Posted:
#101
line now CINCI -1 ! What's moving this from -2.5????????
New York at Cincinnati (01/09/2010)
Posted:
#102
Another thing I was looking at was how the Jets have fared against top 15 rushing attacks. By my account they have faced them in 6 weeks during the season.
Pre-Jenkins injury both Miami and Ten had success running against them.
Week 8 rematch against the Dolphins the Jets completely shut down the run game but still lost thanks to back-to-back kr returns for td by Ted Gine.
Week 10 Jones-Drew lit them up.
Week 12 Carolina struggles to run on them. I blame this in part to Delhomme sucking as he completed less 1/2 of his passes while throwing 4 picks to gang green.
Don't get me wrong this is the best the run d in the league, but they have been run on. I don't think Benson will go off but something like 22 for 94 is reasonable.
glta go bungles!
Posted:
#105
A lot to think about in this game and there are some pretty compelling arguments for Cincy in this thread if you look at key wins or losses during the season.
Irish is right - that Jets 10-7 loss to Atlanta is troubling.
And Shickson's idea re. Cincy's holding out a game plan to learn from what the Jets did last week is also interesting.
However, when I just look at the way I think these two teams match up specifically against one another, what I keep coming back to is the struggles the Nati. offense has had in it's last 8 weeks.
Which is that they're averaging 15.6 points a game.
In their last 22 red zone trips they only have 7 touchdowns.
They are the worst scoring team in the playoffs (at 24th).
And Cedric Benson hasn't scored one since November 8th.
Ocho Cinco himself said the offense "has been struggling all season" and we saw some evidence last week that if he gets blanketed by a shut-down corner, taking away their ability to stretch the field, their running game will struggle as well.
Another stat I found is that Carson Palmer's numbers drop significantly when he faces 5 rushers instead of 4, and we know for a fact that Jets really like rushing more than 4 guys at the quarterback.
You think about all of the above and realize they're going up against the Jets defense and to me, it's just a mismatch.
On the Jet's side of the ball, the Bengals obviously do have a strong defense and are getting a couple of healthy guys back, though they lose Ray Maulauga. And yes, Sanchez is a rook, although has had NO turnovers in the last two weeks based on a recent awareness that it's important, and he is no stranger to big game atmospheres. We also know the kid is scrappy and not afraid to run for a first down or scramble to make a play if he needs to.
The Jets, and I had to look at this one twice, have averaged 172 yards rushing a game this season!? In the NFL?! Those are college numbers man! Regardless of what happens today, that's just sick. Faneca and Mangold are both going to the pro bowl and as a team they broke the franchise record cashing in 2756 yards on the season.
Everyone keeps bringing up the fact that the last two teams they faced tanked their games allowing them to roll into the playoffs and while that is absolutely the truth it still allowed New York to create an enormous amount of momentum and confidence coming into this game.
One other X-factor is the Jets actually have more playoff experienced guys on their roster than the Bengals, 26 to 13.
All the Chris Henry V. Rex Ryan braggadocio can just be thrown out the window in my opinion.
The guys are going to decide this game on the field and unless Cincinnati produces a dramatic turnaround offensively from what they've shown in the last 2 months of football, the Jets are going to win this game.
Irish is right - that Jets 10-7 loss to Atlanta is troubling.
And Shickson's idea re. Cincy's holding out a game plan to learn from what the Jets did last week is also interesting.
However, when I just look at the way I think these two teams match up specifically against one another, what I keep coming back to is the struggles the Nati. offense has had in it's last 8 weeks.
Which is that they're averaging 15.6 points a game.
In their last 22 red zone trips they only have 7 touchdowns.
They are the worst scoring team in the playoffs (at 24th).
And Cedric Benson hasn't scored one since November 8th.
Ocho Cinco himself said the offense "has been struggling all season" and we saw some evidence last week that if he gets blanketed by a shut-down corner, taking away their ability to stretch the field, their running game will struggle as well.
Another stat I found is that Carson Palmer's numbers drop significantly when he faces 5 rushers instead of 4, and we know for a fact that Jets really like rushing more than 4 guys at the quarterback.
You think about all of the above and realize they're going up against the Jets defense and to me, it's just a mismatch.
On the Jet's side of the ball, the Bengals obviously do have a strong defense and are getting a couple of healthy guys back, though they lose Ray Maulauga. And yes, Sanchez is a rook, although has had NO turnovers in the last two weeks based on a recent awareness that it's important, and he is no stranger to big game atmospheres. We also know the kid is scrappy and not afraid to run for a first down or scramble to make a play if he needs to.
The Jets, and I had to look at this one twice, have averaged 172 yards rushing a game this season!? In the NFL?! Those are college numbers man! Regardless of what happens today, that's just sick. Faneca and Mangold are both going to the pro bowl and as a team they broke the franchise record cashing in 2756 yards on the season.
