Baltimore at Pittsburgh (01/18/2009)

Quote Originally Posted by bentladdle:

Stlaker, thanks, makes sense and I will consider trying to cover my bets  I made on Ravens with some props at the Palms Casino. I always like the prop that: Will defense or special teams score a TD. Or who (player) will score first or will a FG or TD be first score. THESE are the analysis and insight I like getting from Covers. BOL Stalker. Like your avatar, makes me laugh.

For some of those prop bets I'd be leaning heavy toward taking one of these kickers to score first. Which also means I'd be taking a field goal as the first score.

I think the field will be fine again. Most of the time the field is so shitty because the local high schools play their playoff games there and Pitt plays their home games there. But those have been done for almost a month now. The only way the field becomes a problem is if wind and low temps come with the snow. That could cause some players to slip or lose their feet. The "weatherman" says low 20's with snow showers but those guys are never right. What other job do you know of where you can be wrong 50% of the time and still look like you know what you're talking about?

wow 64% on the ravens that tells me the steelers will win..

ravens are banged up and lets be honest titans beat themselves

last week.. I know its hard to beat a team 3 times in a row

but the steelers are rolling and will cover the number this week.

 They beat the Ravens three times in the 2002 season. Overall when the Steelers played a division opponent for the third time, they've gone 7-0 in the playoff game.  Like I said I'm not a big trend guy. I was just surprised to see that Pittsburgh has done it so often

thank you both for these great trends..... does anyone have any idea about the ATS trends of the third meeting?

Not teasing, rarely do. On some sites you can adjust the points by 10 on the spread and/or the O/U. Like in this game it's at 6 (+or-) & 34 right now, so I can give the 10 to Pitts and take them +4 or give the 10 to Balt and take them +16. Same on the total for the game, I can swing it down to 24 and take the over or swing it up to 44 and take the under (which I think it will go way under 44). I call it buying insurance. You don't have to buy the 10 you can buy anything from a half point to 10, in half point increments. 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 and so on. The more you buy the more it cost you, but the greater the odds of winning. Baltimore +6 right now is -110, +16 is -720 and +14.5 is -570. I may just do the +14.5 but you can never have too may points. You just have to have the bank to bet this way.

Steelers-24    Ravens-6

and this is why....

time to throw out the weather when you have two teams that go all yearin shitty weather and are playing to be a part of the biggest game in all of sports. its gonna be a hard hitting game...it will be WAR. There are 3 reasons why Pittsburgh is going to win this game...

1. JOE FLACCO- As im sure you guys know by the username i am a steeler fan...i have pride in my city. But ill be the first to admit i love joe flacco...hate his stats but his swagger carries the baltimore offense, the guy just isnt statisticly impressive, and i think this is where his first year ride ends(dont worry he'll be back) if the steelers bottle up mcclain(didnt include mcgahee because i dont think he will be a factor like mcclain will be) the ravens will just turn to flacco too early and i dont think he has enough to beat pittsburgh as proven before.

2.WILLIE PARKER-Im all about Mewelde when we play our first 16, but when it means something its fast willie time. he had a breakout game last week and it wasnt a fluke. if ben can carry out his fakes like he did last week. it will throw a tough baltimore defense off. our line showed its first signs of life last week and they're gonna move people this week and get to the second level and take Lewis, Scott, and Sizzle. and then its willie vs. the secondary just like Chris Johnson did. I know the dude runs a 4.2 40 but when he's got holes my 300 pound brother could get five yards a play on...its what we call a field day.....(PS i dont wanna see the ball in the air with ed reed floating around anyhow)

3.DICK LEBEAU-The guy is a defensive genius and is gonna throw packages at Flacco that even the football gods are gonna say "what on earth, where did he come from", and in my heart i really just dont believe anyone on the baltimore sideline is going to know how to counteract.

BOL betting this week fellas and i hope i gave a little help...I know a lot of football fans look for close games as well as i do...but when i need to take the edge off every 3 minutes i pray for a blowout

Quote Originally Posted by bentladdle:

Ravens+6 and the under at 33.5 This site has turned into a joke. I have given up trying to read any sensible analysis from about 90% of the post on this site. I suggest that the 90% who rant and rave go somewhere else. And the avatars, which are sexual, show how frustrated one is with sex. GROW UP.

