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San Francisco at Arizona (10/29/2012)

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Posts: 87

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 5051

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 12:13 PM ET #26

So much talk about San Francisco not being as great as last season. Sad news is they're not. The '9 ers recorded a record number of turnovers in their 13-3 season. Unfortunately, such occurances as TO's cannot be replicated from year to year. I decided here to play the total:

OVER 38

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 5051

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 12:40 PM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

At first glance, this number seems way too big. The 49ers offense hasn't looked the same since the Gmen came into town and completely shut them down. I feel that their offense is still a work in progress, and is struggling to find an identity. I think they should stop bringing in Kaepernick, and just find a more creative way to get Vernon Davis the damn ball (last week he had 0 targets). It is quite evident that Alex Smith doesn't like coming on and off the field during a drive.

That being said, this 49er team certainly has an identity on defense, and this matchup against the Cardinals is a huge mismatch. Arizona does not have the personnel to run the ball on this 49er front 7. They also have a quarterback in Skelton who has yet to find his groove this season (he has only started 2 games). Good luck finding your groove against this 49er defense. Arizona must use the short passing game to keep themselves out of third and longs because running the ball on that front 7 will be challenging to say the least.

What I found interesting is that Arizona's defense has been very effective against Alex Smith (sacking him 6 times in their previous matchup). Last time these teams played at Arizona, the Cardinals won 21-19 despite turning the ball over 3 times (the 49ers didn't turn the ball over). That is certainly a sign of strength if I've ever seen one. Skelton was also able to connect with Larry Fitz 7 times for a 150 yards and a TD.

Given that this a divisional game and that Zona hasn't won a game since week 4, I would say take the points on the Cards as they are going to be extra motivated to end this 3-game losing streak BUT, keep in mind the following:

Jim Harbaugh is a heck of a coach and he had extra time to prepare for this game because they were the thursday night game last week. Also, I group Harbaugh into the disciplinarian/scary type of coach. The 49ers are going into the bye next week, and I imagine this young 49er team is fearing a brutal week of practice if they lose.

I would also pay attention to the status of Darnell Docket who is listed as questionable. If he's not playing or not healthy, that could mean a big day for Frank Gore.

Sorry for all those who went down in flames with me on Green Bay, the Eagles, and the Chiefs. I will never take the Chiefs again. At least I got the Panthers and Gmen right. Good luck, I'm ending my week at 2-3.

Sorry Sammy- Couldn't get back to you on the GB comment you made to me. Was out of town. I think, as well as others, that your game writeups and analysis are great. They are very instructive and we all can gain great insights. Long analysis, and reams of stats ,is not what I'm about . I've been bashed for my glib comments, and self promoting style. But I'm not about style, but substance. For me I carefully research and handicap each game I post. I stand behind each selection. But I don't play them all. I play mostly pro football, and I specialize in finding and playing "live" underdogs. Of course, I don't stand alone, as I learn & share with many of my best friends on Covers, whom all are excellent cappers. Fortunately, I also consult with a family member, who runs bets in Vegas, as well as having a friend ,whom is a professional. So you had an "off" week- we all do. Keep it up & G/L!

I would also pay attention to the status of Darnell Docket who is listed as questionable. If he's not playing or not healthy, that could mean a big day for Frank Gore.

jpgiesel

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 21

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 1:00 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by wangichu:

6-2 SU as a home dog i should note

they are in san fran dummy

nivek1960

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 1

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 1:21 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by jpgiesel:

they are in san fran dummy

LOL Maybe on your planet JP,,,,,Should really check where the game is played before you open your BIG DUMB MOUTH

greengiants

Rookie

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 526

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 1:29 PM ET #30

san francisco -7

jpgiesel

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 21

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 1:37 PM ET #31

san fran money line

rarafromphilly

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 3284

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 1:46 PM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by bkg1010:

Lets see, you have a team coming in with the #1 rushing offense, the #1 defense, with 10 days to prepare, giving 7 points, against the home team with little to no offense, with the #6 ranked defense, #4 scoring defense (points allowed)

Barring keys turnovers which can happen in any game, this is a no brainier, in my opinion.

Under the total

Large. 49ers -7

Make any sense ?

GLTA

this was my lean also.

zzziggy

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 298

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 1:50 PM ET #33

Originally posted by tasok:

"monday night divisional game sf blow out or az covers tough one"

Yea buddy that's kind of the idea of handicapping....

