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New York at Cincinnati (01/09/2010)

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Posted: #51
I will not think for ONE SECOND that what we saw out there last weekend was anything but a walk thru practice for Cincy... all they were doing was watching to see what the Jets could throw at them in a must win playoff type game (but only for the Jets). Cincy got a nice look at the Jets #1 offense last week from every possible angle... and what did the Jets see?
Might as well been the scout team... that's what the Bengals were doin... SCOUTIN'

I see a blasting coming the Jets' way... they have won what they know will be the biggest win of the year... they scraped into the playoffs... yes their Defense is tremendous... no disrespect... and yes I HAVE heard the Defense wins championships line a million times...

But Quarterbacks win games... and get you to the Championships... Carson palmer's QB rating last week was below 2.... yes TWO.. No typo...

Are you trying to tell me that a guy who goes the whole year.. fifteen games without completing at least 52% of his passes all of a sudden in one week can only complete 9%???

Are you trying to tell me a team that sweeps it's division (a REAL division) and only allows 98 yards of rushing against per game over the first 15 games somehow ... OOPPS!!! there he goes....
They allowed 250+ rushing yards!!!

This is what the NFL competition commitee will be talking about this Spring in their meetings... Yes the Jets CAN beat the Bengals...
But what we saw was a set-up... The wise Bengals took the opportunity that presented itself to them and ran with it...
NY now has to come up with a whole new gameplan and stray from their bread and butter or....

I'm takin the Bengals all the way...
It will be VERY COLD in Cincy this weekend
Warm up however you can... But Cincy in the Under for me.


NYJ-13
CIN-20
 
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Posted: #52
Jets  Jets Jets
 
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Posted: #53
I have to agree with you on the under due to the weather being so cold that ball will be like trying to throw/kick a rock
 
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Posted: #54
Seriously looking at the over here.  34.5 is awfully low, whatever the weather.  Not sure I will play a side, but there is no way I would take the JETS in this spot.

J-E-T-S:

Just
End
The
Season



 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by BreakaBookie:

JETS fan here.... keep that in mind while reading my posts....

If you analyze the JETS losses..... you will see that all, except 2, were by 3-4-5 points..... those 2 were NE on the road, and NO on the road.....

now those are high-powered offenses.... and the JETS were very much in those game if not for Sanchez throwing INTs for scores...

 

The point I am trying to make is that IF the Jets lose, it is not going to be by more than 5 points.... and the reason I say that is because only 2 of their 7 losses have been by more and CINCY is not a high-powered offense...

 

now, putting week 17 aside..... the JETS have been playing their best football....

 

Cincy has been playing their worst football.....

 

I have the line at 2.5, that may be a little low so I was thinking about buying it to 4.5....

 

but this game is a great game to TEASE.... 2 team 6 point teaser, and throw in GB +8.5 and you have a pretty good shot im my opinion....

 

early lean of course

 

With all due respect the Jets playing their best ball the last two weeks against teams who were resting for the playoffs is a bit misleading isn't it?

 

Cincy did not show up last week because they had nothing to play for. They also got beat by Minnesota on the road and SD at home. Both are #2 seeds in the playoffs. Neither of these teams are going to beat a top seed are they?

 

I agree with Danstyk here, I can't take the Jets. If I HAD to pick a side it would be the Bengals.

 

GL to all.

 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by wonbadappl:

Here's my question:

Looking at all 4 matchups this weekend.....and looking for value....all the visiting teams have a great chance at winning.....so here goes:

 

Jets     ML +110 (kicked Cin butt last week)

Eagles ML +165 (last year Pitt/Balt.. was the only time I can remember that a team beat the same team 3X in one season...look it up)

Balt     ML +160  (with Welker hurt and Brady banged up...Balt has a shot)

GreenBay   +1 -110 (GB is the better of the 2 teams)

 

 

 

lay $100 to win $2662.............just IMO

 

Like em all except the Iglles, just don't see them coming into Dallas and taking this one. Dallas will win thier first playoff game since 1996 on Saturday night. So take the Dallas ML, instead, and give up a little leverage for a better shot at winning...IMHO.
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by Shickson:

I will not think for ONE SECOND that what we saw out there last weekend was anything but a walk thru practice for Cincy... all they were doing was watching to see what the Jets could throw at them in a must win playoff type game (but only for the Jets). Cincy got a nice look at the Jets #1 offense last week from every possible angle... and what did the Jets see?
Might as well been the scout team... that's what the Bengals were doin... SCOUTIN'

I see a blasting coming the Jets' way... they have won what they know will be the biggest win of the year... they scraped into the playoffs... yes their Defense is tremendous... no disrespect... and yes I HAVE heard the Defense wins championships line a million times...

