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NRL Season Thread

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AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 9, 2014 - 3:08 AM ET #26

Wow, my Tigers did not show up 2H. Ah well, thank you Sportsbet for refunding if your team scores 18 points or more and losses. I will count this as a loss on my total for the year but I got a refund back because of Sportsbet Round 1 & 2 refunds.

2-1 for the Week. +1.86 units

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 9, 2014 - 10:59 PM ET #27

Monday Night Football: Sharks vs Titans: Titans H2H - $2.05

Well after speaking with Snake today about this game, he has convinced me to take the Titans + I have big wraps on them doing very well this season with their team. Sharks have new coach, no Carney, no Robson, No Lewis and its a tough ask given the HB role to Holdsworth who has not played in the NRL for 3-4 years. The line opened up at -4 Sharks at the start of the week, not its down to -1 Sharks so I will follow this line and take Titans for the win S/U. I also saw the total's line move form 38- 39.5 which IMO means that the books are possibly thinking of a high scoring game. Why increase the totals line and decrease the ATS line? I think we see something like 24-18 Titans win.

Rostos

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Posted: Mar. 9, 2014 - 11:56 PM ET #28

Every man and his dog is on the Titans. The line has been doing nothing but dropping since the news of Carney, Ryan etc etc are all out.

This game as Ace would say has AIDS all over it.

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 10, 2014 - 12:03 AM ET #29

Agree Rostos but, a lot of people on this game but I think the Titans clean up. I think their squad is fantastic. Kelly was great in his first full season last year and they only missed out on the top 8 because of his injury IMO. He is now fit along with Sezer who's kicking game is unreal. I just don't trust Holdsworth playing 7 for the Sharks. I think Sharks are going to be playing a lot of this game in their own half.

Ace77

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Posted: Mar. 10, 2014 - 12:54 AM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by Rostos:

Every man and his dog is on the Titans. The line has been doing nothing but dropping since the news of Carney, Ryan etc etc are all out.

This game as Ace would say has AIDS all over it.

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 10, 2014 - 7:21 AM ET #31

Titans H2H

Round one: 3-1 (the loss I got my money back though thanks to Sportsbets promotion.

Units: +4.89

Onto Round 2.

snake2710

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Posted: Mar. 10, 2014 - 10:05 PM ET #32

Great opening weekend bud, may that continue all season long

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 10, 2014 - 11:38 PM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by snake2710:

Great opening weekend bud, may that continue all season long

Thanks Snake, I also noticed that you had a very good weekend as well. Congrats mate.

Any leans for Round Two? Im really liking Raiders +6 vs Knights in Newcastle. The Knights have been hit massively by injuries and the Raiders. The only thing that scares me is the Raiders record at Marathon stadium

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 13, 2014 - 3:05 AM ET #34

NRL Round Two

Season: 3-1 = +4.69 units

NZ Warriors vs St George Dragons: Over 40 points @ $1.90

This line seems awfully low considering both leaked easy points in Round One against opposition (Eels and Tigers) that really don't have much attacking firepower. I expect the Warriors to fire up for this game being that their home form is going to have to be at its best as their road form is not really that good. Last season, the Warriors were 7-5 at home, averaged 23.25 and allowed 19.5. As for the Dragons, well they were only 4-8 on the road, scoring 16.25 and allowing 21. With the Dragons showing good attack last week (hit 40+ for the first time in 5 years) and with the Warriors leaking defense, I think both teams can hit 20 in this game. I think the Warriors will win maybe 32-24.

Back with more plays later

norseman67

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Posted: Mar. 13, 2014 - 3:32 AM ET #35

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 1:14 AM ET #36

Brisbane Broncos vs NQ Cowboys: Cowboys -2 @ $1.92

Yes the Broncos won last weekend against the Dogs and their defense was excellent but the Dogs don't have much firepower with only Reynolds/Hodkinson. Now they face Thurston/Lui. Both forward packs match up well but I think this game is going to be won in the halves and outside backs. The Broncos have a lot of inexperienced players and the Cowboys have a great back line. Also, I really like how Kostjasyn played last week for the Cowboys. I really like the Cowboys bench as well with T Sims, Kostjasyn, Bolton, Hall and A Sims. I just think JT will rule the roast in this game and the Broncos defense might be exposed to a much better firepower than they had last week with the Dogs.

Prediction: 24-12 Cowboys.

GDayMate

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Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 1:31 AM ET #37

With you on Cowboys - GL to us!

