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Baltimore at Denver (01/12/2013)

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ApocalypseLater

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Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 3:42 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by packerfan1102:

If you like points then take Houston an up and coming team not Balt who is on a decline. Ray Lewis??? he had his last home game and win. If he looked any more hurt he would have been in a wheel chair. They did him a justice doing all the can to get him on the field. Did you see that brace on his arm? Looked like a robotic harm with about 40% use. Baltimore is done no chance in this one.

very interesting that this is the first time i've seen anyone talk about this... it's almost like nobody was actually watching the game or something...

the guy is so gimpy it's painful to watch... this is how he's going out?

and yea... he's going out... this weekend!

packerfan1102

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Posts: 33

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 6:40 AM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by southpaw5:

I have been reading everyone's posts on this site for about 6 months and have been betting for last decade for fun not a career so it's all about opinion and way things are percieved. Here's my two cents: Ravens are going to cover. They have a great chance to stop Mannings 11 game win streak su but against a spread of 10 points its not smart money to bet on Denver here. Look at the first matchup 34-17 denver ... ok 17 point win covers easy right? well take a second look at it, suggs was barely back from injury, ray lewis wasn't suited up and it was 10 -0 with less than 1 min left in the first half and Balty had a chance to score from the 2 yard line to make halftime 10-7 instead Flacco misreads route and throws pick 6 making it 17 - 0 halftime. BOTH TEAMS scored 17 in second half. one play and that game is 27 - 24 Denver and game plan changes drastically down 3 and down 17. You have to give Denver credit for doing what they did to earn the number 1 seed but that doesn't entitle them to an easy win here.

I wouldn't compare this game to earlier this season how often do games play out the same? And why doesn"t the D ever get credit for turnovers??? RICE will be shut down and Flacco Picked.DENVER will win I would be shocked if they don't cover 10.

omb1

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Posts: 1762

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 8:15 AM ET #28

Looking at a Denver team that has averaged over 32 PPG at home this year while only giving up 16...I chalk up their early losses to Manning still getting comfortable in a new offense after a year off. Remember as well that those early losses were all against teams still alive in the playoffs - NE, HOU and ATL, with NE and ATL on the road...and these are Denver's only losses on the year.

The Ravens are practically even in points for and against on the road...averaging 18 PPG scored while giving up over 20...they finished the season 1-4 L5G and then beat a rookie QB missing his Offensive Coordinator in a super-emotional Ray Lewis farewell home playoff game...

Denver rolls this weekend. Taking it before it hits -10 or more. Not sure about the total due to weather, figure it comes within a FG on either side of the total.

BRONCOS - ONE HOUSE TO MAKE TWO HOUSES

Turbovtk

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Posts: 1676

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 9:02 AM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by pick-um:

If Flacco throws a pick six in Baltimore i think he throws two pick sixes in Denver c'mon man. You think Flacco is going to get better on the road. History says no. Flacco sucks on the road and he's even worse in "big games". I've heard your reasonings with thew pick six at the end of the half and the 17-17 second half. I see it like this, if Manning wasn't up by dd's then he would have made sure they were, just like he does angaint anyone else, but up dd's on the road in Baltimore sound like its time to protect the football.. thats just what i think..
Go Broncos, its about time!!!!!!!!

You mean up DD like against the Pats?

PAPADON

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Posts: 710

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 9:06 AM ET #30

Everyone has their own belief as to which team they are backing, I respect that.

My belief is that the better QB is the consistent one will will win the game, which is P Manning. Flacco can win but he is like a roller coaster.

I'll take my chances on Denver -9.5

Adastrauss

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Posts: 133

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 9:09 AM ET #31

I'll take my chances on Denver too. :D

BreakaBookie

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Posts: 1743

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 11:01 AM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

very interesting that this is the first time i've seen anyone talk about this... it's almost like nobody was actually watching the game or something...

the guy is so gimpy it's painful to watch... this is how he's going out?

and yea... he's going out... this weekend!

Can you two please give me a call and let me know what you are smoking?

I thought Ray Lewis was ALL OVER THE FIELD last week.... did you see him stop the run?

do you konw who lead the team in tackles?

Ray Lewis.... with 9 tackles.... the only thing he did wrong was drop that pick.... he's a little rusty in the hands, so what lol...

This notion that the Ravens defense is done is just ridiculous....

This was the first game where the big 4, Reed, Lewis, Ngata, and Suggs were all playing together this season...

Weather is going to be 20 degrees.... Ravens can run the ball better than the Broncos... it's gonna be a good game!

SportsFan5

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Posts: 36

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 12:12 PM ET #33

RAVENS MONEYLINE

easiest money you've ever made!

ApocalypseLater

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Posts: 4260

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 4:18 PM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by omb1:

Denver rolls this weekend. Taking it before it hits -10 or more. Not sure about the total due to weather, figure it comes within a FG on either side of the total.