But Quarterbacks win games... and get you to the Championships... Carson palmer's QB rating last week was below 2.... yes TWO.. No typo...

Are you trying to tell me that a guy who goes the whole year.. fifteen games without completing at least 52% of his passes all of a sudden in one week can only complete 9%???

Are you trying to tell me a team that sweeps it's division (a REAL division) and only allows 98 yards of rushing against per game over the first 15 games somehow ... OOPPS!!! there he goes....
They allowed 250+ rushing yards!!!

This is what the NFL competition commitee will be talking about this Spring in their meetings... Yes the Jets CAN beat the Bengals...
But what we saw was a set-up... The wise Bengals took the opportunity that presented itself to them and ran with it...
NY now has to come up with a whole new gameplan and stray from their bread and butter or....

I'm takin the Bengals all the way...
It will be VERY COLD in Cincy this weekend
Warm up however you can... But Cincy in the Under for me.


NYJ-13
CIN-20
Carson Palmer, by far, one of THE most overrated QBs in the league. What has he ever accomplished? He always gets hurt, and the ONLY reason Cincy has had success this year is because of Cedric, not the passing game. Jets easily shut down an ailing Benson, control the clock with their running game, and take this one 17-13. That's money
 
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Posted: #58
Taking Cincy. Final score 24 to 17.
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by wonbadappl:

Here's my question:

Looking at all 4 matchups this weekend.....and looking for value....all the visiting teams have a great chance at winning.....so here goes:

 

Jets     ML +110 (kicked Cin butt last week)

Eagles ML +165 (last year Pitt/Balt.. was the only time I can remember that a team beat the same team 3X in one season...look it up)

Balt     ML +160  (with Welker hurt and Brady banged up...Balt has a shot)

GreenBay   +1 -110 (GB is the better of the 2 teams)

 

 

 

lay $100 to win $2662.............just IMO

 


I did look it up.  It's been done 12 times out of 19 tries since 1970.  12-7 is a pretty good record, my friend.  It being hard to beat a team 3 times is a myth and history shows it.
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by KingKenny13:

Yes the total is 34.5 not 45

I like the Jets also as a DOG -2.5 and just looked at the forcast for Sat temp in the Teens with below freezing wind chill... Colder than a witches TITeeeee. Field will be frozen and Leaning Gang Green D to keep it Under...

 


Check out where it opened....45.  Early lines can be money.
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by Henry-Lilly:


I did look it up.  It's been done 12 times out of 19 tries since 1970.  12-7 is a pretty good record, my friend.  It being hard to beat a team 3 times is a myth and history shows it.

regardless of the trend.... it's hard to beat a team 3 times in one season...

the reason why is because the team that lost twice, is good enough to make playoffs with 2 losses against the same team.... meaning they had to be two wins better against common opponents in the same division (not exactly common throughout the schedule) .... in this case it was the Giants....

but this is not the Eagles/Dallas thread....

 

going back to the stat....

of those 12 wins... how many were in the first round of playoffs?

 

I "assume" that most of those 12 wins were between a top seed in the playoffs vs. a wildcard... which most likely would not have been in the first round...

 

i.e. the Steelers/Ravens last year.... that game was very close... but I bet the gap is much further in those other 11 games....

