New York at New England (02/05/2012)

I picked the Giants + 3.5 on my website handicappingwinners.com where I am 70% in the playoffs and 60% for the year (on spot plays). My early analysis is on the site but I'll have my complete analysis by Friday. I think the line could drop below 3. The line is based on how the bookmakers think the general public will bet, but the actual line, based on each team's strengths, match ups, stats, etc., tshould be either even or the Giants favored by 1 to 2 points. The Giants have more speed, and a better defense.

Judging by my man, cryptonite we call him............... he loves Gmen and stands to collect 10g. The last time he won there was no such thing as football. Sorry Eli and co. the fickled finger of fate has been pointed directly at you.  If I had to make a play....

 

PATRIOTS ML.  

Now that the dust has settled...... a few words....

I am still happy about my 49ers pick..... I trust my logic of the home field advantage and better defense playing in those rainy conditions..... I feel if I go with that formula I'll win more than lose, and I have won more than lost over my capping career...... the only place obviously I was wrong was the special teams advantage that I thought SF had..... I was under the impression that Ted Ginn would play, and it turned out he was a bigger loss than could've been predicted..... Weatherford had a great game as did the Giants coverage teams.... hats off to them....

In my opinion, sheer will and playoff experience won that football game..... to not turn the ball over against a defense like that is more than very impressive, it's unbelievable..... The toughness of Eli Manning getting his ass kicked the entire game and still kept fighting was actually inspiring.... and that's coming from a Jets fan.... (by the way that pass to bradshaw when he escaped the sack was insane for a non-mobile qb)


on to this game....


I can't believe the line opeend at 3.5


I don't think this is even going to be a game.....


after playing the SF defense, the Giants offense is going to be comfortably scoring at will..... this game they will actually be able to run the ball......


I think the Giants win by a comfortable margin.....


hell I don't think it's even going to be a game.....


it's an early lean, but I just think the Giants beat the Pats when they were playing terrible football..... now they are playing great football and are healthy..... not to mention that have always matched up well against the Pats....  how is this line 3.5?



GL TO ALL!

"The loss of Andre Carter could be perilous in that regard, as they won't be able to count on one of their most disruptive forces on the season."

"The New England Patriots cruised to a 13-3 record on their way to the AFC's top seed, but Tim Britton of the Providence Journal uncovered a disquieting fact for Pats fans: the team only played two games against franchises that finished with winning records, and lost them both -- to theSteelers in Pittsburgh and at home against the Giants."

Plus Nicks didn't play when the Giants ended the Pats 31 game home winning streak in Nov.

The wrong team is favored. Giants 34-NE 24

BTW easypics, SF went 1-13 on 3rd down.

MOST MONEY ON GIANT AND UNDER.

In there first match up when they played they did not have there leading rusher Bradshaw and there reciever Hakeem Nicks. This whole revenge factor for Brady is non sense thats what I have been hearing. They are 2 teams that want to win Bad. I can see this line moveing to 2.5 or even 2 by game time. I really feel that the Giants should be favored but vegas sets the line to where people are putting the money not on which team is the strongest. Both of these teams got into the superbowl with a little luck but whats that saying it sometime better to be a little lucky then good. I will post more when it gets closer to game time. As of right now Giants +3

My first post on page one contains facts pertained  to most games, but one thing has just dawned on me was that on every supper bowl  games the early public favorite usually won because big money came pouring in @ the final minutes.

GLTA

Brady will need a healthy Gronk in the shootout type of game this is going to be.  If he is a step slow with the injury, that will put even more pressure on Brady.  The Giants front four will be gettin after it!!!  Also remember, Brady loves to take advantage of blitzes.  Problem is the Giants only need to rush 4.

Quote Originally Posted by BreakaBookie:

Now that the dust has settled...... a few words....

I am still happy   ? about my 49ers pick..... I trust my logic of the home field advantage and better defense   ?  playing in those rainy conditions..... I feel if I go with that formula I'll win more than lose, and I have won more than lost over my capping career...... the only place obviously I was wrong was the special teams advantage that I thought SF had..... I was under  lol the impression that Ted Ginn would play, and it turned out he was a bigger loss than could've been predicted..... Weatherford had a great game as did the Giants coverage teams.... hats off to them....

In my opinion, sheer will and (  DEFENSE AND QB ) and playoff experience won that football game..... lol

Sorry Break...

