I've been trying to guess lines a week or two before they come out this year and I was within a couple points of every line except this one. This is just way too many points. So much value on a strong defense in a division game. 9ers are only laying this much because they are such a public team and the cards are sliding back to preseason value. I do expect the cards to regress severely on the merits of that piss poor offensive line, but at this point, the lines have caught back up to the regression and there is NO value fading the cards. I really think they could win this SU. Hell they did last year as mere 3.5 point dogs when the 9ers looked a lot more consistently solid and before the public became aware of what the cards were capable of.
There's plenty of supporting reasons for the play, but sometimes, you just have to look at public team laying an inflated number, close your eyes, and bet into the value. I booked this early because it's coming down if anything
ZONA +7
I've been trying to guess lines a week or two before they come out this year and I was within a couple points of every line except this one. This is just way too many points. So much value on a strong defense in a division game. 9ers are only laying this much because they are such a public team and the cards are sliding back to preseason value. I do expect the cards to regress severely on the merits of that piss poor offensive line, but at this point, the lines have caught back up to the regression and there is NO value fading the cards. I really think they could win this SU. Hell they did last year as mere 3.5 point dogs when the 9ers looked a lot more consistently solid and before the public became aware of what the cards were capable of.
There's plenty of supporting reasons for the play, but sometimes, you just have to look at public team laying an inflated number, close your eyes, and bet into the value. I booked this early because it's coming down if anything
Harbaugh has had 10 days to prepare for this game and he will have his boys ready to play... These two teams have had a decent rivalry in the past few years, but I don't see that continuing into this season. The Cardinals are slowly unraveling. And as much I still think that Smith is a fraud and Kapernick should be the 49ers QB I see the 49ers winning this one easily. The 49ers are just a better team.
I'm gonna guess that the 49ers win it by at least 13 pts, but this could be a blow out.
49ers -7, -7 1/2, -9, whatever... They'll cover it.
And I think that Arizona will manage to put some points on the board, so I'm also taking the Over 38.5. I can see the 49ers putting up at least 35 by themselves.
Harbaugh has had 10 days to prepare for this game and he will have his boys ready to play... These two teams have had a decent rivalry in the past few years, but I don't see that continuing into this season. The Cardinals are slowly unraveling. And as much I still think that Smith is a fraud and Kapernick should be the 49ers QB I see the 49ers winning this one easily. The 49ers are just a better team.
I'm gonna guess that the 49ers win it by at least 13 pts, but this could be a blow out.
49ers -7, -7 1/2, -9, whatever... They'll cover it.
And I think that Arizona will manage to put some points on the board, so I'm also taking the Over 38.5. I can see the 49ers putting up at least 35 by themselves.
At first glance, this number seems way too big. The 49ers offense hasn't looked the same since the Gmen came into town and completely shut them down. I feel that their offense is still a work in progress, and is struggling to find an identity. I think they should stop bringing in Kaepernick, and just find a more creative way to get Vernon Davis the damn ball (last week he had 0 targets). It is quite evident that Alex Smith doesn't like coming on and off the field during a drive.
That being said, this 49er team certainly has an identity on defense, and this matchup against the Cardinals is a huge mismatch. Arizona does not have the personnel to run the ball on this 49er front 7. They also have a quarterback in Skelton who has yet to find his groove this season (he has only started 2 games). Good luck finding your groove against this 49er defense. Arizona must use the short passing game to keep themselves out of third and longs because running the ball on that front 7 will be challenging to say the least.
What I found interesting is that Arizona's defense has been very effective against Alex Smith (sacking him 6 times in their previous matchup). Last time these teams played at Arizona, the Cardinals won 21-19 despite turning the ball over 3 times (the 49ers didn't turn the ball over). That is certainly a sign of strength if I've ever seen one. Skelton was also able to connect with Larry Fitz 7 times for a 150 yards and a TD.
Given that this a divisional game and that Zona hasn't won a game since week 4, I would say take the points on the Cards as they are going to be extra motivated to end this 3-game losing streak BUT, keep in mind the following:
Jim Harbaugh is a heck of a coach and he had extra time to prepare for this game because they were the thursday night game last week. Also, I group Harbaugh into the disciplinarian/scary type of coach. The 49ers are going into the bye next week, and I imagine this young 49er team is fearing a brutal week of practice if they lose.