 

 

 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by charlielo55:

Carson Palmer, by far, one of THE most overrated QBs in the league. What has he ever accomplished? He always gets hurt, and the ONLY reason Cincy has had success this year is because of Cedric, not the passing game. Jets easily shut down an ailing Benson, control the clock with their running game, and take this one 17-13. That's money


BOL CHUCK!!!
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by BreakaBookie:

regardless of the trend.... it's hard to beat a team 3 times in one season...

the reason why is because the team that lost twice, is good enough to make playoffs with 2 losses against the same team.... meaning they had to be two wins better against common opponents in the same division (not exactly common throughout the schedule) .... in this case it was the Giants....

but this is not the Eagles/Dallas thread....

 

going back to the stat....

of those 12 wins... how many were in the first round of playoffs?

 

I "assume" that most of those 12 wins were between a top seed in the playoffs vs. a wildcard... which most likely would not have been in the first round...

 

i.e. the Steelers/Ravens last year.... that game was very close... but I bet the gap is much further in those other 11 games....

 

 

 
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Posted: #64
breakabookie- i been following your picks all season. you have been doing a hell of a job, and when i look through the thread, yours is one i always look for. i use the thread for info, thats all. i play big. the reason for the post is this the first game i completely disagree with u.  i respect your reasoning, but i truly beleive the bengals will show up for this game at home.. thank you for all your great advice you have given all season..
 
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Posted: #65

Thats fin funny.. People are actualllly going for the jets?!?

Cinci did not smell the playoffs in a while. cinci came damn close to beating the chargers, they beat pits 2wice, baltimore 2wice (sweeped their dividion) is this a jokee cinci gets it done for their beloved Player that passed away

 
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Posted: #66

Quote Originally Posted by POKERDAWG:

breakabookie- i been following your picks all season. you have been doing a hell of a job, and when i look through the thread, yours is one i always look for. i use the thread for info, thats all. i play big. the reason for the post is this the first game i completely disagree with u.  i respect your reasoning, but i truly beleive the bengals will show up for this game at home.. thank you for all your great advice you have given all season..

Thank you, that's a nice compliment.... if I only bet what I post then I would be doing much better haha!

as far as the pick... that's why I started with "keep in mind I'm a JETS fan"

becuase... I have a biased toward them and I always think they are gonna win.... but becuase it is my favorite team, I post in here not to necessarily give my pick, (which we know is JETS +4) but to give information about the game....

if your on the JETS, I would take the points becuase the moneyline is just not worth the payout....

 

 
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Posted: #67
Always check these threads.Handful of good cappers though mostly non game related BS with some who can't even pick their noses. haha.Breakabookie how have your picks been last month or so.
Do you keep track ?
 
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Posted: #68

if you see me on a thread with a college pick.... run away....

if you see me on a thread with an NFL pick.... use my logic to cap your game, not necessarily my pick..... I think I'm pretty good and this season has been one of the better ones for me.... week 16 was amazing as I hit on the TB ML vs. NO which was my best pick.... week 17 I faired well reversing CHI and GB....

but I got murdered by the bowl games....

I'm much better at the NFL.... most people find college easier....

I dont' keep track of my picks because I don't have the time and co-workers bet on my name so it gets complicated... I have no idea what percent I am at... I used to do the Microsoft Excell thing and document everything but that's too much....

If there is a game I see that I like... I come in and post my thoughts, try to back it up with stats.... and I usually hit on my good bets...

Playoffs I am usually weak at.... they are hard becuase all the teams are good, and you only have 4 games per week....

I havn't lost a superbowl since I took Oakland against Tampa Bay....

I post here to help other people out with info.... I rarely brag about winnings (except week 5 where I hit everything LOL)