Everyone keeps bringing up the fact that the last two teams they faced tanked their games allowing them to roll into the playoffs and while that is absolutely the truth it still allowed New York to create an enormous amount of momentum and confidence coming into this game.
One other X-factor is the Jets actually have more playoff experienced guys on their roster than the Bengals, 26 to 13.
All the Chris Henry V. Rex Ryan braggadocio can just be thrown out the window in my opinion.
The guys are going to decide this game on the field and unless Cincinnati produces a dramatic turnaround offensively from what they've shown in the last 2 months of football, the Jets are going to win this game.
Posted:
#106
A lot to think about in this game and there are some pretty compelling arguments for Cincy in this thread if you look at key wins or losses during the season.
Irish is right - that Jets 10-7 loss to Atlanta is troubling.
And Shickson's idea re. Cincy's holding out a game plan to learn from what the Jets did last week is also interesting.
However, when I just look at the way I think these two teams match up specifically against one another, what I keep coming back to is the struggles the Nati. offense has had in it's last 8 weeks.
Which is that they're averaging 15.6 points a game.
In their last 22 red zone trips they only have 7 touchdowns.
They are the worst scoring team in the playoffs (at 24th).
And Cedric Benson hasn't scored one since November 8th.
Ocho Cinco himself said the offense "has been struggling all season" and we saw some evidence last week that if he gets blanketed by a shut-down corner, taking away their ability to stretch the field, their running game will struggle as well.
Another stat I found is that Carson Palmer's numbers drop significantly when he faces 5 rushers instead of 4, and we know for a fact that Jets really like rushing more than 4 guys at the quarterback.
You think about all of the above and realize they're going up against the Jets defense and to me, it's just a mismatch.
On the Jet's side of the ball, the Bengals obviously do have a strong defense and are getting a couple of healthy guys back, though they lose Ray Maulauga. And yes, Sanchez is a rook, although has had NO turnovers in the last two weeks based on a recent awareness that it's important, and he is no stranger to big game atmospheres. We also know the kid is scrappy and not afraid to run for a first down or scramble to make a play if he needs to.
The Jets, and I had to look at this one twice, have averaged 172 yards rushing a game this season!? In the NFL?! Those are college numbers man! Regardless of what happens today, that's just sick. Faneca and Mangold are both going to the pro bowl and as a team they broke the franchise record cashing in 2756 yards on the season.
Everyone keeps bringing up the fact that the last two teams they faced tanked their games allowing them to roll into the playoffs and while that is absolutely the truth it still allowed New York to create an enormous amount of momentum and confidence coming into this game.
One other X-factor is the Jets actually have more playoff experienced guys on their roster than the Bengals, 26 to 13.
All the Chris Henry V. Rex Ryan braggadocio can just be thrown out the window in my opinion.
The guys are going to decide this game on the field and unless Cincinnati produces a dramatic turnaround offensively from what they've shown in the last 2 months of football, the Jets are going to win this game.
Irish is right - that Jets 10-7 loss to Atlanta is troubling.
And Shickson's idea re. Cincy's holding out a game plan to learn from what the Jets did last week is also interesting.
However, when I just look at the way I think these two teams match up specifically against one another, what I keep coming back to is the struggles the Nati. offense has had in it's last 8 weeks.
Which is that they're averaging 15.6 points a game.
In their last 22 red zone trips they only have 7 touchdowns.
They are the worst scoring team in the playoffs (at 24th).
And Cedric Benson hasn't scored one since November 8th.
Ocho Cinco himself said the offense "has been struggling all season" and we saw some evidence last week that if he gets blanketed by a shut-down corner, taking away their ability to stretch the field, their running game will struggle as well.
Another stat I found is that Carson Palmer's numbers drop significantly when he faces 5 rushers instead of 4, and we know for a fact that Jets really like rushing more than 4 guys at the quarterback.
You think about all of the above and realize they're going up against the Jets defense and to me, it's just a mismatch.
On the Jet's side of the ball, the Bengals obviously do have a strong defense and are getting a couple of healthy guys back, though they lose Ray Maulauga. And yes, Sanchez is a rook, although has had NO turnovers in the last two weeks based on a recent awareness that it's important, and he is no stranger to big game atmospheres. We also know the kid is scrappy and not afraid to run for a first down or scramble to make a play if he needs to.
The Jets, and I had to look at this one twice, have averaged 172 yards rushing a game this season!? In the NFL?! Those are college numbers man! Regardless of what happens today, that's just sick. Faneca and Mangold are both going to the pro bowl and as a team they broke the franchise record cashing in 2756 yards on the season.
Everyone keeps bringing up the fact that the last two teams they faced tanked their games allowing them to roll into the playoffs and while that is absolutely the truth it still allowed New York to create an enormous amount of momentum and confidence coming into this game.