T99

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 342

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 1:57 PM ET #34

I had a bad week-end too thinking stay away from this one as I have already over-thought it ! GL Sammy/Vue/ viking and all

pointbreak7

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 149

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 1:59 PM ET #35

first half over and niners ml for game

Wendubs

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 1475

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 2:00 PM ET #36

San Fran ML - if I had to play

UHQB

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 3072

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 2:02 PM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by JessieVegas:

I just cant see Arizona doin much on offense here. 20 to 6 49ers

Exactly ! Not much scoring for Arizona against this stout defense. Throw out the Giants game and you see 49ers shutting out this useless Zona offense. Zona has a respectable D at home so, Under & 49ers is it. This total is NOT going over 38.5 anywhere. 21-13 score at the most. It get ugly for Zona in the second half because they have zero adjustments to counter with.

radids

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 7

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 2:29 PM ET #38

I'm not an expert guys so please be kind, This is my humble opinion Arizona ML + Over or Arizona + Spread and Over if SF Wins then will be SF ML + Under... Arizona will go all out they have more to lose than SF does.

ok i said it, ill appreciate any feedback GL to all.

WinsNow999

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8093

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 2:36 PM ET #39

Why Not?...My style of plays!!! Dog & Under!!!...This game is set perfectly !...." I am dogs player"!

wasabitobiko

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 1204

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 2:46 PM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by jpgiesel:

they are in san fran dummy

FAIL.

frankoventura

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 114

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 2:47 PM ET #41

I would also pay attention to the status of Darnell Docket who is listed as questionable. If he's not playing or not healthy, that could mean a big day for Frank Gore.

2-3 ????? im ending my week 15-3 and the pick today is SF -6.5 6 units and SF-7 2units.

over/under its too complicated.

I would also pay attention to the status of Darnell Docket who is listed as questionable. If he's not playing or not healthy, that could mean a big day for Frank Gore.

2-3 ????? im ending my week 15-3 and the pick today is SF -6.5 6 units and SF-7 2units.

over/under its too complicated.

wasabitobiko

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 1204

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 2:58 PM ET #42

I come on here a couple of times a week to check in with the fade squad. There's on poster in particular who is fade material week after week.. I'm not going to name names or

but the guy is like 2-12 for his postings this week.. For this game he has posted the niners -7 and the under which is at 38.5.

Not like anyone gives a shit, but my lean is the MNF home dog. This season dogs are 5-2 on MNF home dogs are 1-0 SU.. Not sayin' the Cards ARE going to win but they could and at +255 could be worth a bite. I realize that their Offense has been stagnant and they have lost 4 in a row but their defense and home crowd are enough to get them within a td.. SF 27-24 in OT

Louis_IV

Legend

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 34742

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 3:00 PM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by jpgiesel:

they are in san fran dummy

dumbass

mellowman7883

Rookie

Joined: Jun, 2010

Posts: 746

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 3:15 PM ET #44

Guys, does anybody know of a site to go to to find out who is officiating each game? For example if Hochuli is officiating I want to know about it. I want to start tracking the refs and the calls and the outcomes and see if I can find a correlation to the over under scores and the spread.

radids

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 7

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 3:29 PM ET #45

Arizona ML + Over

Not saying its going to happen but who knows... it worst the risk...

citysnow

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 376

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 3:33 PM ET #46

here we go again same as last year SF an AZ battle it out to a close one in this game AZ gets the cover but an L is waiting on them at the end

BloodyShredder

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2003

Posts: 1600

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 3:46 PM ET #47

Niners were up late last night watching the Giants win the World Series.

ARIZONA +7

p-99

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 84

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:06 PM ET #48

I don't usually analyze the performace of the teams, but this is an odd match-up.

They have 3 common opponents, SEA, BUF and MIN of which they performed against similarly with the exception of BUF who beat ARI in overtime.

Looking at all games that ARI had played, when their QB had only few sacked they covered the spread :

1 QB sacked in SEA game, 1 QB sacked in NE game and 3 QB sacked in PHIL game

, but the last 4 games that they did not cover or push:

8 QB sacked in MIA game, 9 QB sacked in STL game, 5 QB sacked in BUF game and 7 QB sacked in MIN game.

It all comes down to whether SF can rush and sack the QB or not,

This article offfer some considerations:

https://www.mercurynews.com/49ers/ci_21855634/san-francisco-49ers-defense-can-pad-sack-numbers?source=rss

although I'm not sure if SF can really rush and sack the QB that well according to the statistic.

I have not decide who to go with tonite, ...later.

wonderwomen

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 130

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:13 PM ET #49

im with radids

arz ml n over parlay

arz +7.5 for same

TheQuadYeah

Banned

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 1827

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:28 PM ET #50

O.K., here we go. Man, the Eagles & Bears really F***ed me yesterday - but no worries - I can make up for a somewhat down weekend in just one game......

Cards +7.5 & Over 35.5

pays +190

Let's do this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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San Francisco at Arizona (10/29/2012)

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