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #69
Cincinnati Bengals | In-Depth
  ATS* O/U*
Tank Johnson DT Prob Sat - Foot - 01/08/10 notesJohnson is probable for Saturday's Wild Card Round against the Jets as he has been dealing with plantar fasciitis all season. 0-0 0-0
Tom Nelson DB Prob Sat - Ankle - 01/08/10 notesNelson is probable for Saturday's Wild Card Round against the Jets due to an ankle injury. 0-0 0-0
Shaun Smith DT Prob Sat - Ankle - 01/08/10 notesSmith is probable for Saturday's Wild Card Round against the Jets due to an ankle injury. 0-0 0-0
Larry Johnson RB Prob Sat - Knee - 01/08/10 notesJohnson is probable for Saturday's Wild Card Round against the Jets due to a knee injury. 0-0 0-0
Domata Peko DT Prob Sat - Knee - 01/04/10 notesPeko is probable for Saturday's Wild Card Round against the Jets as he deals with a knee injury. 1-4 2-3
Chris Crocker S Prob Sat - Ankle - 01/04/10 notesCrocker is probable for Saturday's Wild Card Round against the Jets as he deals with an ankle injury. 1-2 2-1
Robert Geathers DE Prob Sat - Knee - 01/04/10 notesGeathers is probable for Saturday's Wild Card Round against the Jets as he deals with a knee injury. 0-1 1-0
Chad OchoCinco WR Prob Sat - Knee - 01/04/10 notesOchoCinco is probable for Sunday's Wild Card Round against the Jets as he deals with a knee injury. 0-0 0-0
Chris Henry WR out for season - Arm - 11/08/09 notesHenry was on the injured reserve list due to a broken arm but passed away from injuries sustained from falling out of the back of a pickup truck during a domestic dispute with his fiancee. 2-6 3-5
 
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New York Jets | In-Depth
  ATS* O/U*
Thomas Jones RB Prob Sat - Knee - 01/07/10 notesJones is probable for Saturday's Wild Card Round against the Bengals due to a knee ailment. 0-0 0-0
David Harris LB Prob Sat - Ankle - 01/05/10 notesHarris is probable for Saturday's Wild Card Round against the Bengals due to a sprained ankle. 0-0 0-0
Donald Strickland CB Ques Sat - Quadricep - 01/04/10 notesStrickland is questionable for Saturday's Wild Card Round against the Bengals as he deals with a quad injury. 1-0 1-0
Larry Izzo LB I-R - Neck - 12/10/09 notesIzzo has been placed on the injured reserve list with a back and neck injury. 3-1 2-2
Leon Washington RB I-R - Ankle - 10/25/09 notesWashington will miss the rest of this season after suffering a broken fibula last game against the Raiders. 5-4 4-4-1
 
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Posted: #71
Cincinnati -2.5
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by BreakaBookie:

regardless of the trend.... it's hard to beat a team 3 times in one season...

the reason why is because the team that lost twice, is good enough to make playoffs with 2 losses against the same team.... meaning they had to be two wins better against common opponents in the same division (not exactly common throughout the schedule) .... in this case it was the Giants....

but this is not the Eagles/Dallas thread....

 

going back to the stat....

of those 12 wins... how many were in the first round of playoffs?

 

I "assume" that most of those 12 wins were between a top seed in the playoffs vs. a wildcard... which most likely would not have been in the first round...

 

i.e. the Steelers/Ravens last year.... that game was very close... but I bet the gap is much further in those other 11 games....

 

 



Break-  You're dismissing the trend and then stating the obvious.  If your logic is that it is hard to beat a team 3 times because they will be playing a playoff team the 3rd time, then just say it....it's hard to win in the playoffs.  But it has nothing to do with having to play the same team and history shows that.  It's just hard to win in the playoffs.  But don't try to dismiss a solid history just because it doesn't go with your pick.  Good luck to you this weekend, because if you are using that logic you are going to need it.


 
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Posted: #73
Just checked your track record not necessarily the "logic".Better luck to you breakabookie.
 
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Posted: #74

Ask yourself who wins if both teams have only 1 turnover.

 
 
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Posted: #75

The Jets beat up on two teams that didn't care if they lost over the last two weeks!?!?  And now the coach is making cocky ovatures and the media is on board, just like last year until they crashed to Earth in the last month of the season last year.  For God's sake, before these last two "beatdowns" that the Jets administered, they lost to Atlanta who was playing with a back up QB and no Micheal Turner!!  Yeah, they played well the last two weeks.......why do you think the spread was -10 for the Jets last week???  Because Vegas new the beatdown was coming and hoped they could balance the book with some suckers on Cincy!! 

I'm staying with Cincy, who is playing a game filled with intense emotion, just like the Jets game was in their stadium last week......the difference is that Cincy's 7th ranked run defense will be on the field for the whole game and there will be a gameplan in place this week.......unlike last week.  20-13 Cincy.  

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