I would also pay attention to the status of Darnell Docket who is listed as questionable. If he's not playing or not healthy, that could mean a big day for Frank Gore.
Sorry for all those who went down in flames with me on Green Bay, the Eagles, and the Chiefs. I will never take the Chiefs again. At least I got the Panthers and Gmen right. Good luck, I'm ending my week at 2-3.
At first glance, this number seems way too big. The 49ers offense hasn't looked the same since the Gmen came into town and completely shut them down. I feel that their offense is still a work in progress, and is struggling to find an identity. I think they should stop bringing in Kaepernick, and just find a more creative way to get Vernon Davis the damn ball (last week he had 0 targets). It is quite evident that Alex Smith doesn't like coming on and off the field during a drive.
That being said, this 49er team certainly has an identity on defense, and this matchup against the Cardinals is a huge mismatch. Arizona does not have the personnel to run the ball on this 49er front 7. They also have a quarterback in Skelton who has yet to find his groove this season (he has only started 2 games). Good luck finding your groove against this 49er defense. Arizona must use the short passing game to keep themselves out of third and longs because running the ball on that front 7 will be challenging to say the least.
What I found interesting is that Arizona's defense has been very effective against Alex Smith (sacking him 6 times in their previous matchup). Last time these teams played at Arizona, the Cardinals won 21-19 despite turning the ball over 3 times (the 49ers didn't turn the ball over). That is certainly a sign of strength if I've ever seen one. Skelton was also able to connect with Larry Fitz 7 times for a 150 yards and a TD.
Given that this a divisional game and that Zona hasn't won a game since week 4, I would say take the points on the Cards as they are going to be extra motivated to end this 3-game losing streak BUT, keep in mind the following:
Jim Harbaugh is a heck of a coach and he had extra time to prepare for this game because they were the thursday night game last week. Also, I group Harbaugh into the disciplinarian/scary type of coach. The 49ers are going into the bye next week, and I imagine this young 49er team is fearing a brutal week of practice if they lose.
I would also pay attention to the status of Darnell Docket who is listed as questionable. If he's not playing or not healthy, that could mean a big day for Frank Gore.
Sorry for all those who went down in flames with me on Green Bay, the Eagles, and the Chiefs. I will never take the Chiefs again. At least I got the Panthers and Gmen right. Good luck, I'm ending my week at 2-3.
Lets see, you have a team coming in with the #1 rushing offense, the #1 defense, with 10 days to prepare, giving 7 points, against the home team with little to no offense, with the #6 ranked defense, #4 scoring defense (points allowed)
Barring keys turnovers which can happen in any game, this is a no brainier, in my opinion.
Under the totalLarge. 49ers -7
Make any sense ?
GLTA
Lets see, you have a team coming in with the #1 rushing offense, the #1 defense, with 10 days to prepare, giving 7 points, against the home team with little to no offense, with the #6 ranked defense, #4 scoring defense (points allowed)
Barring keys turnovers which can happen in any game, this is a no brainier, in my opinion.
At first glance, this number seems way too big. The 49ers offense hasn't looked the same since the Gmen came into town and completely shut them down. I feel that their offense is still a work in progress, and is struggling to find an identity. I think they should stop bringing in Kaepernick, and just find a more creative way to get Vernon Davis the damn ball (last week he had 0 targets). It is quite evident that Alex Smith doesn't like coming on and off the field during a drive.
That being said, this 49er team certainly has an identity on defense, and this matchup against the Cardinals is a huge mismatch. Arizona does not have the personnel to run the ball on this 49er front 7. They also have a quarterback in Skelton who has yet to find his groove this season (he has only started 2 games). Good luck finding your groove against this 49er defense. Arizona must use the short passing game to keep themselves out of third and longs because running the ball on that front 7 will be challenging to say the least.
What I found interesting is that Arizona's defense has been very effective against Alex Smith (sacking him 6 times in their previous matchup). Last time these teams played at Arizona, the Cardinals won 21-19 despite turning the ball over 3 times (the 49ers didn't turn the ball over). That is certainly a sign of strength if I've ever seen one. Skelton was also able to connect with Larry Fitz 7 times for a 150 yards and a TD.