Gotta Break your balls.

                                               

             "Better Defense" ?

How many Giants 3rd down conversions to Frisco's ?

How difficult and rare  to shutdown a team down to deuce points in the playoffs , 

especially vs  gunslingin' QB Matty Ice ?

                                          

Giants offense is much better than the 49ers offense.... that was a given....

which defense played better?

it's debateable....


which defense was better going into that game?

49ers all year.... that's all I meant....

back to this game.....


listen to the list of qbs that Brady beat since the Giants Loss..

Mark Sanchez twice
Tyler Palko
Vince Young
Dan Orlovsky
Rex Grossman
Tim Tebow twice
Matt Moore
Ryan Fitzpatrick


I still don't understand this line

Hey Break,

Don't forget the Giants lost to Washington twice (Very crappy team) and to the Seahawks at home as a huge favorite. They also lost to Philly and San Fran. I was liking the Giants when I first saw this line but the Giant love is getting out of hand. Vegas and the public has been backing the Giants for weeks but they still have a line of Giants getting 3. Something smells fishy on this line. If the Giant love keeps pouring in I am gonna have to take the PATS LARGEEEEE. Gotta see injury report on Gronkowski first though.

Easy,

They also got absolutely waxed in New Orleans and the NFC Least (Eagles fan here) was not a great division. Hell wasn't even a good division this year. Also, got to take into consideration that the Pats have never lost to the same team twice in one year. Also, take into consideration that the GMen were playing big public underdog in Super Bowl 42 and look how that turned out. Also, (not enough pick evidence yet) almost everytime the expert predictions on wagerline is 90% or greater on one side it almost always loses. All I am saying is tread carefully.

Thinking the difference in this game is the NYG def. front. The team that generates preassure to the QB wins this game.

PERSONALLY ---RIGHT NOW I'M WONDERING ABOUT THE PRO BOWL AND HOW TO CAP THAT ONE----NFC-4 LOOKS GOOD BUT THE OVER IS HIGH.

Counter-Point: The 49ers clearly put more pressure on Eli then the GMen did on Alex Smith. The better WB and team that made fewer mistakes won. Look at the stats. Eli threw the ball 60 times and was sacked a few times and knocked down over 20 times. He was pressured 33% of the time.

To your point: The Patriots struggle to get a pass rush on opposing QB's and that is a serious liability vs Eli Manning as he goes through his receiver progressions very well. This could be trouble for a thin, underwhelming secondary such as the Patriots.

As of today I would take the Gmen and the under but that depends on Gronkowski's status for the super bowl (looked like pollard rolled his ankle pretty good on the various replays) and the publics perception of the game come Super Bowl Sunday. Thinkink I will fade the public which will definitely be leaning the over (thus the under pick) and will fade whatever side the majority is leaning towards. GLTA

I think aceofspades stole his analysis from my website, geez.

If you think that this is the same Giants team that lost to Washington and Seahawks you have lost your mind

For me it all boils down to Brady's performance last week against the Ravens.  If Brady's game had been a 'Brady game' then I would take the Giants and the points in the SB....BUT Brady had a bad game last week and he RARELY has 2 bad games in a row. 

First off - let's just recap:

Baltimore = sure handed Lee Evans drops the game winner, and then Billy Cundiff misses a chip shot that would of at least meant O.T......

San Francisco = a rookie returner muffs not one but 2 punts! One goes for the go ahead TD, while the other is the game winner in O,T.!!!

In my opinion, due to a dropped pass and a couple of special teams mistakes the 2 best teams are not playing in the Superbowl this year - but am I bitter? Nahh..........

 

 

It's been four years and both teams' rosters have changed significantly, but the fundamental philosophies of each organization remain unchanged.  The Giants balanced offense can hang with New England if by chance it becomes a shootout.  The more likely scenario is the Giants winning a low-scoring game led by their Defensive Line.  The NE passing game is all about protection and timing.  The Giants never-ending wave of QB-attacking defensive lineman will rattle Brady the entire game and Eli will do what needs to be done to get the win.  For what it's worth, I'm not a fan of either team.  Just callin' what I see.

Giants ML LARGE!

Under 1st half 27.5 LARGE!

Under 55 LARGE!

Giants ML and Under 55 Parlay.

I know it's easy to say four years after the fact, but I was all over the Giants ML and the under then, and I like both plays even better this year!

GLTA