One other X-factor is the Jets actually have more playoff experienced guys on their roster than the Bengals, 26 to 13.
All the Chris Henry V. Rex Ryan braggadocio can just be thrown out the window in my opinion.
The guys are going to decide this game on the field and unless Cincinnati produces a dramatic turnaround offensively from what they've shown in the last 2 months of football, the Jets are going to win this game.
Posted:
#107
Jets at Cinn -3 O/U 34
Out of 32 games these teams played, total score went under 34 pts in 6 games for Cinn and 7 games for Jets. 13/32 is 40% or 60% of time score went over 34 pts.
Contrary to general opinion, cold weather is not a factor in over/under statistics. Cross winds are but that is another analysis.
Q.E.D.
Play of the day is UNDER
If you tease 6pts with some other bet, you get over 28pts.
Now total only went under 28pts in 7 out of 32 games. That's 22% or 78% of the time total went over 28pts
I don't tease because it is not cost effective. Better to parlay but that is another analysis. I don't parlay either because they don't pay you enough. 1/2 X 1/2 = 1/4. Payout should be 4/1 but it is only like 2/1.
Out of 32 games these teams played, total score went under 34 pts in 6 games for Cinn and 7 games for Jets. 13/32 is 40% or 60% of time score went over 34 pts.
Contrary to general opinion, cold weather is not a factor in over/under statistics. Cross winds are but that is another analysis.
Q.E.D.
Play of the day is UNDER
If you tease 6pts with some other bet, you get over 28pts.
Now total only went under 28pts in 7 out of 32 games. That's 22% or 78% of the time total went over 28pts
I don't tease because it is not cost effective. Better to parlay but that is another analysis. I don't parlay either because they don't pay you enough. 1/2 X 1/2 = 1/4. Payout should be 4/1 but it is only like 2/1.
Posted:
#108
Quote Originally Posted by garretdoherty:
cincy wins this game lads i am sure. jets made a good run to make the playoffs but cincy have been the better team over the season and will not waste the wins they had over pits and balt to go out in the 1st round of playoffs.its a big play for me here and dont need to study it too much.cincinatti m.line
cincy wins this game lads i am sure. jets made a good run to make the playoffs but cincy have been the better team over the season and will not waste the wins they had over pits and balt to go out in the 1st round of playoffs.its a big play for me here and dont need to study it too much.cincinatti m.line
It doesn't matter what either one of these teams have done over the course of the season. You might as well view this as the start of a new season altogether. The Jets are hot and the Bengals have been in a downward spiral, as of late. (I'm not talking about last Sunday night's game either)
The Jets will have more emotion coming into this game and the Bengals offense will not have the confidence needed to propel them into the lead. I see the Bengals playing from behind early... Wether that is 3, or 7 points, the Jets should score first and let their defense hold a Bengals offense that has been flat. I look for a running/defensive game and my personal opinion is that the Jets hold the edge in both.
Final play... Jets +2.5 ($3)
Good luck to all!!
Posted:
#113
alright, bengals fans, looks like conditions are right for a good home game, jets on the road even with best D statistically, Bengals D pretty stout as well, i see identical teams, save for one BIG exception, the QBs, carson palmer is light years ahead of sanchez in smarts-managaing a tough playoff game.... 20-12 bengals, side is strong, total is up in the air...
Posted:
#117
I like the Bengals in this spot and here is why...
1. I have a tough time trusting a streaky Sanchez rookie in this spot.
2. Jets will rely on the run, in which Cincy is very tough against.
3. Peko and Geathers back in action after being out last game. Making #2 even a better point.
4. Cincy at home.
I keep seeing people reference "last game". Please be smarter with your money than that. You saw "balls to the wall Jets" vs. "yeah we'll be there Bengals". This is the playoffs. No comparison.
Good luck whichever side you take.
Posted:
#123
This is the ONLY time of the year I get to watch the N.F.L. as I sped
all other Sunday afternoons writing about what happened on Saturdays.
Caveat firmly in place, and these are all .05u wagers with my boxing action that hit last nite.
Jets buying 15 for NYJ+17.5. Like the better defense here. Jets are playing well of late, healthier. Though that Qb's passing ratio could advance the Nati SU.
bigeiii
Caveat firmly in place, and these are all .05u wagers with my boxing action that hit last nite.
Jets buying 15 for NYJ+17.5. Like the better defense here. Jets are playing well of late, healthier. Though that Qb's passing ratio could advance the Nati SU.
bigeiii
Posted:
#124
Quote Originally Posted by Sandman23:
Boys....STOP trying to disect the game. I've done the research for you and it's free....trust me, play all 4 games below and thank me Sunday night. Sandman
Cincinnati -2.5
Philadelphia +3.5
New England -175
Green Bay -1 ( very large wager !!! )
Are you kidding me...? I'm not jumping off that cliff!! The only game I like in your post is the Packers game!!
Good luck!!
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