Given that this a divisional game and that Zona hasn't won a game since week 4, I would say take the points on the Cards as they are going to be extra motivated to end this 3-game losing streak BUT, keep in mind the following:
Jim Harbaugh is a heck of a coach and he had extra time to prepare for this game because they were the thursday night game last week. Also, I group Harbaugh into the disciplinarian/scary type of coach. The 49ers are going into the bye next week, and I imagine this young 49er team is fearing a brutal week of practice if they lose.
I would also pay attention to the status of Darnell Docket who is listed as questionable. If he's not playing or not healthy, that could mean a big day for Frank Gore.
Sorry for all those who went down in flames with me on Green Bay, the Eagles, and the Chiefs. I will never take the Chiefs again. At least I got the Panthers and Gmen right. Good luck, I'm ending my week at 2-3.
By the way... What a damn great writeup!!!
Quote Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:
At first glance, this number seems way too big. The 49ers offense hasn't looked the same since the Gmen came into town and completely shut them down. I feel that their offense is still a work in progress, and is struggling to find an identity. I think they should stop bringing in Kaepernick, and just find a more creative way to get Vernon Davis the damn ball (last week he had 0 targets). It is quite evident that Alex Smith doesn't like coming on and off the field during a drive.
That being said, this 49er team certainly has an identity on defense, and this matchup against the Cardinals is a huge mismatch. Arizona does not have the personnel to run the ball on this 49er front 7. They also have a quarterback in Skelton who has yet to find his groove this season (he has only started 2 games). Good luck finding your groove against this 49er defense. Arizona must use the short passing game to keep themselves out of third and longs because running the ball on that front 7 will be challenging to say the least.
What I found interesting is that Arizona's defense has been very effective against Alex Smith (sacking him 6 times in their previous matchup). Last time these teams played at Arizona, the Cardinals won 21-19 despite turning the ball over 3 times (the 49ers didn't turn the ball over). That is certainly a sign of strength if I've ever seen one. Skelton was also able to connect with Larry Fitz 7 times for a 150 yards and a TD.
Given that this a divisional game and that Zona hasn't won a game since week 4, I would say take the points on the Cards as they are going to be extra motivated to end this 3-game losing streak BUT, keep in mind the following:
Jim Harbaugh is a heck of a coach and he had extra time to prepare for this game because they were the thursday night game last week. Also, I group Harbaugh into the disciplinarian/scary type of coach. The 49ers are going into the bye next week, and I imagine this young 49er team is fearing a brutal week of practice if they lose.
I would also pay attention to the status of Darnell Docket who is listed as questionable. If he's not playing or not healthy, that could mean a big day for Frank Gore.
Sorry for all those who went down in flames with me on Green Bay, the Eagles, and the Chiefs. I will never take the Chiefs again. At least I got the Panthers and Gmen right. Good luck, I'm ending my week at 2-3.
I think this line is where it should be. I typically like the home dog here but SF has to be motivated to make up for the whooping the Giants gave them. Also SF had a few extra days to prepare for this game.
I think this line is where it should be. I typically like the home dog here but SF has to be motivated to make up for the whooping the Giants gave them. Also SF had a few extra days to prepare for this game.
NINERS OFFENSE SUCKS THERE SUCH AN OVERRATED PUBLIC EYE TEAM AND THE WAY THESE DOGS HAVE BEEN HITTING IN THESE PRIMETIME GAMES UR CRAZY IF U TAKE THE FAVORITE
NINERS OFFENSE SUCKS THERE SUCH AN OVERRATED PUBLIC EYE TEAM AND THE WAY THESE DOGS HAVE BEEN HITTING IN THESE PRIMETIME GAMES UR CRAZY IF U TAKE THE FAVORITE
7pts is too much for SF these days. Seems they are having a let down year and Alex Smith is looking like he did years back, which is not good. I think I am going to stay away from this one. SF has been tough to gauge this season. GLTA
SF would be my play if I had $$ to
7pts is too much for SF these days. Seems they are having a let down year and Alex Smith is looking like he did years back, which is not good. I think I am going to stay away from this one. SF has been tough to gauge this season. GLTA
UNDER 38.5
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