New Orleans at Philadelphia (01/04/2014)

So much to quibble about on this forum, but since you decided to start crap with me I'll go here.

I don't know where (if) you do your research, but the Eagles have a better offense than the saints 6.6 yards per play to 6.3 ypp for the saints, or 2nd only to Denver against the saints at 5th per football outsiders.  So maybe you should look into that stuff before you bet on conjecture.

Sure the saints have the experience edge but don't underestimate how smart kelly is.  experience is the only real edge for payton.  and brees s certainly better than foles (not statistically, but I get it), but the eagles have a ridiculous edge in the run game wth the number 1 rushing offense vs the saints 20th rush defense, conversely the saints bring the 19th ranked  rush offense against the 12th best rush defense of philly (actually surprised it's that low, noone has been running on philly).  (all per Football Outsiders)

Further while the saints pass defense is 6th they just lost their safety vaccaro and are forced to play roman harper who has been terrble.  

Again I don't know where you got your numbers, but the eagles are the 25th pass offense, UP from the 32nd that they were 8 games ago and if you understand defensive schemes, you would know that they switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4 this year and these kinds of changes take actual games to improve and has begun rounding into form only recently, hence the improvement, so I think you are selling them short assuming that ranking is accurate and here's why...

FO lists the eagles as the 3rd best team in football (behind broncos and seahawks) weighted for recent play.  More specifically though, teams that beat the saints on the road include the jets and panthers, both who have excellent fronts and highly vulnerable secondaries.  Key element, they apply QB pressure (and forced turnovers).  All phlly has done during the andy reid era is draft pass rushers and they are starting to get this scheme and have been very solid recently.  Meanwhile, the saints just benched their starting left tackle for a rookie as they have had O line problems.  Expect brees to be under pressure all day and with philly continuing to protect the ball at an elite rate, and create a lot of turnovers, one turnover could be massive.

this non home filed advantage for philly is stupid too imo.  They came into the year on a bad streak, but won their last 4 home games, so if you want to overlook the improvement of a team adjusting to new schemes and a first year coach and a better QB (foles over vick), go ahead and blindly bet the public team.  I'm a fan of making money and with the line moving to philly -3, apparently, sharp bettors are with me.

EAGLES -2.5 (booked on Thursday) LARGE

GLA!