U

Nueva Chicago - Colon Santa Fe => 1:0
0.6 U: Nueva Chicago -0.25 2.00 => W 0.6 U

Operario-PR - Novorizontino => 2:0
0.8 U: Operario-PR 0 1.83 => W 0.664 U

Cerro Largo - Plaza Colonia => 0:1
0.6 U: Cerro Largo -0.25 1.90 => L 0.6 U

Goias - Athletic Club => 1:2
2.2 U: Athletic Club +1 1.84 => W 1.848 U

W 4 - L 1 => W 5.962 U

Overall: W 19 (18.5) - L 18 (16) - P 3 => L 3.236 U

Day 9 / Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025

Lithuania 1: Kauno Zalgiris - FK Panevezys @ 18:00
2.8 U: Kauno Zalgiris -1 1.89 (Pinnacle)

Gold Cup: Guadeloupe - Guatemala @ 01:00, Jun 25
0.6 U: Guadeloupe +0.5 1.94 (Pinnacle)

Gold Cup: Panama - Jamaica @ 01:00, Jun 25
0.6 U: Jamaica +0.5 1.69 (Pinnacle)

Colombia 1: Santa Fe - Ind. Medellin @ 02:30, Jun 25
0.8 U: Ind. Medellin 0 1.95

Gold Cup: Honduras - Curacao @ 04:00, Jun 25
2.2 U: Honduras 0 1.62 (Pinnacle)

@jersey_dude

Results - Tuesday

Kauno Zalgiris - FK Panevezys => 3:0
2.8 U: Kauno Zalgiris -1 1.89 => W 2.492 U

Guadeloupe - Guatemala => 2:3
0.6 U: Guadeloupe +0.5 1.94 => L 0.6 U

Panama - Jamaica => 4:1
0.6 U: Jamaica +0.5 1.69 => L 0.6 U

Santa Fe - Ind. Medellin => 0:0
0.8 U: Ind. Medellin 0 1.95 => P

Honduras - Curacao => 2:1
2.2 U: Honduras 0 1.62 => W 1.364 U

W 2 - L 2 - P 1 => W 2.656 U

Overall: W 21 (20.5) - L 20 (18) - P 4 => L 0.58 U

Day 10 / Wednesday, Jun 25, 2025

Euro U21: England U21 - Netherlands U21 @ 18:00
3.2 U: Netherlands U21 +0.5 1.78

USA 1: CF Montreal - FC Cincinnati @ 01:30, Jun 26
0.8 U: CF Montreal +0.25 1.85

USA 1: New England Revolution - Nashville SC @ 01:30, Jun 26
0.8 U: Nashville SC 0 1.83

USA 1: Chicago Fire - Philadelphia Union @ 02:30, Jun 26
0.8 U: Philadelphia Union +0.5 1.90

USA 1: Vancouver Whitecaps - San Diego FC @ 04:30, Jun 26
0.8 U: San Diego FC +0.5 1.85

Results - Wednesday

England U21 - Netherlands U21 => 2:1
3.2 U: Netherlands U21 +0.5 1.78 => L 3.2 U

CF Montreal - FC Cincinnati => 1:3
0.8 U: CF Montreal +0.25 1.85 => L 0.8 U

New England Revolution - Nashville SC => 2:3
0.8 U: Nashville SC 0 1.83 => W 0.664 U

Chicago Fire - Philadelphia Union => 0:1
0.8 U: Philadelphia Union +0.5 1.90 => W 0.72 U

Vancouver Whitecaps - San Diego FC => 3:5
0.8 U: San Diego FC +0.5 1.85 => W 0.68 U

W 3 - L 2 => L 1.936 U

Overall: W 24 (23.5) - L 22 (20) - P 4 => L 2.516 U