BRONCOS - ONE HOUSE TO MAKE TWO HOUSES

great post! hysterical how terrible the majority of this forum is at capping what is a remedial football game (from a handicapper's standpoint)...

ApocalypseLater

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Posts: 4260

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 4:20 PM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by BreakaBookie:

Can you two please give me a call and let me know what you are smoking?

I thought Ray Lewis was ALL OVER THE FIELD last week.... did you see him stop the run?

do you konw who lead the team in tackles?

Ray Lewis.... with 9 tackles.... the only thing he did wrong was drop that pick.... he's a little rusty in the hands, so what lol...

This notion that the Ravens defense is done is just ridiculous....

This was the first game where the big 4, Reed, Lewis, Ngata, and Suggs were all playing together this season...

Weather is going to be 20 degrees.... Ravens can run the ball better than the Broncos... it's gonna be a good game!

yea... i saw him stop ONE running play, and then do a friggin celebration dance... i also saw him look friggin horrendous in pass coverage... saw him drop a pass that was practically taped to his hands for him, and saw him SLOW AS A MOTHER guy...

it cracks me up that you are putting your money and faith in THAT guy this weekend... that guy is so friggin washed up i feel embarrassed watching him play now...

he should have hung it up after last season... now we will forever remember his this way....

GETTING HIS behind RUN OFF THE FIELD BY 5 TDs....

good bye Ray Ray!... and all of your blind friggin fans...

ApocalypseLater

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Posts: 4260

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 4:21 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by BreakaBookie:

This notion that the Ravens defense is done is just ridiculous....

stay tuned......

ApocalypseLater

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Posts: 4260

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 4:30 PM ET #37

same breakdown i did for the Seahawks / Falcons game on another thread, using the 7 factors that i weigh the strongest during NFL playoffs...

Rushing offense (edge: Ravens)
Total defense (edge: Broncos)
Defense pts allowed (edge: Broncos)
SU / ATS record last 7 games (BIG edge: Broncos)
SU / ATS record last 4 games (BIG edge: Broncos)
S.O.S. (EVEN)
QB / Coach (HUGE edge: Broncos)

season is over for the Ravens... only question is the spread...

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 5051

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 4:46 PM ET #38

Without Manning, Denver would have had trouble making the playoffs. Future Hall of Famer Manning is a master at reading defenses. And as much as I love Ray Ray, it's time to hang up the cleats and call it a career. Ray Lewis will be on the field for leadership & inspiration. The Ravens still have enough "young bucks" to stymie any offense, however it will not be enough. Least I remind everyone that Peyton "was and still is" one neck injury from retiring himself! Flacco has played "lights out" last year in the playoffs against the Patriots, only to miss going to the SB because of a dropped TD pass, and finally by a missed FG! Seeing the Broncos by 7-8 points.

BALTIMORE + 9.5

sodbuster925

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Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 5:06 PM ET #39

yea i like denver here even tho theyre giving a ton of points i cant see flacco doing much against a really good denver team plus i think the altitude might have some effect on the ravens not sure but thats just my opinion gl guys

forkball

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Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 5:06 PM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

same breakdown i did for the Seahawks / Falcons game on another thread, using the 7 factors that i weigh the strongest during NFL playoffs...

Rushing offense (edge: Ravens)
Total defense (edge: Broncos)
Defense pts allowed (edge: Broncos)
SU / ATS record last 7 games (BIG edge: Broncos)
SU / ATS record last 4 games (BIG edge: Broncos)
S.O.S. (EVEN)
QB / Coach (HUGE edge: Broncos)

POINTS 4 AND 5 ARE USELESS. DENVER HAS THE BETTER QB BUT NOT THE BETTER COACH, LOOK AT THE TRACK RECORDS, NOT EVEN CLOSE.

REPLACE 4 AND 5 WITH "TEAM" PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE.

RAVENS +10.5

season is over for the Ravens... only question is the spread...

ApocalypseLater

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Posts: 4260

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 5:17 PM ET #41

Quote Originally Posted by forkball:

POINTS 4 AND 5 ARE USELESS. DENVER HAS THE BETTER QB BUT NOT THE BETTER COACH, LOOK AT THE TRACK RECORDS, NOT EVEN CLOSE.

points 4 and 5 are the key to making that list work... before i started factoring in which teams finished the year strong, i was getting inconsistent results... if you disregard those factors, you're not gonna be on top of it...

also, i think John Fox is one of the most underrated coaches in NFL history... he took a 1-15 expansion team, and turned them into a SB team in two years, losing to the Pats on a last-second Vinatieri FG...

i'll take Fox over Smith all the time... but the HUGE edge is at QB... the coaches are a push, basically... still, your points are all wrong...

NRZE

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Posts: 2

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 5:28 PM ET #42

All I know is i'm PUMPED to see Ray Lewis' final game in the NFL live and in person. Balmy 22 degrees for the high and Mile High is going to be ELECTRIC ! Can't wait !

