AC_28 Overs in Soccer

Midtjylland - Vejle OVER 2,5 Goals @1,59. GL!

Midtjylland - Vejle 2:0 FT. Tip KO

LASK - RB Salzburg OVER 2,5 Goals @1,61

GL!

Sarpsborg - FK Haugesund OVER 2,5 Goals @1,62. GL!

Saturday, early:

Degerfors - Ostersunds FK
OVER 2,5 Goals @1,74

GL!

Shimizu - V-Varen OVER 2,5 Goals @1.63

GL!

My complete selection for the weekend, with short analyses:

Gremio – Mirassol

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,20

Grêmio enters its home match against Mirassol after a 1-1 draw with Flamengo, having conceded five goals in its last six games. The defense is also weakened by numerous injuries – they are missing up to eight players, including Balbuena, Ely, and Villasanti, which could significantly disrupt their stability at the back. Mirassol goes into the match with high confidence after a 5-1 win over Bahia and has scored 12 goals in its last six matches, scoring in each of them. At the same time, however, they have conceded seven goals in the same period, which suggests open games with plenty of room for goals. The match between the two sides in April 2025 ended in a clear 4-1 win for Mirassol, which supports the hypothesis that there could be more goals this time around. The average number of goals scored in both teams' matches in recent weeks is well above 2.5, and the combination of Grêmio's defensive weaknesses and Mirassol's offensive form significantly increases the likelihood that this match will be high-scoring.

Vasco Da Gama – Ceara

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,40

Vasco da Gama goes into this match buoyed by a 3-2 win over Sport Recife, with their games recently producing a high goal average – 22 goals in the last 6 matches, an average of 3.67 goals per game. Their offense is productive, having scored 13 goals during this period, but their defense often fails, creating opportunities for further goals. Another problem is the number of injuries to key players, especially in midfield and defense, which could further weaken their defensive stability. Ceará has scored only 5 goals in their last 6 games, but they also face problems in defense, as they have a long list of injured players, including goalkeeper Fernando Miguel and defender Luiz Otávio. Head-to-head matches between these teams have yielded an average of 2.33 goals, but Vasco da Gama's current form and their high-scoring games suggest that the 2.5-goal mark could be exceeded this time around. The combination of the home team's strong attack, injuries on both sides, and poor defense creates the conditions for an offensive game. I expect more than 2.5 goals here.

Volta Redonda – Criciuma

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,58

Volta Redonda goes into the match buoyed by a 2-1 win over Paysandu, which suggests that they can also impose themselves offensively on their opponents' pitches. Although their recent matches have often ended in goalless draws, they have failed to win at home in their last three games, which points to defensive weaknesses that their opponents could exploit. Criciúma is in stable form, having recently defeated Chapecoense 2-0 and averaging 1.67 goals per game. In addition, they are undefeated in their last two league games away from home, confirming their ability to score points outside their home environment. However, several absences in defense and midfield are a problem, including injuries to players with serious knee problems and two suspended players. These weaknesses may mean that Criciúma will be more prone to conceding goals, but at the same time, they will create scoring opportunities. Given the productivity of both teams and the defensive lapses of the visitors, it is realistic to expect that this match could produce more than 2.5 goals.

Vegalta Sendai – Mito

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,22

Vegalta Sendai comes into the match after a 1-1 draw with Ehime, with their recent results marked by a low number of goals. Nevertheless, they have the ability to score, having found the net in 5 of their last 6 games. Mito Hollyhock, on the other hand, are showing a much more offensive form - they have scored 11 goals in their last 6 games, but have also conceded in 5 of them, which indicates an open style of play and more space for goals on both sides. Their last match ended 2-2, which supports the expectation of a higher number of goals this time as well. Mito Hollyhock is also encouraged by the fact that they have not lost in their last two away league matches, which gives them confidence going forward. Vegalta has a good record against them in their last three league matches, not losing, which may mean that they will focus on offense in front of their home crowd. Since both teams have quality in attack but weaknesses in defense, it is very likely that the match will produce more than 2.5 goals.