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 11:23 PM ET #38

Cowboys -2 no good

Can someone explain to me why the total for Warriors vs Dragons has now dropped to 36.5? I can't see there being any main injuries just that Sam Williams is in for Michael Witt for the Dragons. Im thinking of adding more $$$ to the over. Surely the Warriors can score 30 if the Tigers can put 20+ on the Dragons. Thoughts?

vasilli07

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Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 11:39 PM ET #39

Maybe the weather.

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 11:45 PM ET #40

Good call Vasilli. Thank you, i just checked that and the weather apparently is terrible. Will stay away from adding more units. Still think the over hits IMO

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 11:54 PM ET #41

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers: Young Tonumaipea Anytime Tryscorer @ $2.00

Now with Cronk back in the team at HB, I think as per usual he will be using his sidelines and wingers a lot. For some reason I feel that this kid is going to be like Manu Fonua was at the start of last year. Melbourne love using their wings and to spread the ball wide and I think this kid crosses over for at least 1 try in this game. The total line is set at 41.5 so the books are expecting at least 6 -7 tries. Will take the risk as Cronk is back in the side.

rod_steel

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Posted: Mar. 15, 2014 - 2:00 AM ET #42

Rumour is Soward is out for the Panthers?

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 15, 2014 - 7:15 PM ET #43

Warriors vs Dragons over 40

Tonumaipea anytime try scorer

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders: Knights -4.5 $1.92

So Ricky Stuart vs Wayne Bennett. Mmmmm, which one is the better coach?? I will take a well coached and trained team like the Knights against a poor Raiders team anyday of the week. Knights have major injuries last weekend with Gidley being taken off due to concussion. Once they lost him they feel apart against a very good Panthers team. Raiders were just 2-10 S/U on the road last year. Newcastle at home were 7-4 S/U. I know this is a new season but I think the Knights can win this by a try and a conversion at least. Yes the Raiders did well against the Cowboys last week in the first 30 mins but then they fell apart and ended up losing 28-6 in the last 50 mins of that game. Not sure if they went home after the Cowboys game or if they stayed on the road but I still think the Knights hit back with a win at home against a Raiders team that just have not played well at Marathon (whatever you call it now) stadium. Apart from 1 win in the 2012 season, the Raiders have been flogged at this stadium in the recent seasons.

Prediction: 24-16 Knights win.

rod_steel

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Posted: Mar. 15, 2014 - 8:58 PM ET #44

Fading the Raiders on the road is always good business but you are not concerned with the Knights outs?

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 15, 2014 - 9:05 PM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:

Fading the Raiders on the road is always good business but you are not concerned with the Knights outs?

Hey Rod,

Gidley and Roberts are in this game and I'm happy with that. They both past concussion medical tests. Gidley has been named at hooker and Roberts HB. I think the Raiders and Stuart are ill-disciplined and the clinical minded Bennett knows that. No Shillington or Learoyd-Lahrs either for the Raiders. I like the quick 2nd row as well for the Knights and I think they will be too much to handle for the Raiders.

rod_steel

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Posted: Mar. 15, 2014 - 9:08 PM ET #46

Fair enough, I just think Boyd is they key link to this Knights backline moreso than any other of the players. No coincidence that when he went off injured last week the Knights fell into a heap.

Think I will give this one a miss, BOL mate.

Luckylunchbox

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Posted: Mar. 15, 2014 - 9:20 PM ET #47

I have no feel for either the knights or the raiders

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 17, 2014 - 1:37 AM ET #48

Knights -4.5

Should just go all the underdogs.

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Cronulla Sharks: Under 39.5 @ $1.90 + Sharks +11.5 @ $1.92

I really can't see the Sharks doing much in attack this game with no Fafita, Gallen or Carney. The Dogs defense was decent against the Broncos and I think they can win this game. Sharks struggled last week against the Titans and so did the Dogs against the Broncos and both attacks look pretty boring. I think it might be something along the lines of 18-10 Dogs win.

Sultansport

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Posted: Mar. 17, 2014 - 4:04 AM ET #49

Hi guys

nice thread going here, i have a question for you guys. would anyone know the winning percentage of NRL favs vs Dogs for last year and the previous 5 at least?

Cheers

AussieDownUnder

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Posted: Mar. 21, 2014 - 1:40 AM ET #50

Season: 4-6 (not the start I was looking for).

Round 3

Broncos vs Roosters: Broncos +6

Will take a home dog with a line like this. Yes the Roosters smashed the Eels last week but that was a bounce back game after their poor effort against the Rabbits the week before. The Broncos forward is big and strong and so are the Roosters. The young guns of the Broncos have been doing very well. These teams only met once last year and the Roosters won 8-0 in Sydney. I think this game is going to be brutal and low scoring and will take the extra points for the home dog.

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