 

90% like the points and it went up  your balt +6  pick  is a joke. sex must frustrate you your lack of it makes you look at pics in a sexual way. all that build up, go run one off and bet on pitt this game will not be close. i would rather look at beautiful women then your little boy pics can't stand people that need to show they were a kid once, see the same crap in poker. must of been your peak in life. pitt by at least 8 

Quote Originally Posted by bentladdle:

Taking the Ravens to win outright at +220 ML. Looking for Ravens D to get to Pitt QB and shake him up. Three concussions are a factor. Ray Lewis could play the game of his life because he may not get to the AFC game in his career again. Also placing a bet on Ravens -5. I usually don't factor weather into a game at this level, but I am looking at the impact on a 6:30 start, with Sunday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 20s. Lows 10 to 15.

Weather is going to be a factor in the play calling. Three Rivers has had turf problems. I like to say that I don't see a lot of points scored in this game. THe ovr/und is bouncing back from 33-34, presently 33.5 at one of the casinos I go to. I think bettors will move this line up. I am looking at the und of 33.5, however I think this is a 17-14, or 20-17 at the most. Thats five TD's and is it not difficult to hit a field goal at TRS outside of 39 yards. Going to the casino to check the lines.

do you even watch the games same weather last week, keep betting that under .who needs feild goals when flacco is throwing ints. piit is the most physical team there is. thats tomlin's mentality. tenn should of blew out baltimore and now balt is beat up.i hope espn shows the weather before the game that always drives the total down. i wasnt going to mess with the total but since you like the under ill take the over. pitt will play intense and not let up and throw in some ints and it could get ugly early. baltimore defense will try but there offense will not be any help.

I dont know how anyone can say Pitt is gonna win this in a blowout...Ever heard of Rivalry...YES WE KNOW FLACCO is a ROOKIE....Thank you espn.com, nfl.com, and every other person that says it WE GET IT WE KNOW!!! But guess what That rookie went into Miami and did what he had to do.....that said rookie knocked of the #1 seed in the AFC.....so before everyone and their mom jumps all over Pitt -6 because Flacco only completes 44% of his passes....those are all stats...This game will be a blood bath and it will be decided by less than a TD....You have to be a fool to take pitt -6

GO RAVENSSSSSSSSSS

F THE STEELERS

I dont know how anyone can say Pitt is gonna win this in a blowout...Ever heard of Rivalry...YES WE KNOW FLACCO is a ROOKIE....Thank you espn.com, nfl.com, and every other person that says it WE GET IT WE KNOW!!! But guess what That rookie went into Miami and did what he had to do.....that said rookie knocked of the #1 seed in the AFC.....so before everyone and their mom jumps all over Pitt -6 because Flacco only completes 44% of his passes....those are all stats...This game will be a blood bath and it will be decided by less than a TD....You have to be a fool to take pitt -6

GO RAVENSSSSSSSSSS

F THE STEELERS

I don't think it will be a blowout but PITT should win this game by 7-14 points. As Ravens fan bigrazz just mentioned a few posts ago Rolle is out and it looks more and more likely that Suggs isn't going to play. Not to mention the numerous other injuries the Ravens have. Antwan Barnes is still out, Leonhard got a concussion last game, Heap has bad ribs and a sore back, McClain has a bad ankle, Reed has a bad knee. Just because it's a rivalry doesn't mean a team can't blow the other one out. Or did you miss last weekends Eagles/Giants game? 23-11 was the final. You can also look at the last time these two teams met in 2002, 28-10 Steelers. Rivalry has nothing to do with it. You have to look at the two teams as they are right now. One is injured and tired, the other is healthy and fresh.

And yes Flacco is struggling right now. You have to take that into consideration. Only completing 44% of your passes is a huge problem. That's not going to scare any defense away from stacking the line, stopping the run and forcing Flacco to beat you, especially the Steelers. Do you have confidence in Flacco if the Ravens are down 7 in the 4th and they need him to drive them down the field? I don't. He didn't win those games in Miami and Tennessee, the defense did with their ability to cause turnovers. The only thing Flacco did well in those games was protect the ball. He's going to have to do more than that in this one. Especially with how injured that defense is.

If I placed my bet with the Ravens -6 early in the week thinking that getting 6 points was a gift from Vegas I would be looking at ways to hedge my bet right now.

PITTSBURGH ML HUGE- I can't say that enough                        

all these origonal screen names...

I don't know what to do....

well I hope everyone knows who the origonal is.....

I WAS on the Ravens +6.... but without SUGGS and ROLLE my confidence on this bet is decreasing rapidly...

Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are playing still right?

I know breakdabook threw me off there. I thought you changed your name. I'm thinking about changing my screen name to breakdabookie or breakabook. Which one sounds better?

Reed and Lewis are good to go. Reed does have knee problem though. GL with whatever you decide.