GIF Sundsvall – Varberg

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,03

GIF Sundsvall comes into the match after a 1-2 loss to Landskrona, but they tend to do well at home, having lost only once in their last six home games in Superettan. In their last six games, they have scored and conceded eight goals, which points to an open style of play and the potential for goals at both ends. Varbergs BoIS is coming off a wild duel with Falkenberg, which they won 3:2, confirming that their defense is unstable – they have conceded a total of 9 goals in each of their last 6 games. On the other hand, they can be dangerous in attack, as they regularly score goals. The head-to-head record clearly favors Varberg, which has won four of the last six meetings, with an average of three goals scored in those games. Home team Sundsvall will benefit from the fact that their opponent is missing goalkeeper F. Andersson, which may increase their chances of scoring. Both teams are expected to score, and given their statistics and head-to-head record, it is very likely that the match will produce more than 2.5 goals.

Yamaguchi – JEF Chiba

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,21

Renofa Yamaguchi enters this match after a 2-2 draw with Mito Hollyhock, which only confirms their frequent defensive problems – they have conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches, a total of 8 goals. They are struggling at home, having failed to win in 6 consecutive league games, which may lead to a more open game with an emphasis on attack. In addition, they will be missing several players, including Ikegami, Kamekawa, and Firmino, which weakens their defensive options in particular. JEF United Chiba is in better form, having defeated Kofu 2-1 in their last match and conceding only 4 goals in their last 6 matches, while scoring 7. Historically, they have a clear advantage over Yamaguchi, having not lost any of their last 10 matches against them and scoring an average of 3 goals per game. They regularly excel in attack and could exploit the weaknesses of the home defense to score more goals. Tanaka's injury slightly weakens the visitors, but overall they are in better health than Renofa. Given the statistics, the tradition of mutual matches, and the defensive problems of the home team, it is highly likely that at least three goals will be scored.

Tokyo – Tokyo Verdy

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,52

FC Tokyo goes into the derby after a 1-1 draw with Nagoya Grampus, with their defense conceding 11 goals in the last 6 games, which indicates a high potential for goals in this match as well. In addition, they have not won two league games in a row at home and have only one win in their last six games, which may lead to a more offensive approach. Tokyo Verdy recently drew 0-0 with Yokohama FC, but they have a solid record against FC Tokyo - they have not lost in their last six league games, and the last time these teams met, they shared the points after a 2-2 draw. Derby matches between these two teams are often evenly matched, with 83% ending in a draw, but the average of 2.17 goals per game may increase this time around given the defensive weaknesses of both teams. FC Tokyo is also struggling with absences – Arai, Ogashiwa, and Shirai are out of action, which could weaken their defense and variability in attack. Verdy, on the other hand, will be without Yamada and Yamami, which will reduce their attacking power. Nevertheless, both teams are likely to score goals, as four were scored in their last match. Given FC Tokyo's conceded goals statistics and the historically more offensive nature of the derby, it is very likely that the match will produce more than 2.5 goals.

Kumamoto – Tokushima

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,45

Roasso Kumamoto can rely on a series of three home wins before this match, having defeated Toyama 1-0 in the last round. However, the home team's defense has been unstable for a long time, conceding in 5 of their last 6 games and conceding a total of 9 goals, which increases the chance of goals this time as well. Tokushima Vortis has better defensive statistics in their last six matches, conceding only twice, but they have only scored five times themselves, which suggests a balanced but high-scoring match. The matches between these two teams tend to be close. Tokushima has won only once in the last seven matches, but there have been three draws, which often resulted in goals on both sides. The home team's weakened lineup is also important – they are missing Jeong-min Bae and Rikuto Hashimoto, which could disrupt the stability of their defense. The visitors will be without Lucas Barcelos, but they are still capable of winning. Statistics show that Roasso regularly scores at home but has trouble keeping a clean sheet. Therefore, we can expect a more open game with goals on both sides and most likely more than 2.5 goals.

Ferroviaria – Novorizontino

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,69

Ferroviária enters the match after a heavy 0:4 defeat to Coritiba, which highlights their defensive weaknesses, but at the same time, they have scored 9 goals in their last six games, an average of 1.5 goals per game. They have been successful at home for a long time, losing only twice in 12 Serie B matches, but they have not won twice in a row recently. Grêmio Novorizontino, on the other hand, has problems in offense, scoring only four goals in six games, but conceding eight, which creates room for a more open game. Head-to-head matches suggest higher goal productivity, with the last one ending 2-2, which directly supports the hypothesis of over 2.5 goals. The visitors will be without Renato Palm, which weakens their defensive stability. Ferroviária also scores regularly at home and will be motivated to show an offensive response after their defeat to Coritiba. The combination of the home team's offense and the visitors' weaker away form suggests that the match has the potential to produce more than 2.5 goals.

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