San Francisco at San Diego (12/16/2010)

With three games left to play the San Diego Chargers are a game back in the AFC West after knocking off the first place Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday. With the Chiefs having their share of issues, San Diego has a chance to make their usual late season run and their usual playoff appearance. Phillip Rivers is having another big year completing 66.1 percent of his passes for 3,868 yards with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions as the Chargers have the second best passing offense in the NFL. Ryan Mathews is healthy again and ready for the stretch drive and Mike Tolbert has shown the ability to carry the load as they split time each getting 16 carries last week against KC. Antonio Gates is still ailing with a hurt foot but he could give it a go here as crunch time has arrived and Vincent Jackson has worked his way back into game shape. Kevin Burnett leads the San Diego defense with 75 tackles and five sacks and Eric Weddle has 69 tackles. Shaun Phillips has been unstoppable with 10 sacks and San Diego has 28 as a team. Antoine Cason has four interceptions and the Chargers have 13 as a team. For the season San Diego is averaging 27.2 points and 399.6 yards per game while defensively they are allowing 19.5 points and 264.9 yards.

The San Francisco 49ers are three games below .500 but just a game out of first place in the NFC West. The Niners sent a message to the rest of the division last week pounding the Seahawks and putting the game out of reach well before it even made ti to halftime. Alex Smith has been in and out of the lineup and for now he is in as he's healthy as he threw for three touchdowns and 255 yards. Anthony Dixon and Brian Westbrook are splitting time in the backfield to fill in for the injured Frank Gore and both of them are capable of getting it done. Josh Morgan is emerging as a force at receiver and with Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree give Smith a formidable group of targets. Patrick Willis is simply one of the best defenders in the NFL as his 108 tackles leads the team and he also has five sacks. Justin Smith has five and a half a sacks as San Francisco has 28 as a team. Nate Clements, Takeo Spikes, and Shawntae Spencer have three interceptions each as the 49ers have 13 as a team. San Francisco is averaging 18.7 points and 317.5 yards per game and the defense is allowing 21.5 points and 327.4 yards.

San Diego is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall, 5-2 against the spread in their last seven home games, and 1-4-1 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 9-2-2 against the spread as an underdog, 0-5 against the spread following a straight up win, and 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six road games against a team with a winning home record.

While these teams don't play in the same division and not even the same conference, this one is very much like a playoff game as both of them need the win to keep pace in their divisions. While these teams can move the ball, they both have strong defenses and some of the best defensive stars int he game with Willis, Phillips, and Weddle. With the total set at 44.5 I think this one stays under with both teams running the ball and playing defense.

UNDER 44.5
SD 27
SF  13

The one's with the most black stars are the one's who are screaming that we shouldn't over think this one and go with SD.  I do not agree with 1 single person on this thread on this game.  I think the big game SF had on Sunday will carry over to tonight's game.  Not enough time for them to fuck things up in practice.  Usually I like the home team on Thursday games because of the huge advantage it has being home on a short week.  I think just the opposite tonight.  I could care less who SF played last Sunday.  Just the fact that they opened things up and played to potential is enough for me.  Plus, they still have a good shot at winning the division.

SF +10
Under 45

Gl all

Tex

Over is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 games following a ATS win.

Under is 5-0 in 49ers last 5 games in Week 15.

Over is 6-1-1 in 49ers last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Over is 4-1-1 in 49ers last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 3-0-1 in Chargers last 4 games overall.

Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Over is 3-0-1 in Chargers last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Over is 6-0 in Chargers last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Over is 6-1-1 in Chargers last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Over is 5-1-1 in Chargers last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Over is 5-1-1 in Chargers last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Over is 4-1-1 in Chargers last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games as a home favorite.

Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 home games.

Under is 8-2-1 in Chargers last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

lots of references to the sf vs. sea. game and the blowout it was. did anyone but me see that hassleback was throwing the ball to the niners as much as his own team.

why all the luv for the under guys?

SF Will Be Lucky to score 10 -17 points

Yup, I can do that too.  Joe, you take the Niners and don't pay me unless they win.  Pete, you take the Chargers and don't pay me unless they win.  Guess what?  I'm getting paid tonight.