Now with that out of the way, I don't see much of a change from a couple weeks ago when these teams met... I mean yes, Ray Lewis is back, but that actually is counterproductive this week as i believe the Ravens shot their emotional "wad" on the Colts and Ray-Ray's last home game last week. Also, Denver still has Joe Fucko on their side.. he'll be good for at least 1 more pick Saturday. See Denver covering -9... Baltimore could score a garbage time TD late to make it closer, but this game isn't going to be that close.

Denver 31 Baltimore 17

forkball

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Posts: 566

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 7:23 PM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

points 4 and 5 are the key to making that list work... before i started factoring in which teams finished the year strong, i was getting inconsistent results... if you disregard those factors, you're not gonna be on top of it...

also, i think John Fox is one of the most underrated coaches in NFL history... he took a 1-15 expansion team, and turned them into a SB team in two years, losing to the Pats on a last-second Vinatieri FG...

i'll take Fox over Smith all the time... but the HUGE edge is at QB... the coaches are a push, basically... still, your points are all wrong...

POINTS 4 AND 5 ARE USELESS. CAPPING IS ABOUT MATCHUPS. AND WHO IS SMITH?

Coloneljim

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Posts: 25139

Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 8:37 PM ET #44

I remember in 2008 a Fox coached Carolina team gave Arizona 10 points in a playoff game. Needless to say Fox lost the game by 20. I'm not saying he will lose here but, if I'm going to lose my money, it will be on Harbaugh. Better coach and he just might find a way to win this one su.

Mile High City - 27 Crab Capital of the World - 21

Ravens +9.5 over 46

Crab Cakes and a case of Yuengling Lager and the Colonel is set for a Saturday night of football....Don't forget the can of Kick azz Beer Nuts. Flacco certainly can give the old colonel a bad case of acid indigestion. .

Baltimore - Over

DrDogs

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Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 11:20 PM ET #45

The colonel is krunk. Good pass the Chesapeake bay stout. Balt and und for the large.

If you’re not large, you’re small - the DOC

DrDogs

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Posted: Jan. 9, 2013 - 11:21 PM ET #46

I meant ovah!

If you’re not large, you’re small - the DOC

mlp33181

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Posts: 76

Posted: Jan. 10, 2013 - 12:21 AM ET #47

The Ravens aren't as good on the road. Their average yard per play at home is 2nd in the NFL but they have the 3rd worst yards per play average on the road. Broncos are ranked #2 in average yard per play over all. Broncos are just a much better team! They are #4 in offense & #2 in defense while the Ravens have the #16 offense & #17 defense. Manning has absolutely dominated the Ravens defense for over a decade now & have beaten them 9 straight times including twice in the post season when the Ravens had a top tier defense.

Flacco just isn't the same QB on the road throwing only 7 TDS, 5 Interceptions & only completing 56.9% of his passes. I see this game being lower scoring than last time but the same outcome. Broncos were up 31-3 before letting their foot off the gas in Baltimore but I'm thinking this game will be 30-10 Broncos.

degengambler34

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Posts: 3661

Posted: Jan. 10, 2013 - 2:03 AM ET #48

1. Flacco on the road against a great (they are) defense

2. Suggs and lewis are banged up not close to 100 percent (anyone who watched the ravens the last few weeks has noticed how slow suggs is now, actually all year. And although ray lewis played spirited last week he also looked awful in pass coverage and manning will be looking to exploit him with a slot receiver early and often.)

3. Very shaky offensive line pass coverage by the ravens. You guys saw what mathis was doing to this team last week. Flacco wasn't changing snap counts (because hes flacco...) and the guy was practically in the backfield on every play. Now he gets to face the two best edge rushers in the nfl in dumervil and von miller, along with a SIGNIFICANTLY better secondary.

Alot of people point to the denver ravens game and the pick 6 when making a case for the ravens. Saying the game would have been much closer if not for flaccos monumental failure on that pick 6. I watched the entire game and im here to tell you denver could have put up 55 in that game if they didnt let their foot off the gas. Also flacco got very lucky not to get strip sacked a few more times.

My hard earned money isnt going with either side in this game just because i think its somewhat possible that the ravens could backdoor cover the inflated number. But theres no way in hell unless PM gets hurt that they can win this game.

ApocalypseLater

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Posts: 4260

Posted: Jan. 10, 2013 - 3:18 AM ET #49

Quote Originally Posted by forkball:

POINTS 4 AND 5 ARE USELESS. CAPPING IS ABOUT MATCHUPS.

by disregarding points 4 and 5 you are disregarding the fact that Baltimore lost 4 of their last 5 games of the season...

but i know how we can settle this debate... if Baltimore wins or keeps it close, then points 4 and 5 are irrelevant... if Denver embarrasses them, then points 4 and 5 are the reason i got it right and you didn't...