A few observations. I see 49ers bringing a strong pass rush due to Chargers formations. No secret Norv Turner likes 4 wide sets and I see 49ers coming after Rivers with a nice thier pass rushers. Considering 49ers must either have this game or beat St Louis next week to keep pace for division lead, I think points and 49ers mental state is a good bet. Even though Spikes and Willis are banged up, I expect them to stay at pace with Rivers for at least 3 quarters. I just don't trust Chargers, take away thier Monday night win aganist Denver which is a bad team, they get pounded by Oakland on both sides of ball and then beat Brodie Croyle last week. Ya, I didn't forget the win aganist Indy, but lets remember 2 touchdowns were pick 6 gifts into triple coverage, But, they did deserve the win. I'm gambling 49ers can show up and compete, win or lose I like 49ers energy and vibe over last 7 games. Bolts 31 49ers 24

I'm having a very tough time believing that San Francisco's gonna' keep this game close.  Their win last weekend did nothing to impress me as Seattle has been thumped by a great many teams on the road this year.  

Everyone on Diego on this board.  Spread and moneylines are heavily tilted toward Diego as well.

All this talk about a rout.  Looking at Diego's previous games where they scored 30 plus, the defenses that gave it up were below average. 

Greenbay game was the one bad  spot defensively for the Niners

The niners have been a cover machine especially when the public has gone the other way.

10 points to much here as the averages would suggest a 24-20 type game with the Bolts winning.

49ers plus the 10.  If they are ahead with the points at the half, will bet the bolts and hope to hit both. 

II DO NOT GET PAID UNLESS YOU WIN, THAT IS HOW CONFIDENT I AM IN MY PICKS. 100.00 FLAT RATE PER PICK NO MATTER WHAT YOUR BETTING ON IT IF MY PICK FAILS YOUR $$$$$$$ WILL IMMEDIATELY BE CREDITED BACK TO YOU THROUGH PAYPAL. YOU HAVE NOTHING TO LOSE. EMAIL ME AT stevepascarella@yahoo.com or call 1716-997-4496 START WINNING

Last thing. If you take Sfran youre betting on the only NFL team that lost to Carolina!!!!!

78 percent on the over and yet it has only went up a half point

San Diego Chargers -10

WOW, I thought the board was smarter than this.....everyone is on San Diego tonight...BAD BAD BAD call boys

TEASE BOTH:

SD -3/OVER 38
SF +17/OVER 38

2-0 !!

San Francisco has won only one road game this season, coming in the Monday night massacre of Arizona in Week 12 with a 27-6 thrashing of the Cardinals. The Niners have been listed as a road underdog only twice in six away contests, covering at Atlanta, while failing to cash in an 18-point loss at Green Bay. Under Mike Singletary, San Francisco is a profitable 9-5-2 ATS when receiving points on the highway since 2008.

When San Diego wins at Qualcomm Stadium, it usually blows away its opponents. Four of San Diego's five home victories this season are by double-digits, with the lone single-digit triumph coming by eight points over Tennessee in Week 8. The Bolts are 7-2 SU and 5-3-1 ATS against NFC opponents at home since 2006, while compiling a 7-2 mark to the 'over.

Gates Foot

Davis IR

Floyd Hamstring

Crayton Wrist

Naaner Hamstring 

Did I leave any receivers out?

...and still a 10.5 Fav

+9.5 =

PERCEPTION; San Diego is a scoring machine,  10.5

REALITY; San Diego receiving core is a MASH unit and Sproles' brain is still a little tender. 

Vegas hopes you don't noitce and it seems like I'm the only one bringing it up so it goes to show. . .

 

I think Vincent Jackson will have a good night in Floyd's absense... they also have Nanee and that rookie.... there back-up tight end isn't awful in McMicheal.... obviously a down-grade of Antonio Gates....

I think they still have the depth to be scary on offense even though they are back-ups, especially with those 3 running backs.....

Alex Smith on short rest? I'll bet against him any day....

Chargers in all 3 phases...

laying 9.5